Just look at where the US bases in the Western Pacific are. They're in Japan and Philippines. In order for China to push them out, they would have to start a war, invade those countries, win, and probably have to put up permanent occupation forces. This isn't a viable plan; it's pure madness. Maybe if China was weakening year by year, and they'd try to pull something wild off. But right now, China is in an excellent position, and every day that passes strengthens said position.
And it's not as if military tensions and arms races would go away after a war. No, I think that the idea that China would gain from any offensive military action is untrue, and the CMC is fully aware of this. The sad thing is that the American strategists don't seem to get this.
There's no way for Zelensky to accept any peace deal where Ukraine loses any territory. Too many people have died, and too much rhetoric has been built up to allow that. Maybe it'd have been different if he had been party to the Alaska talks, but even that's very unlikely. Russia would only accept a deal where they get to keep just about all the territory they control. So in the end, it means that the US now has an excuse to wash their hands of the Ukraine war and let Europe shoulder the entire load. This should probably serve as a warning how reliable the US is as an ally.
I don't think the US wants to bully Europe (or even Ukraine). They just want to get out of the Ukrainian cesspool. There's also a chance that Trump thinks that this peace initiative would work, but surely he can't be that dumb.
