Trade War with China

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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
I am thinking another possibility that Trump know what he is doing.

He made campaign promises to go tough. He had to deliver it. So here comes the tariff and "trade war easy to win". There can be two outcomes from here on.
  • China back down, Trump realizes his promise and win.
  • China hit back hard on Trump's electorate base which China just did, if those tough voters
    • seeing the damage coming and ask Trump to stop. Trump does what the voters want, kept his words. still win.
    • ignore the damage, Trump just go on, still keep his words, he would not be responsible to the damages, still win.
Trump is a smart politician although outwardly looks reckless.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I am thinking another possibility that Trump know what he is doing.

He made campaign promises to go tough. He had to deliver it. So here comes the tariff and "trade war easy to win". There can be two outcomes from here on.
  • China back down, Trump realizes his promise and win.
  • China hit back hard on Trump's electorate base which China just did, if those tough voters
    • seeing the damage coming and ask Trump to stop. Trump does what the voters want, kept his words. still win.
    • ignore the damage, Trump just go on, still keep his words, he would not be responsible to the damages, still win.
Trump is a smart politician although outwardly looks reckless.
I don't think so. It's not that kind of democracy where the voters can see the damage, ask Trump to stop, and he stops. The only way they will ask him to stop is to not elect him for a second term. It's also not the type of democracy where the people make the decisions and as long as the president follows, he has no responsibility. If he tanks the US economy from his trade war, he's not going to be remembered as the president that did what the people wanted and it didn't work out; he's going to be remembered as the idiot president who tanked the US economy.

Nevertheless, this is why I don't advocate for democracy: stupid, uneducated, shortsighted people will always outnumber and outvote the people smart enough to actually make a plan and carry it through, and no public voting means that strategies can be carried out in secrecy and sprung at the last moment, leaving opponents with little time to respond. Instead, with democracy, all your plans are laid out in public for stupid people to vote on and your opponent can probably come up with a counter strategy before you can even get elected.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don't think so. It's not that kind of democracy where the voters can see the damage, ask Trump to stop, and he stops. The only way they will ask him to stop is to not elect him for a second term. It's also not the type of democracy where the people make the decisions and as long as the president follows, he has no responsibility. If he tanks the US economy from his trade war, he's not going to be remembered as the president that did what the people wanted and it didn't work out; he's going to be remembered as the idiot president who tanked the US economy.

Nevertheless, this is why I don't advocate for democracy: stupid, uneducated, shortsighted people will always outnumber and outvote the people smart enough to actually make a plan and carry it through, and no public voting means that strategies can be carried out in secrecy and sprung at the last moment, leaving opponents with little time to respond. Instead, with democracy, all your plans are laid out in public for stupid people to vote on and your opponent can probably come up with a counter strategy before you can even get elected.
I am not saying that voters will force him to change after putting him in office. Voters can protest, lobby, but not removing him as long as he does not break the law.

What I was trying to say is that, if the voters do change their mind after seeing the possible damage, Trump would not be blamed for not delivering his campaign promises, it is voters change of mind. Trump can hold off the tariff without being blamed. That is based on the assumption that Trump is not personally committed to a trade war but only pushing for it because voters wanted. And I don't see why Trump would do something nobody really want and not benefiting himself.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I am not saying that voters will force him to change after putting him in office. Voters can protest, lobby, but not removing him as long as he does not break the law.

What I was trying to say is that, if the voters do change their mind after seeing the possible damage, Trump would not be blamed for not delivering his campaign promises, it is voters change of mind. Trump can hold off the tariff without being blamed. That is based on the assumption that Trump is not personally committed to a trade war but only pushing for it because voters wanted. And I don't see why Trump would do something nobody really want and not benefiting himself.
The bottom line is these tariffs are Trump's policy and the masses that support Trump are not exactly rational kind people who will pat him on the back and tell him it's ok because he did what everyone wanted so everyone will share responsibility. These are effing lynch mob quality people who will never take responsibility for anything just like they don't take responsibility for their own trade deficit. They will all say that Trump drew up the exact policies and they failed because he went about it wrong and then they'll call him a con-artist who went bankrupt several times, refuses to show his taxes and defrauded America by pretending like he knew how to be tough on trade. Then, there will be the second group of Trump supporters who will support him no matter what just because he's an angry white male like themselves and they will say they like the newer small economy because America needs a reset from fast-paced business and that's a Trump win too LOL
 

Quickie

Colonel
Btw, the expert is not afraid his job is on the line? He's from U.S.

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Interview: U.S. Section 301 investigation of China's IPR practices "preconceived": expert

Source: Xinhua 2018-04-06 01:35:10

NEW YORK, April 5 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. Section 301 investigation of China's intellectual property rights practices is "preconceived" as the United States "never did have a durable case to make in the first place" that China was in violation of its treaty-based commitments, said a U.S. expert.

With regard to the Section 301 investigation of its IPR practices, China has been accused of "all sorts of economic crimes," including "aggression, long-standing theft, coercive practices, etc.," said Sourabh Gupta, senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies in Washington, D.C., in an interview with Xinhua, "These accusations have been repeated so frequently over the past half-decade that they have even become received wisdom."

"But the critical question one must ask is this: Are any of China's IPR practices in violation of its international law commitments, specifically its commitments under the WTO's TRIPS (Trade-related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights) Agreement?" he said.

The scholar noted for as long as one can remember, U.S. Trade Representative's office has annually released a "Special 301" report on global IPR practices, "naming and shaming countries along the way" and China's practices have been "scanned in great depth and detail."

"If there were significant legal shortcomings, USTR would not have been shy to slap a WTO case against China's IPR policies and practices. It never did come around to doing so because of one important reason: the U.S. never did have a durable case to make in the first place that China was in violation of its treaty-based IPR commitments," said Gupta, adding in the last 12 years, U.S. has filed 22 cases against China at the WTO.

"That is until today, where a reckless U.S. Administration with a preconceived mindset about trading with China is determined to force its thoroughly rash and unwise political objectives down the throat of the multilateral trading system," he said.

The United States has "quietly let it be known" at the WTO's Dispute Settlement Body meeting on March 27th that most of China's practices involving technology or intellectual property transfer "do not implicate any specific WTO obligation," Gupta noted.

This means, he said, aside from two small technical aspects (ability of foreign patent holders to enforce patent rights after a technology transfer contract ends; certain mandatory adverse contract terms that seem to discriminate against foreign right-holders), "almost all of China's IPR related policies and practices are perfectly legal."

"Of course, the U.S. doesn't present it that way. Rather the U.S. says that China's IPR policies overall are deeply trade-distorting policies that undermine fairness and balance in the international trading system," Gupta said.

"Maybe so or Maybe not. But critically, the U.S. can barely come around to finding any of these policies to be a direct violation of China's WTO TRIPS commitments. And as I mentioned, China is legally bound to adhere to nothing beyond its express international legal commitments in this area," he said.

"The U.S. is now planning to impose 25 percent tariffs on 50 billion U.S. dollars of Chinese exports on the basis of its allegedly abusive IPR practices, except that the U.S. cannot show that aside from a few narrow regulations, any of these practices are illegal per se.," he said.

"And the U.S. itself has voluntarily noted that almost all these policies and practices are, from a legal standpoint, not a violation of China's TRIPS obligations. And so we may soon be on the verge of the most significant trade war since the 1930s even though practically no illegality has been committed by the supposedly offending party. This is an insult to basic norms of law and justice!" Gupta said.

In both his 2017 and 2018 Trade Policy Agenda reports, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has emphasized that the United States is bound by its treaty rights and obligation to which it has signed up at the WTO, and "to no more than that," Gupta said, Additional rights or obligations cannot be added to these existing rights and obligations and "any such system must not force Americans to live under new obligations to which the United States and its elected officials never agreed."

"Indeed so. And it is high time that he reciprocates this same standard when evaluating China IPR policies and practices," he said. "China's IPR policies and practices too cannot be bound to any additional rights or obligations beyond the TRIPS agreement to which it committed itself at the time of its WTO accession in 2001. And in America's own view, China continues to remain by-and-large in compliance with its TRIPS commitments."
 
now I read
Trump threatens additional 100-bln-USD China tariffs
Xinhua| 2018-04-06 10:52:22
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U.S. President Donald Trump Thursday said he has asked the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to consider slapping 100 billion U.S. dollars of additional tariffs on China, ratcheting up trade tensions and plunging economic growth into uncertainty.

"In light of China's unfair retaliation, I have instructed the USTR to consider whether $100 billion of additional tariffs would be appropriate under section 301 and, if so, to identify the products upon which to impose such tariffs," he said in a statement issued by the White House.

Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 gives the U.S. Government rule-making authority, enabling it to enforce trade agreements and resolve trade disputes.

Thursday's gesture is the latest protectionist trade action threat against China. Earlier this week, the USTR proposed to impose an additional 25 percent tariff on 50 billion dollars of imports from China, which has been strongly opposed by various business groups.

China on Wednesday unveiled a list of products worth of 50 billion dollars imported from the United States that will be subject to higher tariffs.

Any additional tariffs proposed will be subject to a public comment process like in the case of the proposed tariffs announced on April 3, a USTR statement on Thursday said.

"No tariffs will go into effect until the respective process is complete," the USTR said.

Trump also said that the United States is still ready to have discussions with China.

Despite Washington's continuous protectionist moves, White House officials in recent days have been trying to tamp down any potential escalation of trade tensions with China.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told local media on Thursday that he expected the United States and China to work out their trade differences over time and that trade barriers are likely to come down on both sides.

U.S. business groups have warned the Trump administration not to move forward with its tariff plan on Chinese imports as it would raise costs for American consumers and companies as well as negatively affect the financial markets.

"A 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans into China will have a devastating effect on every soybean farmer in America," John Heisdorffer, president of the American Soybean Association, said in a statement on Wednesday.

"But there is still time to reverse this damage, and the administration can still deliver for farmers by withdrawing the tariffs that caused this retaliation," he added.

Chinese Ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai on Wednesday urged Washington to abandon its "unilateral and protectionist practices" and terminate the Section 301 investigation as early as possible.
 
now noticed the tweet
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Chinese Ministry of Commerce in response to
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’s possible $100 billion in additional tariffs: If the US insists on unilateralism,
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will fight until the end and willing to pay any price

DaE0YqLV4AAWH3I.jpg
 

Lethe

Captain
China needs to divest itself of US treasury bonds. Irrespective of Trump, the relationship is likely to deteriorate across all fronts in the medium-term and China does not want to be left exposed by holding bonds that the US government refuses to pay.
 
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