Trump 2.0 official thread

[vincent]

China expecting the vassals to not cave was always delusional. Trump is smart in that sense - he knows most of the world will bend the knee because they're afraid of change.

I'll go one step further - the EU will cease all trade with China before they cease all trade with the US. They are that compromised as a society (or you can think of it as a full-on white supremacy band wagon), and any Chinese illusions about the EU will be shattered, push comes to shove.

The real question to me is whether China is now willing to do the right thing, which is to increase internal consumption & fix its demographics, because in the short term, I predict there will be some hard times coming as most of the world will bend the knee to the US and try to thread the needle on China (e.g. many of them may very well cut trade with China to appease the US).

I've always been of the opinion that, at the end of the day, China must be prepared to go at it alone. Work with partners where you can, but in a zero sum world, you can't rely on anyone, especially not countries historically tied to the West.

There's only two real paths to long-term historical success: 1) demographics victory and 2) cultural / ideological victory. The US's behavior is opening up the opportunity for (2) since it is increasingly seen as a bully, but China should still invest in (1) just in case.

Where will the rest of the world get the electricity to produce all the things China produces for them? Do the Taiwanese thing 用爱发电?

 

[Eventine]

The rest of the world is hoping after China strikes back, Trump will rethink his tariffs on them. Why are Trump and the Republicans so angry at China for retaliating when it serves their goal of decoupling with China? That tells you that wasn't expected. As usual they think everyone needs the US more than the US needs of them. Like the clues say it's a negotiating ploy. Trump wants more than just removal of tariffs on US products. Like with Vietnam... zero per cent tariffs on US products is not enough. Yes like it's been said, the ultimate goal is redrawing global trade. Like I've been saying, this is where you'll see which countries will jump onto a sinking ship and with those countries, China shouldn't think of kumbaya in helping them until they're desperate begging China to giving them a lifeline. Not only do they need China to buy from them, they need less expensive goods which they won't be getting from any manufacturing done in the US. And by their logic says, the whole point of US tariffs is bringing back manufacturing to the US. It goes against the stream if the US makes it easier to export to the US by backtracking on tariffs. You think Trump is a genius with a plan? He's so chaotic contradicting himself because he didn't think about it thoroughly. And you can see it with the Republicans defending him. All they do is repeat the talking points given supporting Trump. Yeah they want tariffs on China but not as much with traditional allies but they have to blindly support their leader or they get fired.

Trump's inner circle is convinced that China will fold before they do. Or at least they're willing to make that gamble while the rest of the world still treats the US as their king. They're perfectly willing to start a new Cold War to contain China, so this isn't a trick; it's the end goal.

Where will the rest of the world get the electricity to produce all the things China produces for them? Do the Taiwanese thing 用爱发电?

The amount of suffering that will be produced is not something the Trump administration thinks about. Especially not if it can be out sourced to its vassals.

They'll expect those vassals to purchase (expensive) US energy to make (even more expensive) products for the US but sell them at a loss and subsidize it with tax money.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Where will the rest of the world get the electricity to produce all the things China produces for them? Do the Taiwanese thing 用爱发电?

View attachment 149571

Mass importation of Japanese AV actresses as an strategic asset.

 

[AndrewS]

I don't know how long this economic war against the ROW will last. I think the ROW's strategy will be to give Trump something he can call a victory, like lowered tariffs (e.g. what Vietnam and Taiwan have offered, and perhaps the EU too) without submitting to a full Plaza Accord style agreement, and see if domestic pressure is enough to convince him to back down. I think that's a possibility. In my assessment there simply isn't that much America's existing allies can give at this point, and the real target will have to be China.

Couple of points

1. The ROW doesn't have a strategy because everyone is divided

2. Much of the damage has already been done, irrespective of how long America's economic war continues against the ROW.

 

[sunnymaxi]

China expecting the vassals to not cave was always delusional. Trump is smart in that sense - he knows most of the world will bend the knee because they're afraid of change.

I'll go one step further - the EU will cease all trade with China before they cease all trade with the US. They are that compromised as a society (or you can think of it as a full-on white supremacy band wagon), and any Chinese illusions about the EU will be shattered, push comes to shove.

The real question to me is whether China is now willing to do the right thing, which is to increase internal consumption & fix its demographics, because in the short term, I predict there will be some hard times coming as most of the world will bend the knee to the US and try to thread the needle on China (e.g. many of them may very well cut trade with China to appease the US).

I've always been of the opinion that, at the end of the day, China must be prepared to go at it alone. Work with partners where you can, but in a zero sum world, you can't rely on anyone, especially not countries historically tied to the West.

There's only two real paths to long-term historical success: 1) demographics victory and 2) cultural / ideological victory. The US's behavior is opening up the opportunity for (2) since it is increasingly seen as a bully, but China should still invest in (1) just in case.

not that easy.

its very complicated especially after Russian-Ukraine war. German car industry is already struggling. 25 percent tariffs on automobile and 20 percent additional tariffs on EU could annihilate German car industry. same with Japan and Korea.

EU offering zero percent tariffs.. trump wouldn't agree as EU enjoy huge trade surplus with USA

 

[daifo]

Trump is at his worst under pressure or when he doesn't have a outright advantage. We saw him torch the country during covid, blm, and re-election. Luring Trump to make mistakes even at one's own expense might be the way with a opponent that feed on by ego over country.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

Couple of points

1. The ROW doesn't have a strategy because everyone is divided

2. Much of the damage has already been done, irrespective of how long America's economic war continues against the ROW.

It is very difficult to have a united trade front against the US because of this division, there are already some countries wanting agreements individually, but the main case here is that the key to all of this will end up being China.

 

[Moonscape]

I've always been of the opinion that, at the end of the day, China must be prepared to go at it alone. Work with partners where you can, but in a zero sum world, you can't rely on anyone, especially not countries historically tied to the West.

This has always been the view of the Chinese leadership as well, that sooner or later, China will have to take on the United States and all of its vassals by itself.

There's a great post on the Chinese Quora-equivalent about this very topic that's been linked before, but I can't find it at the moment.

 

[AndrewS]

I heard somewhere that Trump's tactics are based on his experiences in the mafia-infested New York real estate business in the 1970s and 1980s. I think there's something in that, The Don behaves a lot like a don.

The best way for other countries to retaliate would be against US service exports. In particular, EU should implement some sort of digital services tax. Trump seems blissfully unaware of the existence of service exports and international capital flows.

The EU already has a digital services tax on large internet companies, which Trump thinks is unfair.

I think more effective actions would be:

1. a consumer boycott of US media (Film, music, TV, newspapers, Disney, etc)

2. professional services boycott (finance, law, accounting, etc )

3. US cloud/platform operators (Moving from Amazon to Alibaba or EU systems, ChatGPT to Mistral AI)

---

This has clear strategic and economic benefits to the EU.

 

[Ringsword]

Chinese MAGAs are gonna claim that China is f-ed for not bending the knee.

No,we are fucked if we bend the knee-Japan's brutal,murderous,war,Rape of Nanjing(s)-Three-All-Campaigns,Unit731/100 etc was meant to"bend-our-knee"-if we had ala Wang ChingWei would we be better off?would graciousness,mercy and plenty be our portion?/-Trump the greedy,rapacious,orange buffoon won't give us any either just his stupid shit-eating-grin/rictus like smile that he had won over the chinks.His legacy indeed.And we overseas wumaos will also suffer albeit second hand because China bent the knee.Just look at the treatment of Chinese in China/overseas after the Opium wars/Unequal Treaties "bent our knee"-A century of Humiliation-look up the slur "Chinaman's Chance,"Chinese Firedrill","Chinese woman's "V" goes the other way" a legacy I don't ever want for our children.