Trump 2.0 official thread

[horse]

Chinese port fees is to prevent orders from going to Korean and Japanese shipyards. You have to understand the purpose of the America port fees is NOT to shift ship building to the US. The true purpose is to reduce orders to Chinese shipyards by forcing them to non-Chinese ones.

If I was in charge, and a good thing I am not, subsidize the Chinese ship building.

Make prices so low, that it will wipe out the competition.

 

[horse]

He wants to see the dollar remain the world's reserve currency but he wants the US to be a creditor nation and bring back manufacturing. That's like looking left and looking right at the same time. This administration is an embarrassment for Americans.

Yup, absolutely, agree completely.

That was basically that Miran report and Mar-go-logo Accords.

It was too crazy to even have a chance.

Everyone played their part too.

China hit back hard, like said it would, on several occasions.

Then finally seeing that China is not backing down and decoupling for good, the EU and Japan grows some balls and now reject to always giving more concessions to Trump.

Plan A was a crackpot theory that was very dangerous if implemented, dangerous for them and them only, but they still did it. Unbelievable. Then we get to the predictable part with the Americans, there never is a Plan B.

Embarrassing, but funny.

That is why I still like the Americans. Even they will admit it is embarrassing.

The Europeans, they will not. They will double down like a Zelenshy.

 

[horse]

Nah, we don't want their shit anymore and we don't wanna make shit for them anymore. What's the goal? Trade 2% of our GDP for the US to go into recession and see if they can eventually rebalance themselves into an economy that lives within its means and with a much reduced standard of living compared to when they were living on Chinese goods. See how their global talent recruitment goes then.

What is the deal? Or tade-offs?

In other words, what is important, is the likely outcomes, just my opinion that is what we should be looking at.

For China, GDP growth probably be at least 4% this year, and should be higher with the heavy stimulus put into the economy. The trade surplus will probably remain near one trillion, when it is that big who is counting. The internal development of the economy going more high tech will be unimpeded.

Those three things, GDP numbers, trading volume, and tech development on the cutting edge, this trade war between China and America is not something will be a real obstacle for China.

For America, it is a little different, because the tariffs will cause inflation, that is a political problem for Trump. There is also a real risk of shortages of stuff for America that can cause production problems, such as when everything was shut down in America for covid this time it could be worst and probably will be worst if China and America cannot agree to a deal.

Then something unknown happened, because when the market was going down those days, it really did look like a financial crisis was going to break out if the silliness did not stop.

Trump has to make a deal, there is no way out for him.

That is why this whole situation was so bizarre. A random shitposter like me can see the obvious, just like everyone else who follow this kind of stuff, it was too obvious what would happen, except for the potential financial crisis. That was new and really dangerous.

Why did they do it?

No one knows.

 

[horse]

There will be no deal.

I think there will be a deal.

To make a long story short, forget about making an argument for or against, blah blah blah, there probably is just one reason here.

The PRC would like to avoid a financial crisis in the US.

A financial crisis in America, is a worldwide financial crisis. China will be fine, but the developing world who are China's biggest trading partner could be in some serious trouble.

Best to avoid all that bs and just keep business running.

No tariff reduction between China and America with a supply side shock too, that is a full blown crisis for the US.

The markets spoke loud and clear about that not that long ago.

 

[horse]

It would be strange to punish SK and Japan for US action. I'd wait and see, if they bend the knee to Trump then China retaliate away, otherwise we can talk

The strong do what the can. The weak suffer what they must.

China was patient. It let South Korea and Japan chose, for themselves. No pressure was applied.

If they wanted to avoid the question, that has consequences too. Nothing personal, just business.

If they had more foresight, maybe things could be different.

Still, it is not game over. We see what develops.

 

[plawolf]

I think there will be a deal.

To make a long story short, forget about making an argument for or against, blah blah blah, there probably is just one reason here.

The PRC would like to avoid a financial crisis in the US.

A financial crisis in America, is a worldwide financial crisis. China will be fine, but the developing world who are China's biggest trading partner could be in some serious trouble.

Best to avoid all that bs and just keep business running.

No tariff reduction between China and America with a supply side shock too, that is a full blown crisis for the US.

The markets spoke loud and clear about that not that long ago.

You are falling for the western narrative that China only cares about money and profits.

This isn’t about money or trade any more, this is a fight to the death economically, and China won’t stop until it is sure it has dealt a lethal blow to the American economy that it will never recover from.

You cannot achieve that without a global economic crisis the likes of which the world has not seen before, and unfortunately that means massive economic pain globally, if not an economic mass extinction event.

We have not yet even started to feel that pain yet, but we will, and as that pain grows, so will the global pressure for China to relent, but China won’t. Instead it will offer the world a New Deal, rebalance your trade and security arrangements to put Beijing at the centre, or die with the old Washington economic world order.

 

[horse]

It is World Bank week here in DC and so there are lots of foreign economic and financial officials and big investors in town. Earlier today JPMorgan held a private meeting at which US Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke. Bloomberg broke the story about his comments on the US-China trade war, writing:

Bessent told a closed-door investor summit Tuesday that the tariff standoff with China cannot be sustained by both sides and that the world’s two largest economies will have to find ways to de-escalate.

That de-escalation will come in the very near future, Bessent said during an event hosted by JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Washington, which wasn’t open to the public or media. He characterized the current situation as essentially a trade embargo, according to people who attended the session.

But then the cleanup began, with reports from the Financial Times and

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

that people are reading too much into his comments.

​

And from the

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

:

Although Bessent expressed optimism that a deal would be reached at some point, he cautioned that there were no diplomatic negotiations between the countries to end the trade war.

Two people familiar with his remarks said however that there were no signs that Beijing and Washington were anywhere close to finding a solution and that markets were reading too much into his remarks.

One person said it was unclear if Trump agreed with his Treasury secretary.

Eamon Javers of

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

what he said was a rough transcript of Bessent’s comments. This section sounds like what Trump tried and failed to get in his first term, and then had to settle for a disappointing purchase deal while kicking structural reforms to a Phase 2 that was never going to happen, and did not happen:

​

I believe the report from about six months ago to which Bessent referred is “

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

” from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

PRC Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an will be in DC for part of this week to attend the World Bank meetings, so perhaps there could be a meeting, but if there is not that is probably another sign of no actual progress towards even discussions to talk about an off-ramp. I am skeptical there will be a meeting.

Given the audience - representatives of some of the biggest capitalist organizations in the world - it is not a stretch to imagine Bessent’s comments will be seen by PRC policymakers as another sign that US resolve is weakening, especially on a day when the Wall Street Journal leads with this headline:

​

I got a different interpretation.

What we were seeing with those tariffs was completely nuts.

It will lead straight to economic ruin, who knows how long the recession will be with a trade embargo like that from both sides, and the markets were threatening loud and clear the financial crisis will start if this crazy policy is not reversed.

This is not about resolve.

This is about a bunch of people in power, who may have totally lost it.

They seemed so clueless, that their stupidity was about to bring the whole system down.

What the market wants to see, is evidence of no more economic and financial insanity only directed at oneself, the United States of America.

Does anyone have a clue in the White House?

It did not seem that way, therefore the markets started to meltdown, a few days ago.

That is the real question. Not about how much resolve and eat bitterness those morality stories. The real question is how could they be this stupid?

It is beyond belief. Simply saying it is arrogance does not cut it either. They were so clueless it cannot be described.

It is what David Goldman said, that the United States import most of it capital goods from China, which are goods to make goods. With tariffs at 145% then good luck to making anything!

Haha!

What the bleep were they thinking?

In China, they look back in wonderment.

Where do they find these people?

 

[ougoah]

Nah, we don't want their shit anymore and we don't wanna make shit for them anymore. What's the goal? Trade 2% of our GDP for the US to go into recession and see if they can eventually rebalance themselves into an economy that lives within its means and with a much reduced standard of living compared to when they were living on Chinese goods. See how their global talent recruitment goes then.

2% is a bit hard to believe. Then again that's all down to how GDP is calculated by China.

Let's focus on what the US market is as a proportion of total Chinese export by value and volume/weight. I don't have the data but it's still not as high as people imagine when I recall reading this up. Something like 15%?

I think however much losing the US as an export customer hurts in lost income, it is basically an economic nuke detonated in the US. It will accelerate the destruction of US society as we know it and they have no immediate solution except to potentially lower their living standards so much that one thing gives or the other.

Plus Chinese exports to the US in the past is just to make USD. USD is going to continue declining in value and this is something that the US currently wants. China cannot buy anything meaningful with the USD. If China can form bilateral trade agreements with other major trading partners then it will have no need to go through the USD on that trade anyway.

The fundamental prize behind all this is the technology and expertise required to become truly self sufficient. China is the only nation that is actually closest to being totally tech self sufficient. No one else except the US, Japan, Germany, France and South Korea comes close.

China still needs to preserve trade with the rest of the world particularly in energy, raw materials, food and tech (this will be the first to become properly self sufficient).

US can go eff itself like it threatened the world it would be doing... and now backing down. China absolutely needs to hammer the US and strike it down while the iron is hot.

 

[horse]

You are falling for the western narrative that China only cares about money and profits.

This isn’t about money or trade any more, this is a fight to the death economically, and China won’t stop until it is sure it has dealt a lethal blow to the American economy that it will never recover from.

You cannot achieve that without a global economic crisis the likes of which the world has not seen before, and unfortunately that means massive economic pain globally, if not an economic mass extinction event.

We have not yet even started to feel that pain yet, but we will, and as that pain grows, so will the global pressure for China to relent, but China won’t. Instead it will offer the world a New Deal, rebalance your trade and security arrangements to put Beijing at the centre, or die with the old Washington economic world order.

Economics is never static, it keeps on going.

After this worldwide financial crisis, and there will be one if China and America cannot come to a deal within about a month, then what will be the growth rates of China and America after this financial crisis?

China probably will be growing GDP around 5%.

United States probably will be growing GDP around 2% or less.

That is kind of like the situation already we have today.

So it makes no sense to induce a financial crisis which will destroy people in those years of recession, to achieve the same outcome we already have, that we are living through today!

Furthermore, we already seen this movie before, once in 2008 and with covid. Both times America came out of those crisis stronger than ever.

Both times America came out of those crisis stronger than ever, relative to itself, but not relative to China.

In fact, China seems to be doing relatively better than America, with or without a financial crisis.

So, why do we need one?

 

[dingyibvs]

Nah, we don't want their shit anymore and we don't wanna make shit for them anymore. What's the goal? Trade 2% of our GDP for the US to go into recession and see if they can eventually rebalance themselves into an economy that lives within its means and with a much reduced standard of living compared to when they were living on Chinese goods. See how their global talent recruitment goes then.

The US is going to a recession regardless. The issue here is uncertainty. If there's a deal, people will keep buying the same from China, but no one will be expanding, as no one knows when the tariffs will be back on. They'll simply stock up, which will drive up the trade deficit, which will be negative for GDP calculations, and add inefficiency, while no one will be investing for any growth.

America's issue is structural, it's not something that can be easily fixed. At the same time, it's also got enough power, soft or hard, to continue on for quite a while longer. Xi would be delusional to think he can deal a death blow to the US right now. IMO China believes that the US is beyond reform right now, it needs a revolution, it needs to fall before there can be the possibility of a rebirth. I do believe that Xi believes that as well, so it stands to reason that China's main goal right now is not to bring about America's downfall because it believes that it'll happen anyway, but instead China's goal would be to avoid collateral damage and maximally profit from it.

IMO China will make a deal, then move on to strengthening itself while letting the US be distracted by whatever Trump's next whim is.