Trade War with China

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TK3600

TK3600

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manqiangrexue said:
any extra you have rolls over into the future.
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So you do agree we are spending enough, we just need to raise it if enemy raise it. With american economy it is unlikely to raise the budget.


Now quoted part. Weapons get outdated aand needs constant maintnence. They do not roll into future. Russia will soon see their Soviet equipment outdated. I disagree here
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

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now I read
China restates opposition to U.S. suppression on Chinese firms
Xinhua| 2019-06-20 21:02:57
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China on Thursday expressed firm opposition to a U.S. senator's legislation proposal targeting Chinese firms, saying it is wrong to use state power to suppress Chinese companies.

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio had reportedly filed an amendment to the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act to the Congress. Under the amendment, companies on certain U.S. government watch lists, which would include China's Huawei, would not be allowed to seek relief under U.S. law with respect to U.S. patents, including bringing legal action over patent infringement.

"China firmly opposes the U.S. side to suppress Chinese enterprises by abusing state power," Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang said at a press briefing.

While the United States boasts itself as a country of the rule of law, a U.S. senator seeks legislation to hinder foreign businesses from protecting their legitimate rights according to law, Lu said, adding that such absurdity had provoked uproar both in and outside of the country.

"We didn't expect that certain people in the U.S. would manipulate the law and rules so flagrantly," Lu said. "This will not only tarnish the U.S. reputation and image but also hurt the U.S. companies in the long run."

"We urge the U.S. side to stop its wrongdoings, fairly treat the Chinese firms and create conditions for trade and cooperation between the two countries' companies," he said.

Lu added that China would take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights of the Chinese companies.
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manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

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TK3600 said:
So you do agree we are spending enough, we just need to raise it if enemy raise it. With american economy it is unlikely to raise the budget.


Now quoted part. Weapons get outdated aand needs constant maintnence. They do not roll into future. Russia will soon see their Soviet equipment outdated. I disagree here
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In the current situation, the CCP has likely evaluated this to be the healthy level of spending. Spending more to increase capability might be facing severe diminishing returns due to time needed to spend the money well. I'm fine with this current level this year because I couldn't possibly argue with the decision that the CCP has made with the level of information made available to them, but it is growing every year and I'm saying it should be as well. Certainly, there should not be any reduction. And also, you don't necessarily adjust your spending to your opponent's spending; you adjust it to the capability you can likely buy with it and your ability to afford them. That is how you end up overtaking someone in capability, not by always adjusting your spending to their spending to be perpetual number 2.

Although the physical weapons themselves don't necessarily roll over (yet sometimes, they do), the critical roll-over I'm talking about is design sophistication and experience in manufacturing/developing modern weapons.

Please reread my post that you quoted. I edited in more information about deterrence there.
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

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now I read
China and US negotiating teams scramble to make a plan for Xi Jinping and Donald Trump’s Osaka summit
  • China, US trade teams may meet in Osaka as early as Tuesday, sources say, while top negotiators are set to speak on the phone ahead of the trip
  • Negotiators have not spoken since the talks collapsed in early May but a call between Xi and Trump confirmed the meeting in Japan
Updated: 4:01am, 21 Jun, 2019
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US and Chinese trade negotiators are scrambling to put a plan together, as they look to ease trade tensions ahead of President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump’s meeting in Osaka, Japan, next week.

Negotiating teams – led by United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on the US side and Vice-Premier Liu He on the Chinese side – are expected to meet in Osaka as early as next Tuesday, three days before the start of the G20 leaders’ summit, to prepare for the
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meeting, according to a source who was briefed on the situation but declined to be named.

The trade negotiators have not talked in the six weeks since the talks collapsed in early May. However, a phone conversation between Xi and Trump on Tuesday, during which the two confirmed their meeting in Osaka, has rekindled the process.

Lighthizer said on Wednesday that he would have a phone conversation with his Chinese counterparts “in the next day and a half”, then fly to Osaka with Mnuchin to meet the Chinese delegation before the Trump-Xi summit. He did not elaborate on the timing of the call or the meeting.

Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said at a news conference in Beijing on Thursday that in their talk the lead negotiators on both sides would follow up on the decisions made by Xi and Trump, but he did not provide further details.

“Trade negotiators from both sides will make preparations for the two state leaders’ summit in Osaka,” Gao said. “We believe the two sides will definitely find a solution through dialogue on an equal footing and looking after each others’ concerns.”

Such an arrangement would be similar to the situation ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, late last year. Negotiators held trade talks on the sidelines and worked out proposals, including a three-month trade war truce, for the two leaders to endorse at their sit-down dinner on December 1.

However, the two sides failed at that time to reach a deal to end the trade war, though they did agree to extend the original deadline before an increase in US tariffs.

Eleven rounds of talks have brought both sides close to consensus on most parts of a deal, it is believed, but the remaining differences will be
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.

When the trade talks collapsed in early May, Washington blamed Beijing for reneging on promises it had made earlier, while Beijing responded that the US was asking too much from China and said that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”.

The coming summit between Trump and Xi offers a chance for trade negotiators to revisit the remaining gaps for a possible compromise, analysts said.

Huo Jianguo, the former head of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a think tank under China’s Ministry of Commerce, said the two sides must work together to make any breakthrough because there is little room for either Beijing or Washington to step back.

“It is time for the US to make adjustments, otherwise it will be difficult to make real progress,” Huo said.

An editorial in Global Times, a state-run newspaper affiliated with People’s Daily, argued on Wednesday that China must dig in on its positions.

“If China wants to see a good result in trade talks, it must not be afraid of a trade war and be resolute in holding to its positions,” the article read.

Trade will be one of the central themes for Trump and Xi when the two meet. Trump said after Tuesday’s phone call with Xi that a deal is possible. “I think we have a chance. I know that China wants to make a deal. They do not like the tariffs,” he told reporters.

Ding Shuang, chief China economist at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong, wrote in a research note this week that the two sides “appear to have reached an understanding on 90 per cent of the issues after 11 rounds of talks” and it “will require more political will than time” to resolve the remaining differences.
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TK3600

TK3600

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Hendrik_2000 said:
I don't buy this China spend the least among big power She only spend 1.5%-2% out of the national GDP European spend 2% of GDP. And US regularly spend 3.75% - 4% of GDP
You need strong navy to defend the country and extend the defense perimeter as far a way as possible By the time the enemy ship is on the horizon the war is lost. China should learn from History She was defeated in first Sino-Japanese war because she has crummy navy that latter pave the way for occupation of Liadong peninsula to Japan

Not counting embargo What China will do when the enemy shut the Malacca strait and bottle up the importation of strategic commodity like oil and food ?
She has to send naval expeditionary force to pry open the straits
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tidalwave said:
US harboring motives to evict Chinese from Man made islands militarily. Also help Taiwan fend off China invasion even if Taiwan declares independence.

US first give trade war a shot see if it can weaken China significantly, if not next step is militarily.

US has no interest in attacking mainland, and knowing China no first use on nuke, it knows if it uses conventional military to evict Chinese from Man made island it will only confines to conventional weapons and it has high confidence it can work.
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What is your analysis on that? I think China can win within anti ship ballistic missile range which I assume SCS is in.
 
T

tidalwave

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Hendrik_2000 said:
I don't buy this China spend the least among big power She only spend 1.5%-2% out of the national GDP European spend 2% of GDP. And US regularly spend 3.75% - 4% of GDP
You need strong navy to defend the country and extend the defense perimeter as far a way as possible By the time the enemy ship is on the horizon the war is lost. China should learn from History She was defeated in first Sino-Japanese war because she has crummy navy that latter pave the way for occupation of Liadong peninsula to Japan

Not counting embargo What China will do when the enemy shut the Malacca strait and bottle up the importation of strategic commodity like oil and food ?
She has to send naval expeditionary force to pry open the straits
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That's too hard to do if US forces blockade on Malacca strait. I don't see China naval forces able to do that even if it has multiple carrier strike groups.

Better to supply and use proxy like Taliban to evict US ground forces from Afghanistan. With Russia , China and rest of SCO clean out US ground forces in Central Asia.

I feel that has better chance.

Trade and oil supply from land route.
 
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T

tidalwave

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TK3600 said:
What is your analysis on that? I think China can win within anti ship ballistic missile range which I assume SCS is in.
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I read a number of US military articles that pointed out US carriers forces are not optimal against China in South China Sea, it ace weapon is its submarines forces, and F35B from amphibious forces, plus B1 lancer carrying LRSAM against China naval ships. Current situation is very dangerous for China. It's J11B and even SU35 can't handle the F35B in South China Sea.

There won't be carriers for DF21D, DF26 to shoot at.
 
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