Trade War with China

Tam · Jun 6, 2019

manqiangrexue said:
Chinese developers represents the largest market in the world now so if these countries want to earn money with their apps, they'd better make a version for the OS of the Chinese market.

But that's my take. According to your take, what is the correct solution for China/Huawei?

I would portray Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Cisco, Yahoo, Twitter, and Facebook as security risks for being data collection agencies on you either for profit or for the US. Then I would sell the new Huawei product as secure. This may work only on Russia and BRI regions, but other than that, the world is heavily dependent on Google, Microsoft, Apple and Facebook services.

This would virtually split the tech world in half, or two thirds to a third. There is already a Great Wall of tech between China and the rest of the world when it comes to services (Alipay, QQ, WeChat, Weibo and so on, versus Facebook, GMail, YouTube and so on.) The sad part is that US tech companies are not belligerent to China and are looking to invest or set roots there, such as Facebook. Google ain't banned in China by the way, and they operate some research centers in China, plus they also collect ad revenue there. I honestly don't like this but this is where it might be heading into. I am not really fond of throwing the baby out with the bathwater strategies either.

Losing Huawei is already a massive blow to Google, and Huawei has been a strong counterbalance to Samsung's dominance of the Android ecosystem. Google and Samsung has their own ongoing feud or rivalry for Android dominance, hence why Google makes Pixel phones. Losing Huawei would cost Google hundreds of millions each year. The US also loses too, as one less Huawei device is one less device for Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, Twitter, and all the US apps in the Play Store. These devices are a Win-Win all for both sides and losing them is a lose-lose all.

The low razor thin margins on smartphones should suggest that even to Huawei, this shouldn't be your future, and even Samsung is quietly moving away from that. Samsung made more money selling displays and memory chips to smartphones than selling smartphones. Huawei should do the same --- selling components to other smartphone makers. Don't care about OS or Android, just get HiSilicon chips inside your Oppo, Vivo, your OnePlus, Motorola and Xiaomi. You would make more money that way. Huawei should take its smartphone division and sell it, or spun it off into an independent unit. When a company is doing too many things, it also loses focus and the rot sets in, which is the fate of too many US companies.

manqiangrexue · Jun 7, 2019

Tam said:
I would portray Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Cisco, Yahoo, Twitter, and Facebook as security risks for being data collection agencies on you either for profit or for the US. Then I would sell the new Huawei product as secure. This may work only on Russia and BRI regions, but other than that, the world is heavily dependent on Google, Microsoft, Apple and Facebook services.

This would virtually split the tech world in half, or two thirds to a third. There is already a Great Wall of tech between China and the rest of the world when it comes to services (Alipay, QQ, WeChat, Weibo and so on, versus Facebook, GMail, YouTube and so on.) The sad part is that US tech companies are not belligerent to China and are looking to invest or set roots there, such as Facebook. Google ain't banned in China by the way, and they operate some research centers in China, plus they also collect ad revenue there. I honestly don't like this but this is where it might be heading into. I am not really fond of throwing the baby out with the bathwater strategies either.

Losing Huawei is already a massive blow to Google, and Huawei has been a strong counterbalance to Samsung's dominance of the Android ecosystem. Google and Samsung has their own ongoing feud or rivalry for Android dominance, hence why Google makes Pixel phones. Losing Huawei would cost Google hundreds of millions each year. The US also loses too, as one less Huawei device is one less device for Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, Twitter, and all the US apps in the Play Store. These devices are a Win-Win all for both sides and losing them is a lose-lose all.

The low razor thin margins on smartphones should suggest that even to Huawei, this shouldn't be your future, and even Samsung is quietly moving away from that. Samsung made more money selling displays and memory chips to smartphones than selling smartphones. Huawei should do the same --- selling components to other smartphone makers. Don't care about OS or Android, just get HiSilicon chips inside your Oppo, Vivo, your OnePlus, Motorola and Xiaomi. You would make more money that way. Huawei should take its smartphone division and sell it, or spun it off into an independent unit. When a company is doing too many things, it also loses focus and the rot sets in, which is the fate of too many US companies.

So this sounds like you want Huawei to abandon MongMeng OS and sell components to other smartphone companies and they can keep using Android from Google. So what if this happens again and the US bans Google from allowing all Chinese companies from using Android? Where will China's OS come from if Huawei is not to make it now? Who is in a better position to make it than Huawei today, and why wouldn't they encounter the same challenges?

I would not make the mistake of separate treatment between the US government and its companies. That is is a trap, for the US government to cause trouble for China while protecting its vulnerabilities by being "nice" where its soft. America is a democracy so every company and citizen should be held responsible for the actions of those who they have elected. Treat American companies like they are Trump themselves, not by being outwardly nasty to them, but by taking what you need from them while making your long-term plans to exclude them from China's future.

FriedRiceNSpice · Jun 7, 2019

Tam said:
Going to another topic, I believe the "Unreliable" list are going to be filled with US tech companies including Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook and so on, companies that collect individual data. This is meant not just as a warning for Chinese inside China but also out of it. But you know, the EU is already heading this path way ahead of China and the EU crusade against US tech companies may do more damage to the US than any Chinese measure.

You don't really even need the EU, there is already an ongoing US crusade against big tech that is seems to be supported by both parties. Democrat candidates have proposed outright splitting up the biggest tech companies into dozens of smaller less competitive companies. It is shockingly idiotic, don't know how these imbeciles get elected into office.

Tam · Jun 7, 2019

FriedRiceNSpice said:
You don't really even need the EU, there is already an ongoing US crusade against big tech that is seems to be supported by both parties. Democrat candidates have proposed outright splitting up the biggest tech companies into dozens of smaller less competitive companies. It is shockingly idiotic, don't know how these imbeciles get elected into office.

Even if you don't need the EU, the EU will do it anyway. If China wants to get back at the US tech companies (if ever should they choose to, but I don't think they are willing for now), China will have to wait in line.

Attacks on the FAANG will likely boomerang into the US stock market, and we are precariously now into recession watch territory.

Tam · Jun 7, 2019

manqiangrexue said:
So this sounds like you want Huawei to abandon MongMeng OS and sell components to other smartphone companies and they can keep using Android from Google. So what if this happens again and the US bans Google from allowing all Chinese companies from using Android? Where will China's OS come from if Huawei is not to make it now? Who is in a better position to make it than Huawei today, and why wouldn't they encounter the same challenges?

Android itself will die at this point, and this will hurt Qualcomm deeply in its bottom line. The effect will also be felt by TSMC and Samsung, who supplies displays and memory chips, and Corning USA who supplies the Gorilla Glass. We are talking about significant deep cuts of revenue that might bring these companies into the red.

Huawei is not in a better position and is not ready to do software evangelism overnight. Microsoft is far more experienced --- wrote the book on software evangelism --- but even they could not help Windows Phone, not even with Nokia behind it.

I would not make the mistake of separate treatment between the US government and its companies. That is is a trap, for the US government to cause trouble for China while protecting its vulnerabilities by being "nice" where its soft. America is a democracy so every company and citizen should be held responsible for the actions of those who they have elected. Treat American companies like they are Trump themselves, not by being outwardly nasty to them, but by taking what you need from them while making your long-term plans to exclude them from China's future.

The US government does not care about the US tech companies, so why hurt the US tech companies when they are still trying to speak in behalf of China. Even companies like Boeing you cannot hit them as COMAC has a lucrative deal with Boeing making sections of 737s.

China should just continue to do what it needs to do and what its already done, hit the US in the economies of Republican land, and that's agriculture and energy. China should stop buying oil and gas from the US as well, and gradually also away from the Middle East and other US dollar denominated energy sources and towards energy self sufficiency, and towards recyclable energy. Then slowly lean away its huge Treasuries account, stop buying Treasuries and buying gold and silver instead to act as an anchor for the Yuan. In doing so, China will stop financing US deficit. They have already begun a gradual sell off of US Treasuries since March. If the US goes into another QE to stave off recession, you don't know what its going to affect the US dollar in the long run, so what's going to happen if you hold too much US dollars?

Lnk111229 · Jun 7, 2019

Not related but any Chinese here think about Canada now? Because while browsing through Youtube look like those kidnapper hypocrite still not amid those fault do dirty thing for US and call Chinese retaliation on them is "gunboat diplomacy".

manqiangrexue · Jun 7, 2019

Tam said:
Android itself will die at this point, and this will hurt Qualcomm deeply in its bottom line. The effect will also be felt by TSMC and Samsung, who supplies displays and memory chips, and Corning USA who supplies the Gorilla Glass. We are talking about significant deep cuts of revenue that might bring these companies into the red.

Huawei is not in a better position and is not ready to do software evangelism overnight. Microsoft is far more experienced --- wrote the book on software evangelism --- but even they could not help Windows Phone, not even with Nokia behind it.

Once again, your suggestion is to create no new OS and remain reliant on Google? And your theory is that this vulnerability will not be exploited because the US has too much self-preservation?

I disagree. The more China grows, the more desperate the US government becomes and there will be a day when it's willing to destroy all of its own tech to stop China's rising, or at least there could be. China cannot be vulnerable to that.

China's new OS has an advantage that no other challenger OS had and that's when push comes to shove, the Chinese government can mandate that all phones sold in China use it, immediately creating a huge market and incentive for tech/app companies to create an environment for it. China cannot depend on US tech anymore. I don't know if I understand you but this point seems to be missing from your solution.

Tam said:
The US government does not care about the US tech companies, so why hurt the US tech companies when they are still trying to speak in behalf of China. Even companies like Boeing you cannot hit them as COMAC has a lucrative deal with Boeing making sections of 737s.

Because their success vaults America and their profits finance America. You absolutely cannot pursue a strategy that lifts these companies up simply because they are nicer than Trump because Trump will point to their success as his success and evidence of him "winning." And you cannot make a situation where American companies prosper while Chinese companies suffer; if Chinese companies take a hit, American ones have to take a much bigger hit.

Tam said:
China should just continue to do what it needs to do and what its already done, hit the US in the economies of Republican land, and that's agriculture and energy. China should stop buying oil and gas from the US as well, and gradually also away from the Middle East and other US dollar denominated energy sources and towards energy self sufficiency, and towards recyclable energy. Then slowly lean away its huge Treasuries account, stop buying Treasuries and buying gold and silver instead to act as an anchor for the Yuan. In doing so, China will stop financing US deficit. They have already begun a gradual sell off of US Treasuries since March. If the US goes into another QE to stave off recession, you don't know what its going to affect the US dollar in the long run, so what's going to happen if you hold too much US dollars?

I agree.

weig2000 · Jun 7, 2019

How serious an Android-compatible, Huawei smartphone OS is a threat? Apparently, seriously enough for Google to quietly lobby the US Department of Commerce to allow it to continue to support the Android that Huawei smartphones have, making an exception to Google from the Huawei Ban. What's the excuse of the lobby? National security, of course.

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Group pushing Trump officials over fears it will not be allowed to update Android operating system

Kiran Stacey and James Politi in Washington 2 hours ago

Google has warned the Trump administration it risks compromising US national security if it pushes ahead with sweeping export restrictions on Huawei, as the technology group seeks to continue doing business with the blacklisted Chinese company.

Senior executives at Google are pushing US officials to exempt it from a ban on exports to Huawei without a licence approved by Washington, according to three people briefed on the conversations.

The Trump administration announced the ban after the US-China trade talks collapsed, prompting protests from some of the biggest US technology companies who fear they could get hurt in the fallout.

Google in particular is concerned it would not be allowed to update its Android operating system on Huawei’s smartphones, which it argues would prompt the Chinese company to develop its own version of the software.

Google argues a Huawei-modified version of Android would be more susceptible to being hacked, according to people briefed on its lobbying efforts. Huawei has said it would be able to develop its own operating system “very quickly”.

One person with knowledge of the conversations said: “Google has been arguing that by stopping it from dealing with Huawei, the US risks creating two kinds of Android operating system: the genuine version and a hybrid one. The hybrid one is likely to have more bugs in it than the Google one, and so could put Huawei phones more at risk of being hacked, not least by China.”

Washington has been concerned for years that telecoms equipment sold by Huawei could be used by Beijing for hacking. But since Donald Trump entered office, these concerns have come to the fore.

Last month, the Trump administration announced a fresh set of measures targeting the Chinese company. They include giving the commerce department the power to ban Huawei from selling 5G equipment in the US, as well as a blanket ban on American companies selling their products to the Chinese group.

After the ban was imposed, Google suspended business with Huawei, cutting it off from potential updates to Android. Since then, however, the administration has granted a 90-day reprieve for companies to adjust.

In the past few weeks, senior Google executives have approached the commerce department asking either for another extension or to be exempted from the ban altogether, according to those briefed on the conversations. In doing so, it has joined groups representing major US microchip makers such as Qualcomm, who are also worried about the impact the ban will have on their business.

A commerce department official said its Bureau of Industry and Security routinely responded to “inquiries from companies regarding the scope of regulatory requirements”, in order to “ensure private industry compliance” with export controls.

“This is not new to this administration, nor do these discussions influence law enforcement actions,” the person said. “The highest priority of the department and BIS remains the protection of our nation’s security.”

Google said: “Like other US companies, we’re engaging with the Department of Commerce to ensure we’re in full compliance with its requirements and temporary licence. Our focus is protecting the security of Google users on the millions of existing Huawei handsets in the US and around the world.”

SPOOPYSKELETON · Jun 7, 2019

Lnk111229 said:
Not related but any Chinese here think about Canada now? Because while browsing through Youtube look like those kidnapper hypocrite still not amid those fault do dirty thing for US and call Chinese retaliation on them is "gunboat diplomacy".

Gunboat diplomacy with neither gunboats nor diplomacy. China should just start exporting its trash to Canada uninvited (humans included).

Quickie · Jun 7, 2019

PikeCowboy said:
Monopoly laws, a company cannot choose who to sell products to within a single market. Either sell to Huawei or sell to no-one (export oriented manufacturing is another matter).
A producer must offer the same product to all customers/clients within a single market or face anti-trust suits.

Apparently, from the way how things have turned out, there is no Monopoly Laws, or No Law, in the U.S.

Trade War with China

Tam

Brigadier

manqiangrexue

Brigadier

FriedRiceNSpice

Captain

Tam

Brigadier

Tam

Brigadier

Lnk111229

Junior Member

manqiangrexue

Brigadier

weig2000

Captain

SPOOPYSKELETON

Junior Member

Quickie

Colonel