Trade War with China

ZeEa5KPul said:

@manqiangrexue, what do you think should be done with the J-20? Ramp up airframe production now with inferior engines or wait until the WS-15 is ready (or at least looks imminent) before really ramping up production?

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I don't think we should discuss that here. The answer is I don't know. How much power do the current engines give? They are at least AL-31FM2, possibly up-rated. Then there's other systems that are all being improved. If you cannot produce a jet that is easily and cheaply upgrade-able to a future standard (which you would have no way of knowing until that new future standard is completed) then it will depend heavily on what's coming out in the pipeline and when. If we have superior systems ready in 3 months, of course wait for them. If nothing significant is coming until say 2025 when it can be mass-produced with WS-15, then I think production should ramp up now to get the troops used to using a stealth fighter with such flight characteristics. If technologies to make the jet cheaper are coming along soon, it's best to make more $70m copies 6 months from now than to bang out $110m copies now. I just don't know enough information to make a call.

I've been hearing rumors that US is concerned about and has experienced Chinese surveillance capabilities destroying its spy networks hence "tech embargo." What ya'll think.

If it's true, good. And hopefully it only grows more advanced by the day.

Hendrik_2000 said:

As long as better alternative from the west is available Chinese high tech industry will choose the western tech Meantime the domestic semiconductor or semi tool will be starve of market, funding for research and forever will be stunted in growth. Notice the comment of Ren on using Apple cellphone he said he and his family prefer to use apple product. I can't imagine Toyoda saying that

Japanese does not have that attitude right from start of industrialization at the turn of century they try to use domestic product as much as possible . It might be subpar at beginning but with time and effort they get better and better
Japanese automaker for example they promote their own supply chain , Denso in AC, and auto sensor, Renesas in auto chip etc

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But Japan was never actually "enemy". Even with a closed economy, it took Japan much further development to become a "threat". On the other side of the coin, the globalized economy was only being built then. By the time Ren started using an iPhone, the WTO had been established for many years, and China had been admitted. A closed economy, such as Japan's would not be possible. Moreover, every Apple product was being produced in China, and by using Apple, he can get a strong feel for what he's up against.

On the other hand, this could all be bullshit, Ren saying "we are so open, and yet they're trying to screw us". Who knows about this, but either way, Huawei is about the best prepared in China, among the electronics companies, particularly those focusing on the consumer market. And note that the electronics industry is one of the most open ones in China, hence most vulnerable. They would not be able to hurt Chinese companies in other sectors in the same way.

localizer said:

I've been hearing rumors that US is concerned about and has experienced Chinese surveillance capabilities destroying its spy networks hence "tech embargo." What ya'll think.

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manqiangrexue said:

Well, B-1s are not stealthy and the America and Wasp class that F-35 can launch from are both 844 ft compared to 1,100 feet of the Ford so I don't know if that would preclude them from being targets for the DF21D/26. They are almost the size of India's full sized carrier.

If they launch from nearby bases, crater those bases because they are involved in attacking China.


I guess close enough? But I must emphasize that it is very dangerous to dally on minimal deterrence. If you walk near the edge, you always risk falling off. Plus, if you only start ramping up production when it becomes apparent that you will need large numbers of something, it is likely too late. China is not going to be minimally deterrent forever; we need to make investments now moving in the direction of eventually being outright stronger than the US. So defense spending will need to be mostly determined by where China is in defense research. If the funding is saturated with the bottleneck being working time, then off course there is no need to invest even more money than that. But if there are important areas that require spending to get moving, or extra spending would bring significant benefit, then China certainly cannot afford to skimp. Up-to-date is an odd thing to be satisfied with. China certainly aims to world-beating and more in every design but once again, spending will depend on the state of the research and its current bottlenecks in getting there, not on whether or not something is "good enough" or "up to date" to stop or slow further research on it.

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Certainly not, we should keep our pace up and never be complacent. At around 1% gdp we are currently spending, CCP is doing a good job. The first poster said we needed to quadruple our spending, which I thought was just silly. To spend that much is counter productive. China is still a developing country, there are also many internal development urgently needed. I think our goal should be safe guard our interest, not domination of asia, yet. For example, ramp up the research on key technology for self sufficiency is more important for security than up sizing the army. We are at risk of economic warfare more than conventional.

Red Moon said:

But Japan was never actually "enemy". Even with a closed economy, it took Japan much further development to become a "threat". On the other side of the coin, the globalized economy was only being built then. By the time Ren started using an iPhone, the WTO had been established for many years, and China had been admitted. A closed economy, such as Japan's would not be possible. Moreover, every Apple product was being produced in China, and by using Apple, he can get a strong feel for what he's up against.

On the other hand, this could all be bullshit, Ren saying "we are so open, and yet they're trying to screw us". Who knows about this, but either way, Huawei is about the best prepared in China, among the electronics companies, particularly those focusing on the consumer market. And note that the electronics industry is one of the most open ones in China, hence most vulnerable. They would not be able to hurt Chinese companies in other sectors in the same way.

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In a way Chinese economy is more open compare to Japan at similar stage of development So more apple, Samsung, Nokia are available to consumer . Any Chinese smart phone company THAT WANT A PIECE OF THE MARKET has to compete head on with foreign model right from the start So the cheapest way is to design in house and buy similar component from the same supplier that supply their foreign competitor.
So they don't have any need to build supply line or nurture and take equity in their supplier big mistake. Plus it is way cheaper to build supply line in car industry than in semiconductor. In car industry all you need is lather and CNC machine and some cheap building

Japan car industry win over their foreign competitor by being lean and mean plus foreign competition never sell in Japan due to narrow road and cramp living condition So the big Ford, GM never really took off in Japan even today
Also traditionally Japan gasoline cost a lot more so they build their car small

Now how they achieve lean and mean by streamlining the production of car and farm out the component manufacturing as much as possible to their subcontractor or "DE INTEGRATION" where they also take equity and nurture this subcontractor Here is excerpt from MIT sloan school of management

VERTICAL “DE-INTEGRATION.”
The third policy involved decreasing levels of in-house vertical integration between component production and final assembly, while building up networks of lower-wage subsidiaries (and other subcontractors). Toyota began establishing a network of suppliers in the late 1930s and founded all its major subsidiaries during the 1940s. While Nissan took longer to set up a supplier network, by the end of the 1970s Japan’s leading auto firms demonstrated levels of “group integration” (with groups defined by the percentage of total costs they accounted for in-house plus payments to subsidiaries in which Nissan or Toyota held a minimum 20 percent equity share) that were far higher than the most integrated U.S. auto producer, General Motors (see ). This made it possible to achieve many of the benefits of vertical integration without the higher personnel or other costs that formal integration would have required.

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But I wouldn't absolve Huawei They should take interest and nurture semi conductor upstart by investing in their equity and provide advice maybe even market for their product
Huawei is better prepare because they were the longest in US bull eye and they know it will come But they misjudge the severity and viciousness of the attack. In a way they are very naive

Hendrik_2000 said:

But I wouldn't absolve Huawei They should take interest and nurture semi conductor upstart by investing in their equity and provide advice maybe even market for their product
Huawei is better prepare because they were the longest in US bull eye and they know it will come But they misjudge the severity and viciousness of the attack. In a way they are very naive

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I wouldn't take what Ren says at face value. Remember that he's still selling phones in the US, and doing business with other western countries. He's looking to portray Huawei as an underdog, a victim of Trump's bullying.

At what point does Huawei sue the US govt for $30+ billion/year in damages?

localizer said:

At what point does Huawei sue the US govt for $30+ billion/year in damages?

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At the point sovereign immunity is revoked.