Trump 2.0 official thread

[Sinnavuuty]

For China, decoupling is a strategic shift driven by its 'dual circulation' model. It will continue to export but wants to build resilient, autonomous supply chains and ramp up domestic demand and innovation so it’s not overly reliant on the US and other consumer markets for its growth. It's about reducing vulnerability to external political pressures and shocks.

There's a camp of economists who believes China can never be a peer of the US because it can't transition to a consumption based model, without fully understanding what that consumption model entails. China is not going to be a golden credit card spender (term coined by investor Howard Marks about a kind of spending habit where one assumes they have no credit limit and the bill never comes), it's not in the culture of the Chinese.

Essentially, China is trying to transform from a pure factory to a tech powerhouse, which ensures its industrial base isn't at the mercy of geopolitical volatility. This industrial base will eventually be largely consumed by the Chinese people as much as the rest of the world.

I am particularly critical of such measures taken now by China, because this direction in economic policy should have been taken into consideration and implemented a decade ago, and the inherent problems that are recurring today could have been avoided.

Chinese industrial production should have been redirected to benefit Chinese well-being, not to China's export sector that maintains the high standard of living of the entire world, especially the Western world, in exchange for dollars.

 

[phrozenflame]

Trump wants other countries to lower their tariffs and buy more U.S. products. That’s pretty much what’s going to happen with majority of the countries coming to negotiate. Win. US lost nothing.

Trump wants to make “bespoke” deals with each country. Let’s just wait and see.

buy what tho? Here in lies the problem. X would buy a Chinese or Japanese car, not because 'fk americaaa', no, its simply because Japanese or Chinese cars offer alot more at the price point X is willing to spend vs say an American car.

The fundamental problem is American corps made 100s of billions of dollars in profits from China and rest of the world there main street blames for deficits, and those profits were funnelled to wall street, the 1% and the MIC. Those profits are still happening, but instead of goods, they've transitioned to services. The main street didnt see the 'trickle down' effect. The peasants are demanding wtf happened and the peasants are being told by the 1% and the MIC that the world stole their lunch, and chief amongst them is China. Those who stand up for the peasants are pushed aside (Bernie) by the 1%.

It's a matter of time before the services $$$ also start drying up.

There is zero effective export promotion industrial policies in US. Nothing to back up the huff and puff of tarriffs. Americans, I have no doubt are savvy enough to do something about it, but right now they're in stage of not even recognising what the problem is. Instead of export promotion industrial policies, we have basically them busy trying to build a neo wealth extraction tithe system.

 

[Africablack]

buy what tho? Here in lies the problem. X would buy a Chinese or Japanese car, not because 'fk americaaa', no, its simply because Japanese or Chinese cars offer alot more at the price point X is willing to spend vs say an American car.

The fundamental problem is American corps made 100s of billions of dollars in profits from China and rest of the world there main street blames for deficits, and those profits were funnelled to wall street, the 1% and the MIC. Those profits are still happening, but instead of goods, they've transitioned to services. The main street didnt see the 'trickle down' effect. The peasants are demanding wtf happened and the peasants are being told by the 1% and the MIC that the world stole their lunch, and chief amongst them is China. Those who stand up for the peasants are pushed aside (Bernie) by the 1%.

It's a matter of time before the services $$$ also start drying up.

There is zero effective export promotion industrial policies in US. Nothing to back up the huff and puff of tarriffs. Americans, I have no doubt are savvy enough to do something about it, but right now they're in stage of not even recognising what the problem is. Instead of export promotion industrial policies, we have basically them busy trying to build a neo wealth extraction tithe system.

It's the danger of consuming the consumption drug, once you've experienced it you never want to get off it. Nigeria had something similar happen to it during the oil boom of the 1970s, it decided it would just use a strengthening Naira (local currency) and consume like no tomorrow, nobody cared about decreasing productivity and industrialization. When oil prices dipped by the 1980s the drug wore off you still have folks reminiscing about the glorious 1970s when imports were cheap. America is going through the same thing and I'm not sure they will want to sacrifice their current standard of living in order to re-industrialize to the level Trump is dreaming about

 

[Captainquirk]

buy what tho? Here in lies the problem. X would buy a Chinese or Japanese car, not because 'fk americaaa', no, its simply because Japanese or Chinese cars offer alot more at the price point X is willing to spend vs say an American car.

The fundamental problem is American corps made 100s of billions of dollars in profits from China and rest of the world there main street blames for deficits, and those profits were funnelled to wall street, the 1% and the MIC. Those profits are still happening, but instead of goods, they've transitioned to services. The main street didnt see the 'trickle down' effect. The peasants are demanding wtf happened and the peasants are being told by the 1% and the MIC that the world stole their lunch, and chief amongst them is China. Those who stand up for the peasants are pushed aside (Bernie) by the 1%.

It's a matter of time before the services $$$ also start drying up.

There is zero effective export promotion industrial policies in US. Nothing to back up the huff and puff of tarriffs. Americans, I have no doubt are savvy enough to do something about it, but right now they're in stage of not even recognising what the problem is. Instead of export promotion industrial policies, we have basically them busy trying to build a neo wealth extraction tithe system.

Pharmaceuticals
Agriculture
Oil, gas, petroleum based products
Wide range of chemicals
Weapons

But you do make a good point about wealth transfer over the last 40 years.

Now why would service economy also dry up?

 

[Mt1701d]

Pharmaceuticals
Agriculture
Oil, gas, petroleum based products
Wide range of chemicals
Weapons

But you do make a good point about wealth transfer over the last 40 years.

Now why would service economy also dry up?

You know there is a bit of disconnect with all 5 of your suggestions, pharmaceutical, agriculture and energy base products all have a saturation point, for some nations with smaller populations there is only so much that can be absorbed before it becomes waste, also that would basically destroy any industry at the destination especially agriculture. There is an additional point for agriculture, ones they buy as much as possible and resulted in destroying their own industry, what happens when there is a shortage in the US and food can’t be exported anymore? Or a pandemic happen and it can’t be transported, are the people there suppose to die for the US wanting bully everyone after basically bullying everyone after 40 years?

Chemicals are also dependent, are they components or complete products, for complete products you maybe able to store for awhile but over buy every year and stockpiling for no reason, makes no sense. As for components, if the destination doesn’t have a chemical industry then what do you expect them to do with it?

Weapons, that’s even more silly, the ones that can afford it are already buying and the other either can’t afford them or there is no way in hell approval would be given for the sell.

So what the hell are those countries supposed to do? Just keep buying something in amount they can’t possibly use?

This is the point where this demand makes no sense. The countries with the largest deficit are usually poor… too poor to afford or simply have no industry for most of what you are suggesting.

 

[JJD1803]

I'm not really sure if I should be worried for the American people or be angry that we're all going to lose a lot because of these imbeciles...

Countries whose people have become this divorced from reality usually end up starting bloody wars, economic depressions, or genocides.

View attachment 149766

The amount of vitriol from MAGA against China the last few days on social media shows there is a real hatred for China. Americans on both the left and right have been brainwashed to hate China because they aren’t white and are communist. I live here and it’s wild. It wouldn’t take much to convince this blood thirsty populace to support a war with China. Their tune will change fast when they suffer casualties they haven’t experienced since the Korean War.

 

[zscstephen]

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

I am particularly critical of such measures taken now by China, because this direction in economic policy should have been taken into consideration and implemented a decade ago, and the inherent problems that are recurring today could have been avoided.

Chinese industrial production should have been redirected to benefit Chinese well-being, not to China's export sector that maintains the high standard of living of the entire world, especially the Western world, in exchange for dollars.

It's not as though Xi hasn't been trying to reorient the focus and attention of numerous businesses for almost a decade now, but with little success. It takes a crisis for these individuals—driven by self-serving interests and the fantasy of harmony with the West—to begin adjusting their businesses, because their livelihoods depend on adapting to this new tariff reality.

I mean, there were still Chinese companies hoping to set up shop and launch an IPO on the U.S. stock exchange as recently as last year, for Pete's sake!The government can't really force these individuals and industries to act without providing the proper incentives or taking provocative action that would hasten their decision-making to align with the national security interests of the state. This is because, more often than not, the goals and objectives of the state and those of business interests do not align.

 

[iewgnem]

The amount of vitriol from MAGA against China the last few days on social media shows there is a real hatred for China. Americans on both the left and right have been brainwashed to hate China because they aren’t white and are communist. I live here and it’s wild. It wouldn’t take much to convince this blood thirsty populace to support a war with China. Their tune will change fast when they suffer casualties they haven’t experienced since the Korean War.

Barbarian tribes always hated China, has been the case for >2,000 years, there's something about civilization and their inability to neither comprehend nor steal from biologically infuriates them.

Anglo Americans aren't the first such tribe, but they might be the last.

 

[zscstephen]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1910346859077337506