Trade War with China

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plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Global warming is just the name, a far better description would be climate change.

When you drastically change the base composition of the atmosphere over a short period of time, you distrupt and change the natural equilibrium and cycles formed over hundreds of thousands of years, which in turn can fundamentally alter the distribution of the most fundamental element all life depend on - water.

The overwhelming majority of human cities and other population and industrial centres are all located based on historical water distribution locations. Either for consumption or transportation, often both.

Many cities are facing increasingly acute water shortages as climate change start to divert the water sources they need for survival elsewhere.

On the flip side, other areas are experiencing increased flooding as they get far more water resources then they are used to.

Picking outlier extreme examples doesn’t prove a thing, one only has to look at the statistical trends or even just experience the world with your own eyes to see what is happening.

This BBC article have some very good charts, with the first one being particularly convincing.

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A

Anlsvrthng

Captain
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Financial markets have been struggling lately. Even red-hot
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have been plummeting. Is this just another scare, like the many we have had since 2008? That’s what the consensus seems to be. The reality is quite different. This is a structural bear market that could last for years. Not just stocks, but bonds, credit and property are vulnerable. This bear market will reverse the trends that investors have been used to for more than two decades.

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The current market turmoil is a different animal. It undermines the pillar that sustains leveraged speculation – the
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between the US and China which states, “I buy your goods, you buy my debt”. China continued the invest-and-export tradition of other East Asian economies. The overinvestment in the East was sustainable only because of overconsumption in the US. Through forced savings, the East financed its overinvestment at home and overconsumption in the US by buying American debt.
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The Fed has made two fatal mistakes. It has been looking at
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to interest rates and evaluating asset valuations against bond yields. Both benchmarks have been heavily influenced, if not determined, by East Asian economies. The Fed has basically accommodated the investment-and-export model of the East. The cumulative imbalances are not only reflected on the financial balance sheet. The
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in the US is a consequence of how the Fed has managed the economy.

The
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is a political backlash against this imbalanced growth model globally. Wages in the US have
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while education and health care costs have skyrocketed. Trump’s “terrific” economy is no different. When real wages are stagnant at a cycle peak, labour will be harder hit on the way down. The political fuel for the conflict will increase. The continuing trade war will undermine “I buy your goods” and, hence, derail “you buy my debt”. The bond market will slide into a bear market as a consequence.
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Bumpy ride everywhere : )
 
G

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Guess what happens when you lower corporate interest rates? Companies stop investing and start distributing dividends to their shareholders (namely the people in the board of the company). Meanwhile because of the staggering gap in personal income tax rates it means a lot of people won't personally invest either. Those who are already close to being underwater are pulled down as the economy cools down and people are laid off. Those who already have enough to sustain themselves have little motivation to invest either. Because their taxes were already cut so they can pocket their profits. The others are either paying low taxes or no tax at all probably even receiving aid (like some Amazon "fulfillment center" or Walmart workers). The result is a shrinking middle class and going in the route to becoming a Latin America like economy. Take Brazil. You have a slum right next door to a walled community. The "cleaning lady" has to use the backway elevator in order not to annoy the guests entering from the front. Rich people can't walk on the street and have to travel everywhere by armored car with bullet proof glass. The police don't get paid, so they call in the army. But the army won't go because the soldier's wives are blocking the military base's gates protesting that their husbands haven't been paid for months either. A complete cockup.

If it wasn't for the petrodollar you would likely be seeing this in the USA too.
 
Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Now contrary to western press China does not succumbed to threat and bluster via eldermari
Politics
Defiant Xi Jinping Says No One Can Dictate Reforms to China
Bloomberg News
December 17, 2018, 9:59 PM ESTUpdated on December 18, 2018, 12:15 AM EST
    • President lays out continuation of economic policy agenda
    • Marks 40th anniversary of reform era in Beijing address
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China’s Xi discusses the challenges the economy faces and the government’s policies.
President Xi Jinping said China would stick to its policy agenda, despite pressure from the U.S. and others to allow more competition in its economic system and reduce support for state industry.

Xi told an audience of party officials, military leaders and entrepreneurs in a speech Tuesday that “no one is in the position to dictate to the Chinese people what should and should not be done.” The 80-minute address in Beijing was held to mark the 40th anniversary of the Reform and Opening Up campaign that unleashed the country’s economic boom under then leader Deng Xiaoping.

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Xi Jinping on Dec. 18.

Photographer: Wang Zhao/AFP via Getty Images
Leaders are expected to start their annual economic policy-meeting Wednesday at which more detailed plans may be unveiled. The gathering lays down priorities for economic policy for the coming year and last year laid out a three-year approach to winning three “critical battles.”

“We will resolutely fight an uphill battle to prevent and defuse major risks, lift people out of poverty, and prevent and control pollution,” Xi said. “China will promote trade convenience and continue to play the role of a responsible major nation.”

— With assistance by Peter Martin, Kevin Hamlin, Dandan Li, Yinan Zhao, and James Mayger
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
now noticed the tweet
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said on Tuesday that it would spend $2 billion over the next 5 years on
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by recruiting more people and upgrading laboratories, as the major Chinese tech company seeks to ease concerns about its telecom gear.

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W

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
tidalwave said:
I know people are going to bring up.Qualcomm.
Well Qualcomm has a division of process engineers that practically live inside TSMC, they work with TSMC engineers to fine tune the process to best fit to Qualcomm especially the ones with analog functions. Generic TSMC process may not be optimal therefore adjustment are needed. Qualcomm able to do that because their process engineers have access to TSMC facilities.

No, mainland companies like Huawei , not allowed into TSMC facilities!
So, what they end up with is generic vanilla recipe for digital CPU chip, like Kirin. As long as you doing only CPU you are fine with TSMC.

But things with analog functions such Silicon photonics for fiber optic which both ZTE and Huawei don't have , that one you really need you own fab.very specialized product require special process and TSMC do not provide those.



People are reading too much into China AI propaganda.

It's a luxury one does NOT need to have. Without AI, it won't be optimal but business as usual.

But without critical parts, ZTE and Jinhua will immediately die!!

I advise people to take it easy on AI opium, it's not healthy
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You see your problem is that you say that China should neglect AI and focus on high tech conventional semiconductor chips and the equipment to make them, where it lags considerably. Others in the argument are saying that China should spend a lot of resources on both and that China's heavy research and development of applied AI does not mean that it is neglecting conventional semiconductors. China is doing and can afford to do both.
 
W

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
tidalwave said:
China central overnment too scared to go after US companies afraid Trump would raise tariff for the remaining goods.

Eight now, China government seriously indulging in AI opium, fooling itself into believing it's on path to self sufficiency.

China are in current shithole, cause their advisors gave bad advices and therefore lousy policy.

Had they got the right policy 20 years ago, China already be self sufficient by now. Their tech would not leading edge but l100% self sufficient. There would not be case of ZTE , Jinhua, etc.
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While China did not show the sense of urgency that it should have, China has not been completely idle, and even before the ZTE ban Chinese companies have been making progress in semiconductors and semiconductor equipment making. China's complacency on the issue is that it believed that given that it is the world's largest market for semiconductors that extensive restrictions and bans would not be placed on it by foreign governments because it would hurt companies from foreign countries that export to China. But the ZTE ban and the Trade War have been a very rude awakening to China that foreign countries are not so market rational and that they have been greatly triggered by the Made in China 2025 Policy and because of it China truly needs to very greatly and predominantly ensure that its supply chains for high tech goods are based domestically.

I am sure that in official circles there will presently be a lot of finger pointing at free market liberals within China for undermining or at least not having supported determined efforts for earlier development of the semiconductor industry.

But hope is not lost. There are Chinese companies like AMEC, Tsinghua Unigroup, Yangtze Memory, and SMIC that are at least moderately advanced in the area of semiconductor manufacturing and Huawei has complete design knowhow for the advanced Kirin chips that it contracts TSCM to make for it.

Have you heard of the recent breakthrough reported this November by the Chinese Academy of Sciences? They have been able to make equipment that uses EUV lithography technology to make chips to 22 nm specs and additionally, they can bring the specs down to 10 nm using double exposure techniques.

It has not been mass marketed yet, but it can, should, and most likely eventually will be.

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