Trump 2.0 official thread

[AssassinsMace]

Trump of course making his "deal" with China out to be more than what it is which is just a precondition to further talks. Funny how Trump is emphasizing "open markets". Again if the US doesn't need China, then the US doesn't need China's open market and should end all relations. The US doesn't need cheap stuff from China but China needs US agricultural products that it can anywhere else...?

The US market isn't open to China but the US is the other way around...? He's counting all those US companies that outsourced to China as being open to China when China doesn't profit from their sales. Plenty of non-retaliatory tariffs and barriers against China beforehand that Trump seems to complain about China's on the US. Just look at semiconductors and cars. The Chinese don't make a big deal about it and it's like the US in their minds think it's only China doing it. In the US that's called normalization. They forget that that's what they're hypocritically doing so when you do eventually do it right back at them, they think you're the provocateur and aggressor.

Why is the world surprised by Trump 2.0? It's because they didn't say anything and just went along. Western allies didn't like Trump back in his first term but they went along obeying his every command. Now he's targeting everyone including them and people are surprised? That's an example of "normalization". The Chinese are notorious for allowing normalization because again... say nothing, do nothing especially when wronged. Look at this situation. I'm sure China never wanted it to happen and said little and China got all the focus and the worst of it. It works against the logic of what Chinese think that saying nothing doing nothing is suppose to be what's best and the least cause of conflict? Most problems China faces with Western hypocrisy can be mitigated if they actually said something. Why allow them to think they're innocent all the time when they're not? All it does is make them more angry when you don't submit because they think they're victim.

Trump went all-in and lost. China called his bluff for the world to see. The US is not as powerful as Americans have believed. Is China going bury that tool deep somewhere in order to look "civilized"? Or are they from now on going to keep that weapon holstered on it's belt for everyone to see all the time to remind people of what will happen.

 

[TK3600]

I disagree that for a permanent deal both sides will be making concessions, with this temp agreement, it seems as if the US has the upper hand, but from all the info available so far, this agreement specifically relates to the tariffs alone.

It does not address the asymmetric response of the Chinese, for example, the rare earth restrictions are still in place, the boycott order for US agriculture is still in place and there are still other examples. Therefore despite the US seemingly retaining a higher tariff, it actually losses out much more, in the overall calculations.

Therefore when negotiating the permanent deal these become leverage, they are not really concessions either as they are a direct result of the trade war, so in order to get rid of these the US will have to give more in return, then to actually get something out of China that wasn’t already there to begin with, is when the concessions will have to be made.

The joint statement included China removing non-tariff countermeasures, which might includes rare earth ban.

 

[Mt1701d]

The joint statement included China removing non-tariff countermeasures, which might includes rare earth ban.

No it doesn’t, please refer to below

Posing the other tweet that tphuang was replying to in that chain.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1921864111094108329

Even with all non-tariff countermeasures suspended, the damage is done, new contracts has been signed.

With the uncertainty of whether the tariffs will continue in the long run, suspending the non-tariffs countermeasures in this ceasefire is pointless. The likelihood of long term contracts being signed is low to zero, so the longer term damage to the US economy is basically set in place.

If you look at this move further, I think this de-escalation may be a much better strategic move for China then it might seem.

My thinking is, the already developing relationship will continue regardless of what happens with the US, however with the return of trade with the US, the fear and accusations of dumping left over stock on to other economies disappears.

So in the short term it can stabilise the relationships because they will not be as concerned with de-industrialisation of their own economies. Allowing a more stable long term trade strategy with non-US markets.

 

[GodRektsNoobs]

I suspect that if the REM export controls are going to be removed, it would be de-emphasized and implemented under the table. Chinese domestic social media is in a furor over this announcement because it's seen as a capitulation by China, having the REM control removals additionally explicitly announced would cause an uproar.

In practice, 30% tariffs is extremely high (though the discourse around 145% tariffs have superficially cognitively primed people to view it as somehow insignificant when in material terms, the difference is not huge). Getting this agreement is a "success" for China on technical terms though it does entrench all these artificial Trump 2 tariffs as the new normal. 30% is catastrophically high, but not apocalyptically high - meaning that many US export oriented sectors in China will be able to scrape by rather than collapse (though the de minimis cancellation doesn't seem to be reversed at this moment).

The issue lies in perception. Getting slapped with 30% from the adversary and having your own side reduce retaliation to an unreciprocal 10% is bound to be spun by the Trump government as a PR win. We should be past the point in time where China still allows the US to make these kind of face-saving agreements and the bilateral relationship should have been developed to be in a position of tit-for-tat equality by now.

The Chinese side should be faulted for its messaging. Getting the entirety of society cognitively primed for a protracted economic war and total decoupling while suddenly presenting everyone with the fair accompli of an agreement is one thing (encountering this kind of whiplash is actually exasperatingly common in PRC history like the US normalization process in the 70s) but the negotiators at this talk were literally making public statements saying that "these are just preliminary talks and not to expect an agreement" during their intermission break.

Going from a stance of "never surrender" and "China emboldens the rest of the world through its example" to suddenly binding itself to - what seems on the surface as - an unreciprocal agreement like this along with the inevitable Western media and White House spin about how the 30% vs 10% differential means "China was desperate after all" is bound to be messy. For Trump and the US media, this will undoubtedly be spun (as the stock market reaction shows) as a win that will compel other countries to come to the table for tariff negotiations.

For China, pulling these kinds of moves damages domestic confidence that one's individual position aligns with that of the country's. There are still articles on Guancha by authors telling people to expect a "protracted war" and "no agreements" published immediately on their feed directly below this announcement's. Once again, Chinese domestic media is likely going to fall in a position of never taking any strong stances and perpetually hedging because no one can predict their country's position won't suddenly change.

More importantly, this agreement shows that China is not prepared for an economic showdown with the US or its hegemony at this time. This was a rare opportunity for decoupling on entirely Chinese terms where the US culpability means that China could not be blamed for any measures it took in response. It would have been undoubtedly painful but it would have forced Chinese economic production to undergo the cold turkey-style painful transition to internal circulation and Global South reorientation with the least amount of resentment towards the government through the US having unambiguously incited the entire confrontation and firing the first shot.

Whether based on top level assessments of the material conditions of China's economic dependency on the US or just lobbying pressures within the CPC, it shows that China is still constrained by its reliance on the existing economic order.

LOL, the fact that you can spin this entire thing as a loss to China is peak Germanic Winology.

 

[reservior dogs]

The joint statement included China removing non-tariff countermeasures, which might includes rare earth ban.

I think it’s accurate to say that the rare earth ban will be lifted, but China retains export control. Scott Bessent was commenting about how the Chinese are making progress on fentanyl, implying that the 20% fentanyl tax will be lifted soon. Large part of what the U S. sells to China are commodities that the Chinese can buy elsewhere. Even a 10% tax will hurt. The reverse is not true. The US will still buy Chinese goods with the 10% tariffs. There is no better alternative. So Trump, after all the back and forth, ended up leveling a 10% tariff on the world, something he could have done without so much damage to the US.

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

The joint statement included China removing non-tariff countermeasures, which might includes rare earth ban.

Based on how they justified the export controls, they may still keep them up under the banner of national security.

 

[iewgnem]

The joint statement included China removing non-tariff countermeasures, which might includes rare earth ban.

Only non-tariff measures on the US are paused, rare earth is global control for national security, US wasn't named. Also Chinese tariff prior to April 2 on US agriculture and energy in response to steel and aluminum tariffs are still in place.

 

[TK3600]

Only non-tariff measures on the US are paused, rare earth is global control for national security, US wasn't named. Also Chinese tariff prior to April 2 on US agriculture and energy in response to steel and aluminum tariffs are still in place.

So US consumers are eating good, but MAGA workers and farmers are still fucked.

 

[iewgnem]

I think it’s accurate to say that the rare earth ban will be lifted, but China retains export control. Scott Bessent was commenting about how the Chinese are making progress on fentanyl, implying that the 20% fentanyl tax will be lifted soon. Large part of what the U S. sells to China are commodities that the Chinese can buy elsewhere. Even a 10% tax will hurt. The reverse is not true. The US will still buy Chinese goods with the 10% tariffs. There is no better alternative. So Trump, after all the back and forth, ended up leveling a 10% tariff on the world, something he could have done without so much damage to the US.

There was never an explicit rare earth ban, just a blanket export control on all rare earth which require foreign buyers, including US buyers to apply for permit, applications that can be blanket rejected or blanket approved, how much of each is entirely up to Beijing's discretion and not part of any specific measure. The "ban" was purely an observed fact from all US applications being on pending.

 

[iewgnem]

So US consumers are eating good, but MAGA workers and farmers are still fucked.

Considering their media feed it'll probably be a few weeks before they realize tariff on them are still in place, or they'll just blame China for not buying, just like the 2018 "deal" where China never actually agreed to buy anything.