Trump 2.0 official thread

JJD1803

Junior Member
Registered Member
Lol. Did something happen? The major indexes literally nose dived off the cliff. No news either.
Word is there was a weak treasury bond auction for the 20 year yield. And when you look at the 2,10 and 30 year bond yields they keep going up. Trump is facing his own Liz Truss moment. The bond market is basically saying they do not like his “big beautiful bill.” People were asking the reason for bond yields spiking was that people are selling to get cash to buy stocks. That isn’t the case. Bond yields were going up before the Moody’s downgrade. Trump team and the GOP are too arrogant to listen to the bond market. They want that bill to pass. Doesn’t help also the US is in the midst of a trade war. If this keeps up we could see coordinated dumping of bonds by China and other nations. I never thought this would happen soon. I thought by the mid 2030s a US debt crisis might emerge. This is a bit frightening.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
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House Reconciliation Bill Could Trigger $500 Billion in Mandatory Medicare Cuts​

One consequence of the reconciliation bill that is making its way to the House floor is more than $500 billion in Medicare cuts between 2026 and 2034.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the reconciliation bill reported out of the House Budget Committee would increase the deficit compared to current law by at least $2.3 trillion.

If enacted into law in its current form, and Congress takes no further action, that increase in the deficit would trigger mandatory cuts, also known as sequestration, under the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010.

Unlike Social Security and programs for low-income people, Medicare is not exempt from these cuts.

Triggering Statutory PAYGO would mean an automatic 4% reduction to most Medicare spending. That includes payments to hospitals, physicians and health care providers, Medicare Advantage plans, and standalone prescription drug plans.

The cuts to hospitals are on top of the effects of Medicaid changes included in the legislation. Some spending to support low-income beneficiaries is exempt, but most Medicare spending is not.

The purpose of Statutory PAYGO was to impose some budget discipline.

However, the across-the-board cuts triggered by the law have never been allowed to go into effect because Congress has either excluded those effects from the “scorecard” as part of the underlying legislation or later acted to exclude or delay the effects.

For example, neither the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act nor 2021 American Rescue Plan resulted in automatic cuts despite large increases in the federal deficit.

Congress could choose to take action before the end of the year to block implementation of the cuts as it has done in the past. Unlike the reconciliation bill, excluding the effects of legislation from the PAYGO scorecard requires 60 votes, rather than a simple majority in the Senate, which is a higher hurdle.
House Budget Committee would increase the deficit compared to current law by at least $2.3 trillion.
 

lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
Every single accountant, lawyer, finance guy and real estate agent will change their employment and commission contracts and now be paid minimum wage and accept "gratuities" for their service.
It's only a 25k limit but it's more the systematic destruction of tax collection, so it's aligning the US with pre-crisis Greece...

If nobody you know pays taxes because of loopholes and cheating, and nobody does audits anymore. Why should you pay either?
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
It's only a 25k limit but it's more the systematic destruction of tax collection, so it's aligning the US with pre-crisis Greece...

If nobody you know pays taxes because of loopholes and cheating, and nobody does audits anymore. Why should you pay either?

The issue isn’t so much that they evade taxes but that they openly flaunt exploitation of tax loopholes as something smart people do. Plenty of celebrities and influencers evade taxes in China too, but it is very stigmatized.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
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Food stamps face ‘biggest cut in the program’s history’ under GOP tax bill​

As Republicans push forward with the “big, beautiful” tax bill, federal food assistance may see big cuts.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, may be cut about 30% under the terms of the bill, which would be the “biggest cut in the program’s history,” according to Ty Jones Cox, vice president for food assistance policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

SNAP, formerly known as food stamps, currently provides food assistance to more than 40 million individuals including children, seniors and adults with disabilities.

Yet cuts to the program proposed by the House — which would shrink the program’s funding by about $300 billion through 2034 — would put those benefits at risk.

“The House Republican plan would take away food assistance for millions who struggle to afford the high cost of groceries, including families with children and other vulnerable people with low incomes,” Cox said during a Tuesday webinar hosted by the CBPP, a progressive think tank.

The SNAP reform efforts come amid a broader effort to reduce waste and fraud in government programs. SNAP, like other government benefits, can be susceptible to improper or fraudulent payments.

The “one big, beautiful bill restores integrity to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program,” House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., said in a May 14 statement, through “long-overdue accountability incentives to control costs and end executive and state overreach.”

Many Americans cite high food costs as a top economic concern, according to an April Pew Research Center survey. If new tariff policies are put into effect, that could prompt food prices to go higher.

Moreover, the proposed SNAP cuts come as some experts say the U.S. is facing higher recession risks. In previous downturns, every additional dollar spent on SNAP generates about $1.54 in returns to the economy, according to Elaine Waxman, senior fellow at the Urban Institute’s tax and income support division.

“People spend SNAP dollars right away, and they spend them locally,” Waxman said.

The proposed SNAP cuts would largely happen by expanding work requirements to qualify for benefits and by cutting federal funding for food benefits and administration and leaving it up to states to make up the difference.

Federal cuts would leave states with tough choices

The largest cut to SNAP would come from federal funding cuts to basic SNAP benefits ranging from 5% to 25% starting in 2028, according to CBPP.

It would then be up to states to find ways to make up for that benefit shortfall, which could include making it more difficult to enroll in the program or finding other localized cuts to the program, according to CBPP.

“The change in the bill that is most dramatic is asking states to share part of the benefit cost,” Waxman said. “That’s new; since SNAP was originated, the federal government has always paid the full cost of the benefits.”

Notably, it would also mark the first time in the history of SNAP that the federal government would no longer ensure children in every state have access to food benefits, according to CBPP.

SNAP, formerly known as food stamps, currently provides food assistance to more than 40 million individuals including children, seniors and adults with disabilities.

Yet cuts to the program proposed by the House — which would shrink the program’s funding by about $300 billion through 2034 — would put those benefits at risk.

“The House Republican plan would take away food assistance for millions who struggle to afford the high cost of groceries, including families with children and other vulnerable people with low incomes,” Cox said during a Tuesday webinar hosted by the CBPP, a progressive think tank.

The SNAP reform efforts come amid a broader effort to reduce waste and fraud in government programs. SNAP, like other government benefits, can be susceptible to improper or fraudulent payments.

The “one big, beautiful bill restores integrity to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program,” House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., said in a May 14 statement, through “long-overdue accountability incentives to control costs and end executive and state overreach.”

Many Americans cite high food costs as a top economic concern, according to an April Pew Research Center survey. If new tariff policies are put into effect, that could prompt food prices to go higher.

Moreover, the proposed SNAP cuts come as some experts say the U.S. is facing higher recession risks. In previous downturns, every additional dollar spent on SNAP generates about $1.54 in returns to the economy, according to Elaine Waxman, senior fellow at the Urban Institute’s tax and income support division.

“People spend SNAP dollars right away, and they spend them locally,” Waxman said.

The proposed SNAP cuts would largely happen by expanding work requirements to qualify for benefits and by cutting federal funding for food benefits and administration and leaving it up to states to make up the difference.

The largest cut to SNAP would come from federal funding cuts to basic SNAP benefits ranging from 5% to 25% starting in 2028, according to CBPP.

It would then be up to states to find ways to make up for that benefit shortfall, which could include making it more difficult to enroll in the program or finding other localized cuts to the program, according to CBPP.

Notably, it would also mark the first time in the history of SNAP that the federal government would no longer ensure children in every state have access to food benefits, according to CBPP.

In addition, the proposal also seeks to make it so states pay a larger portion of the program’s administrative costs.

How states may react to the changes may vary. In worst-case scenarios, some states could even opt out of the program altogether, according to CBPP.

However, Waxman said most states will likely try to protect benefits because they’re “so critical,” even though they are not legally obligated to offer the program.

“The vast majority, if not all, will try to do something,” Waxman said.

In addition to the benefits SNAP provides to individuals and families, it also provides an “integral” part of economies, Waxman said. In lower-income rural areas, for example, rural grocery stores that rely on SNAP customers would see food spending go down.

“It has all these ripples that will hurt a lot of people other than just the people who are on the program,” Waxman said.

The proposed legislation would expand that those work requirements, according to the Urban Institute, by:
  • extending the requirements to households with children, unless they have a child under age seven;
  • expanding the work requirements and time limits to individuals ages 55 through 64;
  • limiting states’ flexibility to request waivers of the work requirement policies in high unemployment areas; and
  • reducing discretionary exemptions from the time limits that states may provide.
Expanded work requirements would affect 2.7 million families and 5.4 million individuals, according to a new report from the Urban Institute.

That includes 1.5 million families who would lose benefits entirely and 1.2 million families who would receive lower benefits. It also includes 1.8 million people, including 48,000 children, who would lose benefits entirely; and 3.6 million people, including 1.5 million children, who would receive lower benefits, according to the Urban Institute.

Families that lose some or all their benefits would lose $254 per month on average, according to the research. Meanwhile, families with children would lose $229 per month on average, the Urban Institute found.

In addition, the proposal also seeks to make it so states pay a larger portion of the program’s administrative costs.

How states may react to the changes may vary. In worst-case scenarios, some states could even opt out of the program altogether, according to CBPP.

However, Waxman said most states will likely try to protect benefits because they’re “so critical,” even though they are not legally obligated to offer the program.

“The vast majority, if not all, will try to do something,” Waxman said.

In addition to the benefits SNAP provides to individuals and families, it also provides an “integral” part of economies, Waxman said. In lower-income rural areas, for example, rural grocery stores that rely on SNAP customers would see food spending go down.

“It has all these ripples that will hurt a lot of people other than just the people who are on the program,” Waxman said.

Work requirements may cost families $254 per month

Expanded work requirements would affect 2.7 million families and 5.4 million individuals, according to a new report from the Urban Institute.

That includes 1.5 million families who would lose benefits entirely and 1.2 million families who would receive lower benefits. It also includes 1.8 million people, including 48,000 children, who would lose benefits entirely; and 3.6 million people, including 1.5 million children, who would receive lower benefits, according to the Urban Institute.

Families that lose some or all their benefits would lose $254 per month on average, according to the research. Meanwhile, families with children would lose $229 per month on average, the Urban Institute found.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, may be cut about 30% under the terms of the bill
shrink the program’s funding by about $300 billion
first time in the history of SNAP that the federal government would no longer ensure children in every state have access to food benefits, according to CBPP.
 

lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
The issue isn’t so much that they evade taxes but that they openly flaunt exploitation of tax loopholes as something smart people do. Plenty of celebrities and influencers evade taxes in China too, but it is very stigmatized.

As a student of history, anything that encourages a culture of systematic tax evasion rings alarm bells.
Countries develop by trying hard to reduce systematic corruption and improve the functioning of the state (aka tax collection).

Of course, America as a whole has decided to go backwards since it wasn't just MAGA pushing for this tax change....
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
As a student of history, anything that encourages a culture of systematic tax evasion rings alarm bells.
Countries develop by trying hard to reduce systematic corruption and improve the functioning of the state (aka tax collection).

Of course, America as a whole has decided to go backwards since it wasn't just MAGA pushing for this tax change....

Indeed. During one presidential debate in 2016 Trump brazenly claimed that Hillary won’t dare challenge him on tax evasion because she knows and practices every trick in the book as well. The whole structure is rotten.
 
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