Trade War with China

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s002wjh

Junior Member
So you are suggesting China to pay for the blackmailing? I do agree that ZTE is important, but allowing a blackmail will open up the door for further and endless blackmailing, then the cost will be higher than ZTE.

Corrections: Samsung's business is mostly not overlapping with ZTE, Samsung is not much in infrastructure business, ZTE's phone is in the low-middle category not much concern to Samsung. Don't blame Huawei for not selling chip (Kirin) to ZTE, ZTE has TSMC because ZTE produce variants of the same model using either Qualcomm or TSMC chips. Other than the phone chips, Huawei does not have much to offer ZTE even it want to, many of those elements used by Huawei are not produced by Huawei, but other companies.
It will be china decision to take the deal or not. Would u call force companies to hand over IP via join venture a blackmail?

It's negotiations and I don't know why u get so offensive with idea that china could trade ZTE for lower tariffs on soybeans . China is gonna do deal base on its interest. If they take the deal that's just mean the pro outweigh the con

As for Sam chip i guess we just have to wait and see . Further more chip is not the only US parts that ZTE need from US. So for immediate relief is good to have US selling parts to ZTE till china can come up with own design
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Trade is win win for both side and not the cause of disappearing job in midwest. Automation and increase efficiency is the culprit. Anyway those job that left is not going to come back. What you have here is irrational fear as Dr Kishore Mahbubani rightly pointed out
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America’s irrational collision course with China
By
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May 16, 2018 3:50 PM (UTC+8)

The world’s most important bilateral relationship – between the United States and China – is also one of its most inscrutable. Bedeviled by paradoxes, misperceptions and mistrust, it is a relationship that has become a source of considerable uncertainty and, potentially, severe instability. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the brewing bilateral trade war.

The key assertion driving the current dispute, initiated by US President Donald Trump’s administration, is that America’s trade deficit is too big – and it’s all China’s fault. US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has gone so far as to demand that China unilaterally cut its trade surplus vis-à-vis the United States by US$200 billion by 2020.

But most sensible economists agree that America’s trade deficits are the result of domestic structural economic factors, especially low household savings, persistent government deficits, and the US dollar’s role as the world’s main reserve currency. According to Joseph Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics, if the US wants to reduce its trade deficit, it
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by reducing its massive fiscal deficit.


Yet it is not even clear that America’s trade deficit urgently needs to be cut. While the external deficit is certainly large, the US can live beyond its means in a way other economies cannot. Thanks to the dollar’s reserve-currency status, the US can absorb most of the rest of the world’s savings, which finance its own savings shortfall. Moreover, as Trump’s own Council of Economic Advisers
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in February, the US enjoys a services surplus with the world, including with China.

But it is not just the Trump administration that shuns rational economic argument. Trump’s approach to trade with China
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more mainstream support in the US than most of his policies, because most Americans – including many who otherwise oppose Trump – are
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that China is not playing fair. Political commentator Fareed Zakaria, for example, has
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that “on one big, fundamental point” Trump is right: “China is a trade cheat.”

What all this China-bashing leaves out is that cheap Chinese imports have drastically improved the quality of life of American workers, whose median income has stagnated for 40 years

What all this China-bashing leaves out is that cheap Chinese imports have drastically improved the quality of life of American workers, whose median income has stagnated for 40 years. According to the consultancy Oxford Economics, buying Chinese imports
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American families around $850 annually. Given that 63% of American households
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even $500 saved for emergencies, this is not an insignificant amount.

Of course, open trade with the US and the rest of the world has enabled China to achieve the fastest poverty reduction in human history. But that does not mean that China is reaping most of the economic benefits. For example, the Chinese manufacturer Foxconn earns just $7.40 for every $800 iPhone that is sold; most of the value goes to Americans.

Chinese policymakers now put their faith in what was arguably the West’s most important export: modern economic theory. Yet they remain subject to damaging decisions made by a US plagued by misperception. The question is whether China will bow to US pressure.

China’s leadership is, ultimately, pragmatic. If a few symbolic concessions (like the voluntary export restraints to which Japan agreed in the 1980s) could prevent a collision, China may make them. But when it comes to bigger – and economically unjustified – demands, China is likely to hold the line.

Here, the most obvious example is Mnuchin’s demand that China abandon its “Made in China 2025” plan. China has already been subjected to American export controls on high-tech equipment (including the recently imposed seven-year ban on the sale of software or components by US companies to ZTE Corporation). It is not about to give up its quest for high-tech development, a critical element of a clear long-term strategy for moving its economy up the global value chain.

In short, however rational China tries to be, a trade war remains a real possibility – one that will hurt both Americans and Chinese. And this outcome is made all the more likely by a deepening disquiet in the bilateral relationship.

A three-month sabbatical at two leading US universities has underscored for me the extent to which attitudes toward China have soured in recent years. If Chinese policymakers were aware of the intensity of this shift – and I have informed a senior figure among them – they would realize that their calm and rational policies toward the US during the past 20 years may well not work in the next 20.

It would take an entire book to explain why America’s opinion of China has turned so negative. But some reasons are obvious. Within the next decade, China will overtake the US economically, despite not being a democracy. Several thoughtful Americans have told me that they could live with a larger China, if it was democratic.

Here, again, there is some irrationality at play: A democratic China would be far more susceptible to populist and nationalist pressures, and thus would probably be a pricklier partner for the US. Yet the US remains blinded by ideology, and thus is unable to see the benefits of a China guided by economic rationality.

In the future, historians will lament that America’s long-term policy toward China was not similarly a result of calm calculation. Instead, they are likely to focus on how America’s political polarization and simplistic ideology – shared by many who should know better – drove it into a highly damaging and utterly pointless conflict.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2018.
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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
It will be china decision to take the deal or not. Would u call force companies to hand over IP via join venture a blackmail?
Except the "deal" is what medias in Washington said. This is the 3rd time such "deal" has been announced or revealed by Washington's media. We never see the first two times come out of anything. From that observation, it is apparent to me this kind of "revelation" is more of propaganda tricks. It serves the purpose to make things look good to someone.

I quote an Global time's Editorial words "Howe could such a deal being floating around already before Liu He going to Washington? Did any Chinese officials even see such things?"

As of "force hand over IP blah, blah", nobody forced you to enter that join venture in the first place. It is your choice to not to hand over anything, but you choose to. So no, there is no blackmailing in that regard.

It's negotiations and I don't know why u get so offensive with idea that china could trade ZTE for lower tariffs on soybeans . China is gonna do deal base on its interest. If they take the deal that's just mean the pro outweigh the con
As I have said above, I see the "revelation of deal" being just a propaganda trick rather than something worth of notion. Call that offensive if you wish.

Once again, I am not against making a deal, but I put near zero attention to media tricks, just like how I treat Trump's big mouth.

As for Sam chip i guess we just have to wait and see . Further more chip is not the only US parts that ZTE need from US. So for immediate relief is good to have US selling parts to ZTE till china can come up with own design
Generally agreed.
Just give you another possibility to play the whole game (not limited to ZTE alone), "to see who blink first". While ZTE could be seriously hurt, so would all its current American suppliers. Other Telecom vendors have already had their order planned, these extra supplies vacated by ZTE will have nobody to take. There is also the Qualcomm merger deal under the knife.

How it is played, make a compromise already now when Trump swinging "saving" ZTE? Or further bleeding each other to set a principle to Trump? We will have to wait to see.

The one difference that I realized between you and me is that, I would not eagerly pick up the first carrot Trump through forward, I'd rather bleed him heavily first then make a deal, even that means me bleeding a lot too. The purpose is to make him know who he is dealing with. Remember Korean war? Heavier casualties (than US) was to make the US not to do it again. Today's Chinese are still enjoying its effect.
 
now I read
Chinese vice premier arrives in Washington for economic, trade consultations
Xinhua| 2018-05-16 12:37:09
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Chinese President Xi Jinping's special envoy and Vice Premier Liu He arrived in Washington on Tuesday afternoon for economic and trade consultations with the U.S. side at the invitation of the U.S. government.

Liu, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chief of the Chinese side of the China-U.S. comprehensive economic dialogue, leads a delegation whose members come from major economic sectors of the Chinese government.

The delegation members include Governor of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang, Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission Ning Jizhe, Deputy Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs Liao Min, Vice Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang, Vice Minister of Industry and Information Technology Luo Wen, Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao, Vice Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Han Jun, as well as Vice Minister of Commerce and Deputy International Trade Representative Wang Shouwen.

Before the delegation's arrival, a Chinese working group arrived in the United States last week and engaged in intense consultations with the U.S. side.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
I hope this news is true fewer hot head will calm thing down
From Asia Times
Death by China’ Navarro said to be kicked out of trade talks
China-bashing trade hawk ‘has lately behaved erratically and unprofessionally,’ officials say
By Asia Times staff May 17, 2018 4:06 AM (UTC+8)


Trump administration trade advisor Peter Navarro will reportedly not be taking part in discussions with top Chinese economic advisor Liu He on Thursday, in another sign that momentum is building for the US and China to strike a deal and avert a costly tariff battle.

Jennifer Jacobs
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, citing two administration offiials:

“Navarro, 68, who once published a book titled ‘Death by China’ and has long been hostile to the country, has lately behaved erratically and unprofessionally, the officials said. His exclusion from the meeting marks another downturn in his White House career, where he was long isolated by other senior officials before the president promoted him earlier this year to his top rank of aides”

The news comes after US President Donald Trump asked his twitter followers to “stay tuned” for news on the trade talks, following a suggestion via tweet that he would try to ease penalties slapped on Chinese telecoms firm ZTE. Backing off the ban on sales of components to ZTE was reportedly a prerequisite stipulated by the Chinese for trade talks to even begin.

Navarro’s sidelining also follows accounts that fellow trade hawk Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is seen as losing sway.
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that Ross had also been largely sidelined in the trade negotiations, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.

“Ross — whom Trump once affectionately called a ‘killer,’ a high compliment in the president’s lexicon — has steadily become a bit player, with the president regularly leaning on Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and White House trade adviser Peter Navarro.”

It sounds like, at least for these trade talks, you can take Navarro off that list of people on whom the president is leaning.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Regarding the so called "ZTE deal" reported by media like Washington Post etc., please see what Trump just said 10 hours ago. I know Trump is not very trustworthy himself, but now it is Trump's word vs. Media's words. (who is hardly any more trustworthy either) :rolleyes:
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upload_2018-5-17_1-21-8.png
 

FactsPlease

Junior Member
Registered Member
now I read
Chinese vice premier arrives in Washington for economic, trade consultations
Xinhua| 2018-05-16 12:37:09
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Allow me to mark down some points here -
0) Trump administration is amateur and reckless.
- By product of Trump's work: it proves to the world that i) hollowness of "exception" and moral high ground some people believe US is gifted, and ii) it's still the strong one set the rules in world, and change them when it disliked (or NOT winning). It's either my way or high way!
1) As much angry on 0), I believe in this ZTE case, some China authority, or any entity you wan to call them, had NOT done their jobs - they have 1+ year since Trump took over the Whitehouse, and 5+ months since Trump started threatening trade war. And what? ZTE still got caught unprepared - simply sitting there to die? I truly hope all the competitors in my career is like them.
2) Given 1, I still wish China can make best of this lesson - take one of my favorite proverbs: "A crisis is too precious to waste."
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
ZTE's main business is telecommunication network and infrastructure, not mobile phones. So this ban will have short term effect on its mobile phone business as its high end phones are based on Qualcomm CPU. Though they can turn to other vendors with relative ease but main problem is Android OS and Google apps thorough Play Store which will be near impossible to find alternatives.

China's main problem is not chips or hardware which is its advantage arena, has caught up the race in very short time and can excel with relative ease in future. But its main short comings are in software like operating systems and other enterprise applications. It takes huge amount of men, money and time with super management skills and brain power to create software power houses like Microsoft, Google, Apple, Oracle etc. These companies are the main advantage of USA which any other country can not beat in near future even Europe lags far behind and China is a small kid in this race. Just think about it Google is banned in China for many years now yet Android OS is in near 100% of its mobile phones and if Google stops Play Store access Chinese mobile phone business will cease to exist immediately.

huuhh, not sure whether you know what you are talking about :mad:

Google play store in China ? .. really .. have you done some a bit of research ?

Have you ever heard of Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, etc ..... the first 2 are in the top 10 biggest market caps in the world .. and software technology companies
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
The anxiety over Chinese techno prowess is the root cause of this trade war ARM take center place in this dispute. As it stands, about 90% of the world’s mobile devices use the ARM chip “blueprint.” With the recent incorporation of Mini ARM China try to secure its technology "DNA"
Of course this author put different spin on the technical acquisition "why it is illegal to acquire technology"

The technological ARMs war over ‘Made in China 2025’
A move to link up with one of the world’s most influential chip companies illustrates the scope of Beijing’s ambitions and Washington’s concerns
By
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MAY 17, 2018 6:29 PM (UTC+8)
From Asia Times
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Microchips--960x576.jpg

A circuit board for smart devices. Photo: iStock
Advanced RISC Machines hardly rolls off the tongue. Known as ARM Holdings to the business fraternity, it is not exactly a household name in Scunthorpe, Seattle or Shanghai.

Yet this high-tech research and development company could end up being crucial to President Xi Jinping’s ambitious “Made in China 2025” project, which aims to turn the world’s second-largest economy into a technological powerhouse.

“ARM Holdings doesn’t build processors per se,”
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consultant at Dimension Data, told ZDNet, a business technology news website published by CBS Interactive and TechRepublic.

“It creates reference designs or ‘architectures’ which are essentially the basic blueprints, or the ‘DNA,’ of how semiconductors work,” he added. “[The firm] then licenses those basic designs to other companies, which in turn use them in their own chips.”

From humble beginnings amid the dreamy spires of the university city of Cambridge in England, ARM has become a ‘hothouse’ of innovation since the 1990s and is part of what the United Kingdom calls ‘Silicon Fen,’ a typically British play on Silicon Valley.

Now part of
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sprawling SoftBank Group after a
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in 2016, the semiconductor designer’s core customers are Apple, Samsung and Qualcomm, who are licensed to incorporate their chip designs.

Its influence is immense.

High-tech hub
In April, ARM set up a joint venture in Shenzhen’s high-tech hub. Since then, plans have emerged that the company is planning to cede control to a Chinese consortium, including Hopu-Arm Innovation Fund, which is also known as Hou An Innovation Fund, according to China’s Ministry of Science and Technology.

Other key investors are believed to be Baidu, which is China’s answer to Google, Bank of China Group Investment and venture capital firm Sequoia, the
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two weeks ago.


If the deal goes through, the new entity will be known as Arm Mini China. Obviously, sharing future technology by boosting funding for further research and development in the microchip field will become a priority. Money will be no object.

“It’s hard to predict how long it will take for China to catch up with others, or successfully develop its own core technologies, but for traditional chip sectors, the time will be longer,”
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of the inappropriately named China Solid State Lighting Alliance, a technology research and investment firm in Beijing, said.

As it stands, about 90% of the world’s mobile devices use the ARM chip “blueprint.”

The group’s Chinese clients include Huawei’s semiconductor division, Hisilicon Technologies, Xiaomi and Fuzhou Rockchip Electronics under a “royalties” scheme.

But it is the R&D work, conducted by roughly 250 employees in Shenzhen, which is the perfect fit for the “Made in China” program.

In its scale, the project is breathtaking.

Rolled out in 2015, four years after Germany’s Industrie 4.0 initiative was launched at the Hanover Fair, the policy encompasses
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, from chips, computers and the cloud to smart cars to smart cookers.

Renewables, railways and robotics are other vital areas earmarked, along with the Internet of Things, and interconnected smart technology linked through artificial intelligence, or AI, for the pharmaceutical industry.

Yet the sheer depth of the scheme has triggered a technological arms race, with US President Donald Trump insisting that China’s state subsidies for high-tech industries must be curtailed as trade talks resume in Washington this week.

“The current trade war between the United States and China is not about trade,”
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at the Carnegie Endowment and author of Cracking the China Conundrum: Why Conventional Economic Wisdom Is Wrong, wrote in an opinion piece for Caixin.

Dominant economic power
“This war is about protecting the technological edge that has made the United States the world’s dominant economic power,” the former World Bank director for China added on the Beijing-based media website.

Running alongside the trade spat has been the ZTE saga. The Shenzhen telecom giant has been left crippled after being banned for seven years from buying US-made components, such as semiconductors, wrecking its supply chain.

A stellar company in China’s tech firmament,
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to have violated a sanctions settlement, involving illegal exports to Iran and North Korea, by the US Commerce Department.

Beijing’s take, though, has been quite different, pointing out that this was a direct assault on its cutting-edge tech sector and the coveted “Made in China” policy.

“We have good reasons to question the legality and legitimacy of many actions taken by the US on the grounds of national security, like its plan to impose high tariffs on many industries of ‘Made in China 2025’,” Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, told a media briefing last month. “Clearly, they are targeting something else.”

Still, the same could be said of the move to snap up ARM’s joint venture and the state-sponsored move to dominate tomorrow’s technology today.
 
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