Trump 2.0 official thread

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member

Captainquirk

New Member
Registered Member
They have made a strategic decision to control a resource which is critical to their industry. This is the price they paid. From what I heard, a great deal of the technology that sprung up on the refining of the rare earths are about reducing the pollution.
That’s true. And for US a decision was made not to, and use others’ reserve instead.

Even now they want it to be done in Australia, Russia, Ukraine, etc…
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
Woke up to a bigger news than J-10 owning Rafale…

All jokes aside be fully prepared for Trump to renege on the deal as soon as he catches his breath.
He won't, just like TikTok. At this point threat of tariffs going back up is China's card, not American.

There are a couple of secondary effects that has big and funny implications:
1 - The 90 day pause on Vietnam tariffs expire before this 90 day, which means unless Trump extend that one again, which he has to, in 60 days Vietnam and India will both see see 2x China tariffs, lol
2 - Any US buyer who even entertained the idea of looking for non-Chinese or local suppliers are now back to a position of being unable to compete with Chinese imports and back to having to source from China, meanwhile Chinese sellers who already spent a month developing other markets are even less dependant on US. The one-way coupling is much stronger than before April.
3 - For the tiny number of people who were dumb enough to actually invest in US manufacturing, they just got rug pulled and likely will never be able to recover, nor re-attempt.
4 - Perhaps most importantly, we just established US has zero will nor ability to fight a hot war with China over Taiwan where they have to face an actual total embargo, for all practical purposes this trade war was America's Suez moment.

Lastly I think people are focusing too much on the US pausing tariff for 90 days when its both side that did so, which means Trump can't unilaterally extend it another 90 days, he'll have to get China to agree. From now on China will, and based on Xinhua's article yesterday, are already started to extract concession from the US, just so Trump can be allowed to not tariff China.
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
In terms of sanctions, the US semiconductor industry is equivalent to China's rare earth industry. Equivalent to China always having a button to sanction the United States in high-end military manufacturing.
Not equivalent at all, China's issue with semiconductors is China does not control ALL semiconductor industry, while US issue with RE is US has ZERO domestic supply. China is already one of the world's biggest semiconductor producers and the gaps are only in most leading nodes and leading lithography equipment, both China can fill. while US has no RE processing capability at all and they have no ability to fill that gap.

As a general rule of thumb, nobody is equivalent to China, in anything.
 

Hyper

Junior Member
Registered Member
He won't, just like TikTok. At this point threat of tariffs going back up is China's card, not American.

There are a couple of secondary effects that has big and funny implications:
1 - The 90 day pause on Vietnam tariffs expire before this 90 day, which means unless Trump extend that one again, which he has to, in 60 days Vietnam and India will both see see 2x China tariffs, lol
2 - Any US buyer who even entertained the idea of looking for non-Chinese or local suppliers are now back to a position of being unable to compete with Chinese imports and back to having to source from China, meanwhile Chinese sellers who already spent a month developing other markets are even less dependant on US. The one-way coupling is much stronger than before April.
3 - For the tiny number of people who were dumb enough to actually invest in US manufacturing, they just got rug pulled and likely will never be able to recover, nor re-attempt.
4 - Perhaps most importantly, we just established US has zero will nor ability to fight a hot war with China over Taiwan where they have to face an actual total embargo, for all practical purposes this trade war was America's Suez moment.

Lastly I think people are focusing too much on the US pausing tariff for 90 days when its both side that did so, which means Trump can't unilaterally extend it another 90 days, he'll have to get China to agree. From now on China will, and based on Xinhua's article yesterday, are already started to extract concession from the US, just so Trump can be allowed to not tariff China.
Trump has to pay a political price for trying to run the country as if he is stronger and has higher political power than a kings of yore.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
30% is a number both sides can work with to resume trade. Whereas 80% or 145% is impossible and made no difference.
For US items, 80%-145% makes no difference. China makes plenty of things where those numbers make or break the sale and plenty of things where even higher numbers don't stop the sale.
With 30%, Chinese suppliers will eat some of that, which puts additional pressure on margins that are already thin.
In your dreams. The CCP has put its foot down this time that the US must eat all of its tariffs. It's the national policy.

There is, however, 1 way that Chinese manufacturers help American importers, and that's by creating false invoices and underdeclaring value of shipments to drastically reduce tariffs. Although I'm not sure how much that matters because American ports themselves have been just letting shipments go without payment because of "computer issues."
US OEMs will eat some as well. Prices will go up, but not enough to affect consumer spending.
American consumers are gonna eat all of it and it will affect consumer spending, since it's not a yes/no question but a question of how much.
During Trump 1.0 Chinese suppliers ate some of the tariffs.
The biggest lesson Don the Con learned this time (or perhaps he didn't) is that this isn't Trade War I. China is a different beast in 4 years. Did you learn it?
Again 30% is something both the sides can work with. Chinese suppliers are not going to eat it all cause of razor thin margins, so Walmart and other U.S. OEMs will have to eat some too.
Americans are gonna eat all of it but when it comes to the argicultural goods sold to China, Americans will reduce prices for Chinese tariffs because those goods expire and no one else is big enough to buy them.
Whereas anything above 50% to 60% is a nonstarter. Very little difference between 50% or 80% or 200%.
You're projecting America's production inefficiencies to China. A 50-60% tariff on Chinese goods probably can't even produce a tangible effect for American manufacturers.
Many Chinese factories have not shut down.
LOL That's an understatement. Like basically all of them haven't shut down. Chinese trade has increased, not decreased since Trump's ill-thought out attacks.
They are on hold, waiting for a reduction in tariffs like the one announced today.
They're not on hold; nobody's waiting for you. We believed you'd hold out for much longer, years at least. They're producing for other countries. America doesn't consume that much with most of its expenses going into education and healthcare.
Smart businesses will find efficiencies, eat some of the tariffs and continue.
Smart businesses diversify. American businesses eat their own tariffs.
China exported $450 billion to U.S. market by December 2024. So clearly a lot of biz still comes from the U.S. Less reliance compared to before, but still substantial.
That biz keeps the US running. Clearly the US hasn't reduced reliance or it wouldn't have kicked up all that shit just to end up coming to Beijing for talks that put things back to where they started.
Won’t China run out of some rare earth minerals in 10-20 years?
That's... stupid. I have no idea why you post things without checking. I see other people corrected you later and now you know rare earths aren't rare; it's the refinement.
 
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Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
US gained nothing by escalating and then de-escalation like a roller coaster. Jobs won't return at 30% or 10%, the damage to US credibility and prestige is far more than the benefit of a 'framework mechanism to talk about talking' or whatever they are trying to spin as a victory.
 
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