Trade War with China

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antiterror13

Brigadier
China needs to divest itself of US treasury bonds. Irrespective of Trump, the relationship is likely to deteriorate across all fronts in the medium-term and China does not want to be left exposed by holding bonds that the US government refuses to pay.

once the US govt refused to pay the T-Bills .. that would be the end of the Dollar ..... and it is not going to happen anyway
 

Lethe

Captain
once the US govt refused to pay the T-Bills .. that would be the end of the Dollar ..... and it is not going to happen anyway

No doubt Washington would seek to contain the broader fallout by circumscribing China as a "national security threat" and continuing to pay interest on all bonds not owned by Chinese entities. The negative consequences for Washington (i.e. higher interest rates on future bonds) would still likely outstrip the benefits, but one should not place too much faith in American rationality. And indeed there is a politically powerful contingent in the US that would welcome a crisis in America's ability to borrow as an excuse to dismantle non-military public spending.

All the trend lines in the relationship are negative and we can expect that to continue for the foreseeable future. It is far from a given that the relationship will deteriorate to the point of mutual economic exclusion, war, etc. but it is certainly possible, and China must insulate itself as best it can from any and all conceivable US actions. And part of that involves divesting itself of US treasury bonds.
 
now I read
China says ready to strike back at U.S. tariff moves, all options possible
Xinhua| 2018-04-07 00:16:12
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China is fully prepared and will not hesitate to strike back fiercely if the United States unveils the list of 100-billion-U.S. dollar Chinese products subject to additional tariff hikes, the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said.

"We are not taking any options off the table," Gao Feng, spokesperson with the MOC, said at a press briefing Friday.

The remarks came after the U.S. President Donald Trump threatened on Thursday to slap tariffs on 100 billion U.S. dollars of imports from China.

Calling the move "unreasonable" and "extremely wrong," Gao said the U.S. side has misjudged the situation and will only "shoot itself in its foot."

Gao also clarified that there have been no talks over economic and trade issues between Chinese and U.S. economic officials recently.

"We have noticed that many U.S. officials have hinted that the two sides are in talks, but that is not the real case," he said.

China responded firmly to the U.S. 301 Section investigation report and its proposed tariff list and gave stronger response to its proposal for additional tariffs. Under such circumstances, it's getting impossible for any bilateral talks over this issue, Gao added.

China is ready for further escalation by the U.S. side and has prepared detailed countermeasures, according to Gao.

"It is a battle between unilateralism and multilateralism, and between protectionism and free trade as well," Gao said.

If multilateralism and free trade are threatened, the economic globalization process will be disrupted, and the global economic recovery will be severely imperilled.

"This is detrimental to the vital interests of China and even more detrimental to the common interests of the world," he said.

"Facing such a major issue, we must fight resolutely," the spokesperson said.

"Even though we are not the ones to stir up trouble, we will resolutely strike back if trouble is brought to our doorstep. Chinese people always act earnestly and deliver what we promise," Gao said.

Earlier this week, the U.S. Trade Representative office proposed imposing an additional 25 percent tariff on 50 billion dollars worth of imports from China, which drew strong opposition from business groups.

Hours after the release of the proposed tariff list, China struck back with a tariff plan of equal scale, with a list of U.S. products including soybeans, automobiles, aircraft and chemical products.

The date of implementation will depend on when the U.S. government imposes the tariffs on Chinese products, according to the Ministry of Finance.
 
now I read
MOFCOM: No bilateral talks held recently over trade friction between China and the US
Updated 2018-04-06 23:44 GMT+8
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There have been no talks over economic and trade issues between Chinese and US economic officials recently, said Gao Feng, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, on Friday.

Gao’s remarks came after US President Donald Trump announced that the US is contemplating slapping extra tariffs on some 100 billion US dollars worth of Chinese items, ratcheting up trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

China is fully prepared and will not hesitate to strike back fiercely if the United States unveils the list of additional tariffs on 100 billion US dollars of Chinese products, said Gao.

Calling the move "unreasonable" and "extremely wrong," Gao said the US side has misjudged the situation and will only "shoot itself in its foot."

China is ready for further escalation by the US side and has prepared detailed countermeasures, he said.

"It is a battle between unilateralism and multilateralism, and between protectionism and free trade as well," Gao said.

If multilateralism and free trade are threatened, the economic globalization process will be disrupted, and the global economic recovery will be severely imperilled.

"This is detrimental to the vital interests of China and even more detrimental to the common interests of the world," he said.

"Facing such a major issue, we must fight resolutely," Gao said.

"Our way of doing things has always been the following: we will never seek any confrontation, but if confrontations come our way, we will resolutely fight back. We are serious about this issue and we will act on what we say," Gao said.

Earlier this week, the US released a list of over 1,300 Chinese items valued at 50 billion US dollars set to be targeted by additional tariffs, despite Beijing’s opposition and condemnation.

Hours later, China announced countermeasure against the US tariff plan, publishing a list of US products – including soybeans, automobiles, aircraft and chemical products – subject to extra tariffs.

To further worsen the friction, the US president said Thursday that he had asked his trade representative to consider 100 billion US dollars of additional tariffs on Chinese products. And China responded with the announcement of the readiness to fight "at any cost" and take "comprehensive countermeasures" by its Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The scale and speed of the intended punishments have escalated the trade conflict to one rarely seen in the world history.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
China needs to divest itself of US treasury bonds. Irrespective of Trump, the relationship is likely to deteriorate across all fronts in the medium-term and China does not want to be left exposed by holding bonds that the US government refuses to pay.
Indeed. I must also add, irrespective of the trade or the "refusal to pay" or anything.

The point of buying treasure bonds is like saving ones money in the bank. If the bank is gathering debt that its debt to capital ratio is too high, it is the time for anyone to withdraw their money. It is not "refusal to pay", it is simply "not able to pay".

And I think China has been and is doing the shifting already, faster and faster. The RMB crude oil future, the RMB settlement for trade, the inter-bank (Central) currency swept, the increase of gold reserve etc., all of them are groundworks ongoing. China will try to keep the actions low key, not to spook other holders of US treasure bonds, one always want to sell the stockes in volume before everybody else.
 
now I read
Commentary: U.S. tariffs must prepare to meet their doom
Xinhua| 2018-04-06 22:15:33
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After proposing a tariff hike of 25 percent on Chinese products worth 50 billion U.S. dollars, the U.S. administration has repeated its folly.

Messages from the office of the U.S. Trade Representative and U.S. President Donald Trump both refer to additional tariffs on Chinese products, possibly worth as much as 100 billion dollars.

In response to the first tariff proposal, China was forced to take countermeasures on Wednesday. On Friday, China quickly responded to the intention of addtitional tarrifs on more Chinese products.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said China will immediately fight back fiercely without hesitation if a new list of additional tariffs is announced.

What exactly are the Trump administration's problems? Supposed intellectual property (IP) theft, allegedly illicit technology transfer and the tumescent trade deficit?

It's not hard to see that these allegations are fanciful, biased and swimming against the tide of world opinion.

China's development has come as a result of China's hard work, not "intellectual property theft."

IP protection is a top priority for China. In 2017, China paid 28.6 billion U.S. dollars in royalties to foreign rights owners, up from 1.9 billion dollars in 2001 when the country joined the World Trade Organization (WTO).

IP is a tool for cooperation, not an excuse for punitive, unilateral bluster.

Instead of reflecting on its own failed export policies, the United States blames China for its trade deficit. Absurd, since the Unites States is actually the beneficiary of trade with China.

As of 2016, Chinese companies had invested more than 20 billion dollars in the midwest of the U.S. alone, creating over 45,000 jobs there. In that year, Chinese companies invested a record 45 billion U.S. dollars in the United States, tripling the amount that was poured into the U.S. economy in 2015. Some may even call this "foreign aid."

China's trade policies are market-oriented, with private companies and joint ventures playing a key role. Growth of foreign trade is a natural result of free market competition, once the backbone of the mighty U.S. economy.

Joint ventures benefit from China's trade policies, given a level of tariffs well below other emerging economies.

Despite Trump's bravado and bombast, China remains undaunted as it completely opens up its general manufacturing sector and expands access to many others.

Economic globalization is happening and will continue to happen, whether the United States likes it or not. Trade liberalization and an open economy are the right choice for China and for every other economy. The United States is more than welcome to plunge its head into the sand and pretend to know otherwise, but no one is convinced.

China hopes that common sense and long-term considerations will come to bear on Trump and his advisors.

China will fight "at any cost" and take "comprehensive countermeasures" if the United States continues along its unilateral, protectionist path, a spokesperson with the Ministry of Commerce said Friday.

China will resolutely continue to protect the WTO-rule based multilateral trading system.

U.S. protectionism is doomed.
LOL! "foreign aid"
 

PikeCowboy

Junior Member
No doubt Washington would seek to contain the broader fallout by circumscribing China as a "national security threat" and continuing to pay interest on all bonds not owned by Chinese entities. The negative consequences for Washington (i.e. higher interest rates on future bonds) would still likely outstrip the benefits, but one should not place too much faith in American rationality. And indeed there is a politically powerful contingent in the US that would welcome a crisis in America's ability to borrow as an excuse to dismantle non-military public spending.

All the trend lines in the relationship are negative and we can expect that to continue for the foreseeable future. It is far from a given that the relationship will deteriorate to the point of mutual economic exclusion, war, etc. but it is certainly possible, and China must insulate itself as best it can from any and all conceivable US actions. And part of that involves divesting itself of US treasury bonds.

bonds do not have the purchaser's names written on them, once sold the bonds are traded freely on the international market... you can't even be sure who has which serial numbered bonds... it would be extremely difficult to selectively renege on a subset of bonds.
 
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