30% is a number both sides can work with to resume trade. Whereas 80% or 145% is impossible and made no difference.
For US items, 80%-145% makes no difference. China makes plenty of things where those numbers make or break the sale and plenty of things where even higher numbers don't stop the sale.
With 30%, Chinese suppliers will eat some of that, which puts additional pressure on margins that are already thin.
In your dreams. The CCP has put its foot down this time that the US must eat all of its tariffs. It's the national policy.
There is, however, 1 way that Chinese manufacturers help American importers, and that's by creating false invoices and underdeclaring value of shipments to drastically reduce tariffs. Although I'm not sure how much that matters because American ports themselves have been just letting shipments go without payment because of "computer issues."
US OEMs will eat some as well. Prices will go up, but not enough to affect consumer spending.
American consumers are gonna eat all of it and it will affect consumer spending, since it's not a yes/no question but a question of how much.
During Trump 1.0 Chinese suppliers ate some of the tariffs.
The biggest lesson Don the Con learned this time (or perhaps he didn't) is that this isn't Trade War I. China is a different beast in 4 years. Did you learn it?
Again 30% is something both the sides can work with. Chinese suppliers are not going to eat it all cause of razor thin margins, so Walmart and other U.S. OEMs will have to eat some too.
Americans are gonna eat all of it but when it comes to the argicultural goods sold to China, Americans will reduce prices for Chinese tariffs because those goods expire and no one else is big enough to buy them.
Whereas anything above 50% to 60% is a nonstarter. Very little difference between 50% or 80% or 200%.
You're projecting America's production inefficiencies to China. A 50-60% tariff on Chinese goods probably can't even produce a tangible effect for American manufacturers.
Many Chinese factories have not shut down.
LOL That's an understatement. Like basically all of them haven't shut down. Chinese trade has increased, not decreased since Trump's ill-thought out attacks.
They are on hold, waiting for a reduction in tariffs like the one announced today.
They're not on hold; nobody's waiting for you. We believed you'd hold out for much longer, years at least. They're producing for other countries. America doesn't consume that much with most of its expenses going into education and healthcare.
Smart businesses will find efficiencies, eat some of the tariffs and continue.
Smart businesses diversify. American businesses eat their own tariffs.
China exported $450 billion to U.S. market by December 2024. So clearly a lot of biz still comes from the U.S. Less reliance compared to before, but still substantial.
That biz keeps the US running. Clearly the US hasn't reduced reliance or it wouldn't have kicked up all that shit just to end up coming to Beijing for talks that put things back to where they started.
Won’t China run out of some rare earth minerals in 10-20 years?
That's... stupid. I have no idea why you post things without checking. I see other people corrected you later and now you know rare earths aren't rare; it's the refinement.