Trump 2.0 official thread

[horse]

Everything is so over leveraged that once news of empty shelves actually hit, the whales will start panic selling. If Trump doesn’t set Navarro on fire and toss him off Trump Tower by then we know that merit based promotion is truly dead in DC.

I do not think that will happen.

Everyone expects a deal.

There should be a deal.

The lunacy was that bad. That economic lunacy could not be sustained.

Once they see Trump backing off, then things will be alright.

If there is a shortage, and if they are working on it, that is good enough. They are trying to solve the problem.

So, if rationality comes back, the shortages will be overcome, and the rich people get to continue whatever they were doing in America.

Now if the Chinese and Americans refuse to talk under any circumstances, then we probably will see the markets meltdown and probably a financial crisis will erupt that will brutalize the developing world or most of China's friends.

You know how it goes, some will point the finger at China for letting that happen.

 

[jiajia99]

Yup, this is the first time that China has confirmed what we knew all along, which is that Trump made up the "lots of calls" he received from China.

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Trump’s trade war olive branch met with derision and mistrust inside China​

"Chinese officials also denied the two sides are speaking. Trump told reporters on Wednesday there were direct talks between US and Chinese officials “everyday” on trade, though he didn’t offer specifics.

“These are all fake news,” Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, said on Thursday when asked about the talks. “To my knowledge, China and the United States have not engaged in any consultations or negotiations on the tariff issue, let alone reached any agreement.”"

One must wonder how angry China is right now given all the things the USA has done to China, Trumps stupid actions must’ve been the absolute last straw

 

[Surpluswarrior]

This is a reasonable and balanced look at what is happening in U.S. shipping. Definitely there has been disruption and "chaos" in the supply-chain, although the full impacts will rely somewhat on Trump's decisions in the next few days.

Are US Ports Empty and What Impact Does the Tariff Have on Global Shipping?​

A look at what ships and ports are doing.

Shipping CEO warns of ‘lose-lose situation’ even if China tariffs relaxed | The Hill​

Even if Trump ends the tariffs right now, there will be a 'bullwhip' effect in shipping, as many ships have been repositioned, and are not ready to immediately resume shipments to America.

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

Trump’s trade war olive branch met with derision and mistrust inside China​

By

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, CNN

6 minute read

Updated 4:15 AM EDT, Thu April 24, 2025

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My educated guess is that Xi's government has long decided to decouple from the US market, realising that continued reliance on the US market would hinder China's strategic objective ranging from resolving the Taiwan issue to achieving full political, technological, and economic autonomy. However, a sudden cutoff initiated by Beijing would not only lead to a sharp increase in domestic unemployment (thus, a political crisis), but also alienate the massive Chinese middle class who made their livings on foreign trade. The blame would then be on the CPC. Nonetheless, since Trump started the trade war 2.0 this time, previously risky tough stance toward the US is now politically viable as a result of the rally-around-the-flag effect in China. Thus, Xi can now take advantage of a mess started by Trump to drastically reduce economic dependence on the US in the long term, enhance China's autonomy in international political economy, as well as to make the Chinese economy more sanctions-proof should a crisis over Taiwan or other near-abroad regions occur.

 

[iewgnem]

My educated guess is that Xi's government has long decided to decouple from the US market, realising that continued reliance on the US market would hinder China's strategic objective ranging from resolving the Taiwan issue to achieving full political, technological, and economic autonomy. However, a sudden cutoff initiated by Beijing would not only lead to a sharp increase in domestic unemployment (thus, a political crisis), but also alienate the massive Chinese middle class who made their livings on foreign trade. The blame would then be on the CPC. Nonetheless, since Trump started the trade war 2.0 this timne, previously risky tough stance toward the US is now politically viable as a result of the rally-around-the-flag effect in China. Thus, Xi can now take advantage of a mess started by Trump to drastically reduce economic dependence on the US in the long term, enhance China's autonomy in international political economy, as well as to make the Chinese economy more sanctions-proof should a crisis over Taiwan or other near-abroad regions occur.

"Dual circulation" is as explicit a statement on decoupling as possible, MIC2025, diverting real estate toward manufacturing, the tech war, every single thing China has done over the last 10+ years has been to decouple with America. It's amazing how few people understand this.

There's nothing sudden to China about this trade war, the only thing that China was perhaps caught off guard by was how bad America is at fighting and Trump also declaring war on the world.

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

"Dual circulation" is as explicit a statement on decoupling as possible, MIC2025, diverting real estate toward manufacturing, the tech war, every single thing China has done over the last 10+ years has been to decouple with America. It's amazing how few people understand this.

There's nothing sudden to China about this trade war, the only thing that China was perhaps caught off guard by was how bad America is at fighting and Trump also declaring war on the world.

Or you can argue that China began "de-risking" from the West starting with the 2006 Indigenous Innovation policy, which really accelerated under MIC 2025. China's Decoupling really began under Trump 1.0 and accelerated under Biden, especially after the October 2022 chip ban and the Pelosi Taiwan visit (along with sanctions placed on Russia). That's was probably when Xi realised that it would be fruitless to even try to repair ties with the liberal West. This somewhat rhymes with the earlier Spring 2021 meeting, when the Chinese delegation admitted to the Biden NSC that 我們把你們想的太好了.

However, as domestic reactions to the 2022 covid lockdown in November that year has shown, there was still not yet a unified domestic stance behind the CPC's long-term goals. In fact, before Trump 2.0, you could still hear lots of Chinese liberals and those who make fortunes on international trade blaming Xi for the whole US-China trade war. Maybe 2022 was when Xi himself fully realised that 他以前一直把美國人"想的太好了" (maybe he long thought too fondly of the Americans).

What Trump appears to have done this time around with unilateral trade aggression is something Xi could only dream in his wet dreams; silencing China's pro-west liberals and create a united front against the West. Shutting down USAID and its clients in China further bolster political/narrative balance of power in favour of China. Maybe 川建國同志 is indeed a "very good friend" of Xi.

 

[SanWenYu]

"Dual circulation" is as explicit a statement on decoupling as possible, MIC2025, diverting real estate toward manufacturing, the tech war, every single thing China has done over the last 10+ years has been to decouple with America. It's amazing how few people understand this.

There's nothing sudden to China about this trade war, the only thing that China was perhaps caught off guard by was how bad America is at fighting and Trump also declaring war on the world.

BRI started in 2013.

 

[manqiangrexue]

One must wonder how angry China is right now given all the things the USA has done to China, Trumps stupid actions must’ve been the absolute last straw

Actually, I'm getting that the US is driven by anger and frustration at their failed efforts to bend China while China is driven by a calm and calculating mindset. The biggest reason Trump made this mistake is because he went in unprepared, thinking he'll do better than last time just by hitting harder and being meaner while China has been truly and silently preparing for this conflict since 2018.

 

[AndrewS]

Long Ezra Klein Podcast below.

The Very American Roots of Trumpism | The Ezra Klein Show
youtube.com/watch?v=82tk31IHnoY

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Key points:

1. Trump is a symptom, not the cause of America First and the conception of America as a white Christian country.

That manifested as slavery, black segregation, anti-immigration sentiment, illiberalism, the expulsion of Native Americans from their land into "reservations", etc etc

EDIT Another manifestation is that a majority of Republicans somehow still believe that Obama wasn't an American citizen.

2. Liberalism versus Nativism is a feature of the political landscape (and in people's heads), not a situation where one side can vanquish the other

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

Actually, I'm getting that the US is driven by anger and frustration at their failed efforts to bend China while China is driven by a calm and calculating mindset. The biggest reason Trump made this mistake is because he went in unprepared, thinking he'll do better than last time just by hitting harder and being meaner while China has been truly and silently preparing for this conflict since 2018.

Well, many US policymakers (probably Trump included) still believes that China has never recovered from the 2022 debacle (lockdown-induced economic downturn, protests, lack of confidence among private entrepreneurs, a rise in anti-CPC narratives, argument about peaked Chinese power, etc.). Well 2022 was tough for China, but apparently China has made significant breakthrough in many forefronts of technologies since then, although high rate of youth unemployment remains a serious problem, so does corruption and many other issues.