The question is will Xi Jinping go down as another Chinese that signs an equal treaty so that USA can stay number one. To be fair Xi does not make a strong impression upon me but a la I don't know if Beijing has a plan or not. Beijing does not inform the Chinese populace what they have discussed and agreed upon behind close doors during the last five meetings with US officials.
Trade War with China
- Thread starter Ultra
- Start date
- Status
The question is will Xi Jinping go down as another Chinese that signs an equal treaty so that USA can stay number one. To be fair Xi does not make a strong impression upon me but a la I don't know if Beijing has a plan or not. Beijing does not inform the Chinese populace what they have discussed and agreed upon behind close doors during the last five meetings with US officials.
The question is will Xi Jinping go down as another Chinese that signs an unequal treaty so that USA can stay number one and with it destroy the future of Chinese nation and people. To be fair Xi does not make a strong impression upon me but a la I don't know if Beijing has a plan or not. Beijing does not inform the Chinese populace what they have discussed and agreed upon behind close doors during the last five meetings with US officials.
That would be my fear as well. Hopefully not though.
What we know so far:
China and America will work together on removing the trade surplus.
America will bring down tariff and non tariff barriers, likely allow Huawei to bid on it’s 5G network
Just looking at what we know, a deal can be on either sides’ favor or even no one’s side.
To have any real chance at removing the trade surplus, America will have to sell military equipment or lease a base. China can bankroll it with US treasuries, so it’s no big deal regardless of cost. Worst case, US backtracks and we get status quo. Best case, China gets affordable boost to it’s military power.
Regarding trade barriers, the real game changer is whether China gets to sign it’s courts into US like it did in Canada. That makes it much harder for US to touch Chinese assets since they have to go through Chinese court first. That’s probably best case. Worst case, status quo.
That’s not counting the part of negotiation we haven’t seen yet that could be more crazy on both sides.
China and America will work together on removing the trade surplus.
America will bring down tariff and non tariff barriers, likely allow Huawei to bid on it’s 5G network
Just looking at what we know, a deal can be on either sides’ favor or even no one’s side.
To have any real chance at removing the trade surplus, America will have to sell military equipment or lease a base. China can bankroll it with US treasuries, so it’s no big deal regardless of cost. Worst case, US backtracks and we get status quo. Best case, China gets affordable boost to it’s military power.
Regarding trade barriers, the real game changer is whether China gets to sign it’s courts into US like it did in Canada. That makes it much harder for US to touch Chinese assets since they have to go through Chinese court first. That’s probably best case. Worst case, status quo.
That’s not counting the part of negotiation we haven’t seen yet that could be more crazy on both sides.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Decoupling means little. The reason why US corporations outsource to China is because that's where they can make the most money for what they're selling. Any place else will cost more money. It's not as simple as who has the cheapest labor. The US has to be engaged with China because they need to be in control of China. Like I've said before, China just existing puts into question everything they were taught to believe. They have to take credit for Chinese successes and they can't do that when there's no relations. If they ended all relations, their only option in dealing with China would be from using the military. If they're afraid to take on North Korea, China ain't going to be easier. The US will have to spend money to protect and keep there allies in Asia. That's why many Asian countries want a return of the Cold War because then the US will more likely have to give money away like they did before. Money the US doesn't have to counter China. In this Cold War it's the US that will lose because Americans will be in the position of the Soviets where they will be countering everything China does and that will cost them money and even their own allies will take advantage. It's not the nightmare scenario for China. It's the nightmare scenario for the US to end relations. Everyone uses the China card in dealing with the US even allies. That's why they don't end relations when they act like they don't need anyone or they would've done it. The words of the anti-China hawks are empty threats designed to intimidate China into submission.
They want their rare earth elements cheap. They will never be able to process them in a developed economy. China sits at the sweet spot no other country has. Lower labor costs the Western world doesn't have and China has the technology developing countries cannot afford. Since most rare earth elements aren't actually rare, it's extracting them from the earth that drives up the costs meaning it's the money factor that prevents them from processing it themselves. It's irrelevant when you hear news that there's a non-Chinese rare earth deposit discovered somewhere. They ship it to China to be processed anyway. The only way they can get them cheap without China is to violate a whole lot of people's human rights. Can't do that in a developed economy with supposed labor laws they say they like in a country that drives up costs to make labor risk it. The only reason why you have all these poor countries gravitate to the US is because they want money. The US will have to find a country of poor people that will risk their health processing rare earths because of all the chemicals needed to separate and concentrate the elements they seek for little pay and protection.
Anything that cost US corporations more money means less margins thus less profits which in turn lowers stock value. Wall Street hates that. China will offer a cheaper alternative thus killing US competition. Any other country will have far fewer options than the US so they will go to China to buy cheaper and that will beat US competition and they go bankrupt. The only way the US will be able to stop it is by dictating to allies who they can trade with. Every other economy is dependent on the world to sell to and the US is going to tell them who they can sell to and buy from? Bye-bye free market and capitalist principles.
End relations with China and everything literally and figuratively will cost them more. In turn that will mean less money for developing technology. Less money to buy influence around the world. It's hurt China too but not as much because China's economy has already been isolated for decades because of Western policies hence why China has it's own economic ecology working which is why the anti-China hawks are in fear of the future. The only way they can stop it is by being the bad guy. Just look at the Meng case in Canada. Canada is only getting words of support but no action in helping free detained Canadians because everyone sees the hypocrisy and it's Canada's mess that it started in helping US's attempts at trying to stop foreign competition from beating theirs.
They want their rare earth elements cheap. They will never be able to process them in a developed economy. China sits at the sweet spot no other country has. Lower labor costs the Western world doesn't have and China has the technology developing countries cannot afford. Since most rare earth elements aren't actually rare, it's extracting them from the earth that drives up the costs meaning it's the money factor that prevents them from processing it themselves. It's irrelevant when you hear news that there's a non-Chinese rare earth deposit discovered somewhere. They ship it to China to be processed anyway. The only way they can get them cheap without China is to violate a whole lot of people's human rights. Can't do that in a developed economy with supposed labor laws they say they like in a country that drives up costs to make labor risk it. The only reason why you have all these poor countries gravitate to the US is because they want money. The US will have to find a country of poor people that will risk their health processing rare earths because of all the chemicals needed to separate and concentrate the elements they seek for little pay and protection.
Anything that cost US corporations more money means less margins thus less profits which in turn lowers stock value. Wall Street hates that. China will offer a cheaper alternative thus killing US competition. Any other country will have far fewer options than the US so they will go to China to buy cheaper and that will beat US competition and they go bankrupt. The only way the US will be able to stop it is by dictating to allies who they can trade with. Every other economy is dependent on the world to sell to and the US is going to tell them who they can sell to and buy from? Bye-bye free market and capitalist principles.
End relations with China and everything literally and figuratively will cost them more. In turn that will mean less money for developing technology. Less money to buy influence around the world. It's hurt China too but not as much because China's economy has already been isolated for decades because of Western policies hence why China has it's own economic ecology working which is why the anti-China hawks are in fear of the future. The only way they can stop it is by being the bad guy. Just look at the Meng case in Canada. Canada is only getting words of support but no action in helping free detained Canadians because everyone sees the hypocrisy and it's Canada's mess that it started in helping US's attempts at trying to stop foreign competition from beating theirs.
Last edited:
Jura The idiot
General
Biscuits
exactly what "military equipment" "America will have to sell" and to whom,
and exactly what "base" [presumably military] "America will have to" lease please?
That would be up for negotiation.
Point is, there is no more civilian demand for US goods. Trade war didn't help their already poor image, so you can expect demand to fall even further than pre-trade war levels. Only government purchases (aka leases, arms sales or FDI) can balance the trade surplus.
Jura The idiot
General
Jura The idiot
General
LOL Biscuits just humor me, which base would the Pentagon lease according to you, Guam, Gitmo, ... ?
That's painfully naive coming from a board director.
- Status