I have a thought. Everyone looks at the Trump Regime currently self-immolating it's own soft-power and diplomatic institutions as stupidity and ritual suicide. But what if it's simply Trump (or rather his advisors) coming to the realization that these American soft power institutions are pointless going forward because of America's crumbling military and economic hard power?
Not exactly. Trump is principally doing what he is doing to
purge domestic enemies, or at least what he considers to be the federal infrastructure enabling and empowering them, for now.
Trump blames hostile elements from within the American
national security establishment, including various elites and their underlings from the CIA, FBI, DoJ, USAID, NED, etc., for an assortment of misfortunes and troubles that have befallen him and those close to him since 2016.
The sitting US President is convinced that these domestic enemies defamed him during his successful campaign for the presidency in 2016; sabotaged his first term and therefore his first round of
well intended efforts to Make America Great Again™; stole the 2020 election from him; maliciously prosecuted him thereafter in both civil and criminal court; and viciously, if not violently impeded his return to the Oval Office in 2024.
At a minimum, Trump's enemies from within the US government definitely tried to lock him up:
There are other reasons as to why Trump would hate some of these federal agencies and elements thereof, as well as adjacent elites and entities, but I imagine I've made my point.
Just how much substance there is to Trump's many allegations of victimhood is beyond the scope of this post. However, I will acknowledge that large swaths of the cleared federal workforce — especially those outside of the DoD and certain law enforcement agencies like ICE and CBP — tend to absolutely despise Trump.
I don't personally think Trump deserves all the hate he gets. I actually like certain things about him, despite my fondness for snark while commenting!
However, at this point I've learned to appreciate the
surreal lawlz and enjoy the
comical absurdities of the Trump administration's many dumpster fires and train wrecks while savoring my popcorn . . .
Regardless, Trump knows there's value to agencies like State, NED and USAID, but from his perspective:
when some of your attack dogs keep on biting you and your kids, there's no choice but to put 'em down.
On top of that, Republicans have historically or at least nominally favored
small(er) government, never mind the not so insignificant desire and many public calls for reining in the federal deficit and ever growing national debt. The push for a more balanced federal budget won't get anywhere given the agenda and populist tendencies of the Trump administration, but they do provide convenient pretext for all sorts of downsizing, cuts and layoffs regardless of their actual purpose.
Also, perhaps these advisors have come to the conclusion that rather than trying to oppose China in all realms, which has become somewhat untenable, they instead should focus on a few hard power (or sharp power) realms where they might have a glimmer of hope of at least keeping China within earshot of parity? After all, why bother spending billions bribing poor countries to like you and regime changing the ones that don't when a.) they probably won't like you anyway and b.) couping and regime-changing a few countries no longer gets you enough benefit to be worth the cost. And fundamentally, your billions in soft power spending aren't going to move the needle on the one country you really care about, which is China.
Nope, Trump and company will keep on opposing China in
all realms "within reason," or at least keep on trying and failing.
Some of Trump's subordinates of subordinates at the deputy ministerial level — Bridge Colby being perhaps the most publicly visible example and downstream — got coherent, comprehensive and relatively or even
arguably viable(-ish) plans for countering the rise of Pax Sinica, at least on paper.
However, with everything else going on, both domestically and internationally: there ain't enough political capital or sufficient material resources for the US to systematically or otherwise meaningfully implement an impactful, coherent and comprehensive containment strategy against the Middle Kingdom.
Looking at the ongoing conflicts with Israel-Iran and thereabouts, as well as with Ukraine-Russia, it's pretty obvious that the DoD lacks the requisite magazine depths for challenging the PLA in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, especially without significant and direct military contributions from Japan and Australia, if not also South Korea and other (potential) military partners. However, none of these countries are exactly pleased with Trump, or feeling particularly optimistic about the US at the current juncture.
Not to say the challenges that the US face in credibly confronting China are technically insurmountable, but any sort of "serious solution" will necessitate and inflict visible, if not severe
economic pains that both the donor class generally speaking and the hoi polloi broadly speaking don't and won't want to bear, unless forced upon them by a hot war.
However, "managed decline" or even a "grand bargain" is
not politically palatable either, at least not yet, especially with Congress and the
nationalistic, but generally uninformed MAGA base. As a result,
the Trump administration will keep on throwing half-assed and at times obnoxious punches against China — yet achieve little to nothing, if not do more harm than good — due to an inability to focus their attention and prioritize finite resources against the Celestial Empire, never mind the American public's utter intolerance for the painful economic tradeoffs needed for
actually, seriously contesting the rise of Pax Sinica.
When it comes to China, and arguably more broadly speaking in terms of foreign policy, Trump is akin to a smart kid with
ADHD: smart enough to have some "good" or at least "novel" ideas, but
too disorganized, unsteady and distracted to actually achieve anything.