Trade War with China
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Hendrik_2000
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Once again, the Trump administration has lashed out at China. It's trying to hit China's technology sector. But it will only give China more reasons to make the technology themselves.
This ban isa short term instant gratification but the lng term effect will massive loss of China market for US Technology firm. Already Qualcomm lay off 1500 people and most of supplier for ZTE loss in wall street
This ban isa short term instant gratification but the lng term effect will massive loss of China market for US Technology firm. Already Qualcomm lay off 1500 people and most of supplier for ZTE loss in wall street
This article nails it. Some articles are saying that China will get hurt more in a trade war versus the US, the reality is, the US is already getting hurt from it more evidently, from its farmers, to the recent stock market drops, to losses like Qualcomm and ZTE's American partners like Acacia.
From Foreignpolicy.com
From Foreignpolicy.com
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Indeed, it’s a massive wake up call, and I think there will now be a multi industry wide drive to diversify away from American components at all levels.
Huawei for example, would be stupid not to put in place contingency plans or downright switch suppliers preemptively away from American ones.
Ironically, it also gives China a national security excuse to make American companies who want major Chinese contracts to either set up sanction proof manufacturing subsidiaries in mainland China so Trump or future American administrations could not manufacture some random reason to ban imports of key materials and components on a lark; or to sell their technology to a Chinese player as the price of entry to ensure Chinese national security is not compromised by a possible politically driven export ban by the US.
And Trump would be wise to stop while he is ahead on the ban side. China could retaliate by banning the sale and transfer of Chinese rare earth materials to US companies.
That is a nuclear option, as it will decimate the entire US high tech industry, but it is most certainly a card China could play if pushed far enough.
Of course, it doesn’t need to be explicitly stated as such for legal considerations, China could simply pass a new law requiring export licences for foreign companies to buy rare earths (with end use verification requirements), and simply lock all licence requests from American companies in red tape limbo for months or years.
And before anyone suggest the US simply get 3rd parties to buy the rare earths from China and then sell on to America, that is where the ban on transfer and end use verification parts come in.
The licences would only be granted to companies that can demonstrate and prove end-use, so no shell companies can get a licence. Any company that actually needs rare earths for their own operations would be risking the viability of its own existing operation to open a side business selling rare earths to embargoed American companies, so it would make little sense for the big companies to risk it, and the little ones won’t be able to buy enough extra to make any difference in the grand scheme of things without raising obvious red flags by trying to buy orders many times their previous annual purchases.
Jura The idiot
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Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Via Taishang. US think only they can supply ag product but there are other producer of agriculture product
By Chu Daye Source:Global Times Published: 2018/4/19
Strong demand, Sino-US trade tension provide opening
China will work with Russia to actively expand bilateral trade and further ease mutual market access for agricultural products, a Chinese official said on Thursday.
Mature Sino-Russian ties are not affected by external factors, and bilateral trade between China and Russia has rebounded swiftly in recent years, Gao Feng, a spokesperson for the Chinese , said at a press briefing Thursday.
In the first quarter, Sino-Russian trade recorded robust growth, with the bilateral trade value increasing by nearly 30 percent year-on-year, and the trade value for 2018 is expected to exceed $100 billion, according to Gao.
Going forward, the two sides will work on expanding mutual market access for agricultural products, boost cross border e-commerce and further speed up trade facilitation, Gao said.
The statements came as the US continues its sanctions against Russia and amid concerns that certain sanction measures could hurt Sino-Russian trade.
Sun Zhenbo, an agricultural businessman with Erenhot Jinguyuan Grain and Oil Co, said that trade of agricultural goods between China and Russia has been growing at a rapid pace in the past two years.
At the end of 2015, China and Russia signed an agreement over the imports of Russian soybeans, corn, rice and rapeseed, and Russian agricultural imports have been surging since then, noted Sun, whose company is based in Erenhot in North China's Inner Mongolia Province.
"In 2016, the Port of Erenhot imported 60,000 tons of agricultural products, almost all of which were from Mongolia. But in 2017, the import volume reached 200,000 tons, and many of these imports came from Russia," Sun said.
In 2017, the trade volume between China and Russia reached $84.07 billion yuan, up 20.8 percent year-on-year, according to customs data.
"Year-to-date, imports of Russian goods at Erenhot have reached 40,000 tons, and the trend is that Russia is replacing Mongolia as the primary source of agricultural product imports," Sun told the Global Times on Thursday.
Russia's capacity to produce massive amounts of agricultural products, its stringent food safety regulations and better packaging that can prevent vegetable epidemics all contributed to the increase, said Sun.
Exports of Russian soybeans to China are still in the early stages. All the ports in Northeast China's Heilongjiang Province, for instance, imported a total of just 515,000 tons of Russian soybeans in 2017, according to media reports.
Sun said that as the rising trade tensions between China and the US will affect US-produced soybeans, Russian soybeans have great prospects.
"The price of Russian soybeans will be a determining factor in their ability to gain market share in China. On the Chinese side, its demand for soybeans is rigid as it is an 80-million-ton market. If the Sino-US soybean trade faces long-term uncertainty, there will surely be an increase of Russian soybean imports in China," Sun said.
***
One's loss, other's gain.
artay:
By Chu Daye Source:Global Times Published: 2018/4/19
Strong demand, Sino-US trade tension provide opening
China will work with Russia to actively expand bilateral trade and further ease mutual market access for agricultural products, a Chinese official said on Thursday.
Mature Sino-Russian ties are not affected by external factors, and bilateral trade between China and Russia has rebounded swiftly in recent years, Gao Feng, a spokesperson for the Chinese , said at a press briefing Thursday.
In the first quarter, Sino-Russian trade recorded robust growth, with the bilateral trade value increasing by nearly 30 percent year-on-year, and the trade value for 2018 is expected to exceed $100 billion, according to Gao.
Going forward, the two sides will work on expanding mutual market access for agricultural products, boost cross border e-commerce and further speed up trade facilitation, Gao said.
The statements came as the US continues its sanctions against Russia and amid concerns that certain sanction measures could hurt Sino-Russian trade.
Sun Zhenbo, an agricultural businessman with Erenhot Jinguyuan Grain and Oil Co, said that trade of agricultural goods between China and Russia has been growing at a rapid pace in the past two years.
At the end of 2015, China and Russia signed an agreement over the imports of Russian soybeans, corn, rice and rapeseed, and Russian agricultural imports have been surging since then, noted Sun, whose company is based in Erenhot in North China's Inner Mongolia Province.
"In 2016, the Port of Erenhot imported 60,000 tons of agricultural products, almost all of which were from Mongolia. But in 2017, the import volume reached 200,000 tons, and many of these imports came from Russia," Sun said.
In 2017, the trade volume between China and Russia reached $84.07 billion yuan, up 20.8 percent year-on-year, according to customs data.
"Year-to-date, imports of Russian goods at Erenhot have reached 40,000 tons, and the trend is that Russia is replacing Mongolia as the primary source of agricultural product imports," Sun told the Global Times on Thursday.
Russia's capacity to produce massive amounts of agricultural products, its stringent food safety regulations and better packaging that can prevent vegetable epidemics all contributed to the increase, said Sun.
Exports of Russian soybeans to China are still in the early stages. All the ports in Northeast China's Heilongjiang Province, for instance, imported a total of just 515,000 tons of Russian soybeans in 2017, according to media reports.
Sun said that as the rising trade tensions between China and the US will affect US-produced soybeans, Russian soybeans have great prospects.
"The price of Russian soybeans will be a determining factor in their ability to gain market share in China. On the Chinese side, its demand for soybeans is rigid as it is an 80-million-ton market. If the Sino-US soybean trade faces long-term uncertainty, there will surely be an increase of Russian soybean imports in China," Sun said.
***
One's loss, other's gain.
artay:
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
No one win in trade war
Report: Ships carrying US sorghum stuck at sea after China imposes tariffs
BY JOHN BOWDEN - 04/20/18 10:24 AM EDT
224
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/384126-report-ships-carrying-sorghum-from-us-turn-around-after-china-imposes-tariffs
© Getty Images
Several China-bound ships carrying U.S. sorghum exports have changed course since China's government announced a new tariff targeting the U.S. grain industry this week.
reports that 20 ships carrying more than 1.2 million tons of U.S. sorghum are currently at sea, with at least five of them announcing new courses after China's government announced a new tariff on sorghum Tuesday morning.
The grain on board the 20 ships is valued at more than $216 million, but China is now forcing grains handlers to pay a 178.6 percent tariff of the value of the shipments as a deposit upon arriving.
U.S. sorghum is relatively cheap in China due to artificial price inflation, which experts say allows the country to target a U.S. export from typically red states. China started mass importing sorghum in 2014 as a result of inflated grain prices set by China's government.
China announced the tariff on sorghum this week alongside an action meant to free up restrictions on U.S. auto exports, a decision that could benefit U.S. auto companies that do not already have a footprint in the country.
Trade analysts told Reuters that tariffs targeting U.S. grain shipments could lead to an escalation of the back-and-forth tariffs that the U.S. and China have rolled out in recent weeks.
“For their overall trade businesses, this is not that substantial. But it’s a warning,” Bill Densmore, senior director of corporate ratings at Fitch Ratings, told Reuters. “If China really does start slapping tariffs on everything, like soybeans and corn, things could get really ugly, really fast.”
Tom Sleight, president of the U.S. Grain Council, reacted to China's most recent tariff by calling for an end to the Trump administration's escalating tough talk aimed at China's trade policies.
“This tit for tat has to stop, and talks to find reasonable and lasting solutions must begin, for the good of U.S. agriculture and the customers we have spent decades working to win as loyal buyers,” he said
Report: Ships carrying US sorghum stuck at sea after China imposes tariffs
BY JOHN BOWDEN - 04/20/18 10:24 AM EDT
224
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/384126-report-ships-carrying-sorghum-from-us-turn-around-after-china-imposes-tariffs
© Getty Images
Several China-bound ships carrying U.S. sorghum exports have changed course since China's government announced a new tariff targeting the U.S. grain industry this week.
reports that 20 ships carrying more than 1.2 million tons of U.S. sorghum are currently at sea, with at least five of them announcing new courses after China's government announced a new tariff on sorghum Tuesday morning.
The grain on board the 20 ships is valued at more than $216 million, but China is now forcing grains handlers to pay a 178.6 percent tariff of the value of the shipments as a deposit upon arriving.
U.S. sorghum is relatively cheap in China due to artificial price inflation, which experts say allows the country to target a U.S. export from typically red states. China started mass importing sorghum in 2014 as a result of inflated grain prices set by China's government.
China announced the tariff on sorghum this week alongside an action meant to free up restrictions on U.S. auto exports, a decision that could benefit U.S. auto companies that do not already have a footprint in the country.
Trade analysts told Reuters that tariffs targeting U.S. grain shipments could lead to an escalation of the back-and-forth tariffs that the U.S. and China have rolled out in recent weeks.
“For their overall trade businesses, this is not that substantial. But it’s a warning,” Bill Densmore, senior director of corporate ratings at Fitch Ratings, told Reuters. “If China really does start slapping tariffs on everything, like soybeans and corn, things could get really ugly, really fast.”
Tom Sleight, president of the U.S. Grain Council, reacted to China's most recent tariff by calling for an end to the Trump administration's escalating tough talk aimed at China's trade policies.
“This tit for tat has to stop, and talks to find reasonable and lasting solutions must begin, for the good of U.S. agriculture and the customers we have spent decades working to win as loyal buyers,” he said
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Sorghum Trade Is Drying Up in U.S. After China Imposes Tariffs
By
Shruti Singh
April 20, 2018, 12:21 PM CDT
“There’s been very little trade,” Bob Ludington, who oversees Omaha-based Scoular’s North America grain and oilseed division, said in an interview Thursday. While some U.S. grain elevators are still bidding for sorghum, “nobody is looking” for it in the Gulf, he said.
Scoular has elevators in Kansas that buy crops including sorghum. The company then ships supplies around the U.S. as well as to Mexico and exporters in the Gulf.
China has been the biggest importer of U.S. supplies. When the Asian country announced an investigation into American shipments in February, sorghum prices dropped on speculation that tariffs would be imposed, erasing the premium the grain had fetched over corn prices in Kansas.
Now that the tariffs are here, sorghum prices relative to corn must drop to attract domestic as well as international customers, said Ludington, who is based in Overland Park, Kansas.
Sorghum is fed to livestock and poultry and is also used to make ethanol. It has been priced out of the U.S. animal-feed market because of strong Chinese demand over the last few years, Ludington said. Where U.S. supplies may go now isn’t certain, but Mexico may be a potential destination, he said.
— With assistance by Jeff Wilson
By
Shruti Singh
April 20, 2018, 12:21 PM CDT
- Bids have almost disappeared in Gulf of Mexico, Scoular says
- Prices for the grain are seen heading lower relative to corn
“There’s been very little trade,” Bob Ludington, who oversees Omaha-based Scoular’s North America grain and oilseed division, said in an interview Thursday. While some U.S. grain elevators are still bidding for sorghum, “nobody is looking” for it in the Gulf, he said.
Scoular has elevators in Kansas that buy crops including sorghum. The company then ships supplies around the U.S. as well as to Mexico and exporters in the Gulf.
China has been the biggest importer of U.S. supplies. When the Asian country announced an investigation into American shipments in February, sorghum prices dropped on speculation that tariffs would be imposed, erasing the premium the grain had fetched over corn prices in Kansas.
Now that the tariffs are here, sorghum prices relative to corn must drop to attract domestic as well as international customers, said Ludington, who is based in Overland Park, Kansas.
Sorghum is fed to livestock and poultry and is also used to make ethanol. It has been priced out of the U.S. animal-feed market because of strong Chinese demand over the last few years, Ludington said. Where U.S. supplies may go now isn’t certain, but Mexico may be a potential destination, he said.
— With assistance by Jeff Wilson
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
About time they crank up all those chip via Beijing walker and cirr
Major Chinese Memory Companies Arrange Trial Production to Begin in 2H18
April 20, 2018 | TrendForce
According to DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, China has entered the semiconductor sector and focused on the development of domestic memory industry. The three key players are YMTC, Innotron(Hefei Chang Xin) and JHICC, which work on NAND Flash, mobile DRAM and specialty DRAM respectively. All three companies have arranged trial production to begin in 2H18 and mass production to begin in 1H19. This will make 2019 the first year of China’s domestic memory chip production.
As for the schedules of the three suppliers, the construction of Innotron’s fab was completed in June 2017 and the equipment installation took place during 3Q17. For now, Innotron and JHICC have both postponed trial production to 3Q18 and tentatively arrange mass production to take place in 1H19, falling behind their announced schedule. Furthermore, Innotron apparently wants to compete head to head with top DRAM suppliers by choosing LPDDR4 8Gb chips as its first product, but there is a strong possibility that Innotron will have potential issues of patent infringement. To avoid arguments, Innotron will need accrue IPs that are recognized by the international laws. Another safer approach is to sell products only in the domestic market at the outset.
JHICC, which pursues the manufacturing of specialty DRAM, unveiled a plan in July 2016 to invest US$5.3 billion in constructing a 12-inch wafer fab in Jinjiang, Fujian Province. JHICC has deferred the trial production of its specialty DRAM products to 3Q18 and their mass production to 1H19.
In terms of China’s domestic NAND Flash industry, YMTC’s national memory base broke ground at the end of December 2016, and three 3D-NAND Flash manufacturing plants are arranged to be built sequentially in three phases. The construction of the first-phase plant was completed in September 2017, and the equipment installation is set to commence in 3Q18. The first-phase plant is also scheduled to begin trial production in 4Q18. During its early operational period, the first-phase plant will be producing 32-layer MLC 3D-NAND Flash, and its wafer starts are not expected to exceed 10,000 per month. The construction of the second- and third-phase plants and their production plans will proceed according to the situation after YMTC perfects its 64-layer design, says DRAMeXchange.
Based on R&D and production plans of domestic DRAM suppliers, DRAMeXchange expects the Chinese memory industry to formally begin production in 2019. As Chinese suppliers will need time to ramp up, the competitive landscape of the global DRAM market will not change immediately following the entry of JHICC and Innotron. For both DRAM and NAND industry, these Chinese semiconductor companies are still new comers that may experience more challenges compared with established memory chip makers, so there is a possibility that they progress slower than expected and have delays in their schedules.
In the long term, Chinese DRAM suppliers may be able to operate on a fully loaded capacity in 2020-2021 as they achieve maturation for their products. Together, JHICC and Innotron’s total production capacity is forecast to reach 250,000 wafers per month in 2020-2021. They thus will have some influence over the global DRAM market by that time. On the other hand, since the three facilities together will have a total capacity of 300,000 wafers per month, YMTC may start to significantly raise its wafer starts once it has finished developing its 64-layer products. This ramp-up in turn may have a huge effect on the overall market supply of NAND Flash in the next three to five years.
Major Chinese Memory Companies Arrange Trial Production to Begin in 2H18
April 20, 2018 | TrendForce
According to DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, China has entered the semiconductor sector and focused on the development of domestic memory industry. The three key players are YMTC, Innotron(Hefei Chang Xin) and JHICC, which work on NAND Flash, mobile DRAM and specialty DRAM respectively. All three companies have arranged trial production to begin in 2H18 and mass production to begin in 1H19. This will make 2019 the first year of China’s domestic memory chip production.
As for the schedules of the three suppliers, the construction of Innotron’s fab was completed in June 2017 and the equipment installation took place during 3Q17. For now, Innotron and JHICC have both postponed trial production to 3Q18 and tentatively arrange mass production to take place in 1H19, falling behind their announced schedule. Furthermore, Innotron apparently wants to compete head to head with top DRAM suppliers by choosing LPDDR4 8Gb chips as its first product, but there is a strong possibility that Innotron will have potential issues of patent infringement. To avoid arguments, Innotron will need accrue IPs that are recognized by the international laws. Another safer approach is to sell products only in the domestic market at the outset.
JHICC, which pursues the manufacturing of specialty DRAM, unveiled a plan in July 2016 to invest US$5.3 billion in constructing a 12-inch wafer fab in Jinjiang, Fujian Province. JHICC has deferred the trial production of its specialty DRAM products to 3Q18 and their mass production to 1H19.
In terms of China’s domestic NAND Flash industry, YMTC’s national memory base broke ground at the end of December 2016, and three 3D-NAND Flash manufacturing plants are arranged to be built sequentially in three phases. The construction of the first-phase plant was completed in September 2017, and the equipment installation is set to commence in 3Q18. The first-phase plant is also scheduled to begin trial production in 4Q18. During its early operational period, the first-phase plant will be producing 32-layer MLC 3D-NAND Flash, and its wafer starts are not expected to exceed 10,000 per month. The construction of the second- and third-phase plants and their production plans will proceed according to the situation after YMTC perfects its 64-layer design, says DRAMeXchange.
Based on R&D and production plans of domestic DRAM suppliers, DRAMeXchange expects the Chinese memory industry to formally begin production in 2019. As Chinese suppliers will need time to ramp up, the competitive landscape of the global DRAM market will not change immediately following the entry of JHICC and Innotron. For both DRAM and NAND industry, these Chinese semiconductor companies are still new comers that may experience more challenges compared with established memory chip makers, so there is a possibility that they progress slower than expected and have delays in their schedules.
In the long term, Chinese DRAM suppliers may be able to operate on a fully loaded capacity in 2020-2021 as they achieve maturation for their products. Together, JHICC and Innotron’s total production capacity is forecast to reach 250,000 wafers per month in 2020-2021. They thus will have some influence over the global DRAM market by that time. On the other hand, since the three facilities together will have a total capacity of 300,000 wafers per month, YMTC may start to significantly raise its wafer starts once it has finished developing its 64-layer products. This ramp-up in turn may have a huge effect on the overall market supply of NAND Flash in the next three to five years.
Jura The idiot
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