Trade War with China

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siegecrossbow

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i heard the CFO hold canadian/US passport or maybe green card? not sure this is true or not. I know many rich 2nd gen got US/Canada passport or green card.

Canadian/US passport is a rumor. She did have Canadian green card at one point but it expired in 2009.

*Updates: All passports held by Huawei CFO are Chinese passports. This is confirmed by American Investigators.

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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Another data point showing exhausted Chinese internal demand.

Current trade surplus is around the 3% of GDP, and growing.
Means there is insufficient internal demand, and China has to dump the excess stock onto the world.

You can interpret is glass half empty or half full. There will always ebb and flow in internal demand but consumption part of the GDP seem to held up The overseas demand keep rising due to attractiveness of Chinese export It is not easy to replace Chinese export. The US share of export keep going down now it is only 13% of total export

According to official figures, Chinese foreign trade in the first 11 months of the year reached about 4056 billion USD, up 11.1%. The trade surplus, 285 billion USD, is down 21.1%. The exchange with the United States accounts for 13.7% of China's foreign trade.

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Red Moon

Junior Member
I'm going to disagree with most people here, as I believe the US and China have indeed reached some sort of agreement on trade beyond a mere truce. This would explain the continued "optimism" on both sides, in spite of the outrageous incident over Huawei's CFO, and it would explain the seemingly unfazed attitude of the Chinese government in proceeding with consultations on the trade frictions in spite of the arrest.

David Goldman at Asia Times has been speculating that the deal involved merely a change of language and some other largely cosmetic stuff. He points to the rapidly deteriorating economic situation as the reason behind Trump's change of heart. Yet I don't believe this. Regardless of what Trump would like to do to avoid blame, I don't think it is possible for him to walk back his trade war so easily at this point. He is too boxed in by Pence, by his advisors, by the wide political base for his trade war among politicians in both parties, by Mueller, and by last but not least, the CIA. For this reason, a real concession would be necessary, although it would have to be one that can be managed by China and won't cause harm to the overall objectives of the CPC on the economic front.

In fact, I'm seeing the outlines of a rather ugly deal which involves Huawei and it's share of the global telecom networking market, especially the the 5G area. In the article that follows, Huawei is seen to "reassure" its suppliers (and the stock market) that the current noise in the "Five Eyes" countries will not affect them. Then it oddly hints that it will content itself with the Chinese market, even though this is billed as a "temporary" phenomenon. Why would the effect be so drastic, if it's already blocked in the US, Australia and perhaps others in the anglo-saxon block anyway?

Such a deal, will not be admitted unless Trump blurts it out, but it makes some sense for both sides. For China, it allows it to concentrate on economic and technology upgrading without the disruptions emanating from the trade war. Losing part of Huawei's telecom networking market share is a sacrifice, but it has other businesses, it still has its technology and efficiency, and can probably win market share back when the time comes. Meanwhile, loss in future business can be compensated by accelerating 5G rollout in China (this is hinted below as well), and maybe also screwing Ericsson and Nokia-Siemens domestically.

For the US, the deal improves it's position in the 5G contest. And since the "Five Eyes" countries appear to be coordinating on this issue, I have to believe that "security" and spying have something to do with it. Indeed, while claiming and perhaps believing that they are combating Chinese espionage, they aim to protect and enhance their own surveillance empire. More on this later.

There is a precedent for this sort of market share limiting agreement. In the 80's, before the Plaza Accord, the US govt imposed a limit of about 23% of the US market for Japanese auto imports. All hell would break loose whenever this share went up slightly, and the Japanese repeatedly agreed to bring it back down. Of course, the nature of what I believe to be the proposed deal is rather different from the earlier case, as it involves strategic and geopolitical matters, but the nature of the "trade" friction is also different in the same way.

I cannot find a Fox News video I saw yesterday, but a very arrogant commentator who was being interviewed seemed to be arguing in a similar vein, saying roughly that it's OK for Huawei to sell equipment in China, but that they shouldn't be allowed to "spy" on other countries.

The article follows

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Huawei's suppliers unharmed by CFO's arrest, analyst says
The "unreasonable" treatment of Huawei Technologies Co by the United States won't harm the company's partnerships with suppliers, as a robust domestic market and its technological competitiveness will help it overcome challenges, an industry analyst said on Friday.

Wang Yanhui, secretary-general of the Mobile China Alliance, said US interference with the global telecom market is giving Huawei a hard time overseas, but the temporary difficulty, if properly handled, won't harm the company's long-term business.

"China has a huge domestic 5G market and its efforts to accelerate construction of a nationwide network will bring opportunities to Huawei," Wang said.

On Thursday night, China said that it had officially allocated certain radio frequency spectra to the country's big three telecom carriers for the construction of a nationwide 5G network, a key step to quicken the rollout of the superfast technology.

The move sent shares of Huawei's Chinese suppliers climbing on Friday. Tongyu Communication, for instance, surged more than 5 percent in Shenzhen. An index tracking 5G-related Chinese companies also rose by 1.75 percent at the close of trading on Friday, according to financial information provider Wind Info.

The news came after Canadian police arrested Huawei's chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, at the request of the US, on Dec 1. The two countries did not specify the reason for the detention.

On Friday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said Meng is a Chinese citizen, in response to foreign media questions about her identity.

Geng also called for more effort by Japan to create a level playing field for Chinese companies, and encouraged the country not to damage mutual trust and friendship when asked about media reports that Japan will ban government purchases of products made by Huawei and another Chinese company, ZTE.

On Thursday night, Huawei said in a letter to its global suppliers that the US had made some accusations against the company recently, and Huawei has clarified many times that it strictly complies with all applicable laws and regulations in its global business operations.

"It is unreasonable of the US government to use these sorts of approaches to exert pressure on a business entity. They are against the spirit of a free economy and fair competition. Nevertheless, regardless of how unreasonable their approach becomes, the partnerships we have with our global suppliers will stay unchanged," Huawei said.

The Shenzhen-based company is the world's second-largest smartphone vendor and a leading maker of telecom equipment. It has more than 2,000 component and service suppliers, according to a report by Guosen Securities.

In November, Huawei unveiled a list of its 92 core suppliers for the first time, 33 of which are from the US, 11 from Japan and four from Germany. Two Swiss companies and two South Korean companies are also among the suppliers.

China has a huge domestic 5G market and its efforts to accelerate construction of a nationwide network will bring opportunities to Huawei."
 
very recently
Huawei arrest: China demands Canada free Meng Wanzhou
  • 2 hours ago
China has demanded that Canada release the arrested Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou or face consequences.

Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng had summoned the Canadian ambassador and lodged a "strong protest", a statement said.

The ministry described Ms Meng's arrest as "extremely nasty".

Ms Meng, Huawei's chief financial officer and daughter of the firm's founder, is accused of breaking US sanctions on Iran.

She was held in Vancouver last Saturday and faces extradition to the US, where she could be jailed for up to 30 years if found guilty.

China insists that she has not violated any laws.

On Friday Ms Meng appeared before a Canadian court, which adjourned a decision on whether or not to allow bail until Monday.

What has China said?
Ms Meng's arrest while she was changing planes in Vancouver last Saturday was a serious breach of her rights, Reuters quoted the foreign ministry as saying.

It "ignored the law" and was "unreasonable", it said.

"China strongly urges the Canadian side to immediately release the detained person... otherwise Canada must accept full responsibility for the serious consequences caused," the statement added.

What happened during Friday's court appearance?
The Supreme Court of British Columbia was told that Ms Meng had used a Huawei subsidiary called Skycom to evade sanctions on Iran between 2009 and 2014.

The court was told that she had publicly misrepresented Skycom as being a separate company.

A Canadian government lawyer said Ms Meng was accused of "conspiracy to defraud multiple financial institutions".

He said she had denied to US bankers any direct connections between Huawei and SkyCom, when in fact "SkyCom is Huawei".

The lawyer said Ms Meng could be a flight risk and thus should be denied bail.

Why was the arrest significant?
The arrest has put further strain on US-China relations. The two countries have been locked in trade disputes, although
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on Saturday - before news of the arrest came to light on Wednesday.

Huawei is one of the largest telecommunications equipment and services providers in the world, recently passing Apple to become the second-biggest smartphone maker after Samsung.

Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Friday that China had been assured that due process was being followed and Ms Meng would have consular access while her case was before the courts.

Ms Freeland reiterated Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's claim that Ms Meng's arrest had "no political involvement".

...
... etc. (
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), I'll be checking other servers now
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
David Goldman at Asia Times has been speculating that the deal involved merely a change of language and some other largely cosmetic stuff. He points to the rapidly deteriorating economic situation as the reason behind Trump's change of heart. Yet I don't believe this. Regardless of what Trump would like to do to avoid blame, I don't think it is possible for him to walk back his trade war so easily at this point. He is too boxed in by Pence, by his advisors, by the wide political base for his trade war among politicians in both parties, by Mueller, and by last but not least, the CIA. For this reason, a real concession would be necessary, although it would have to be one that can be managed by China and won't cause harm to the overall objectives of the CPC on the economic front.
Well that's the whole point of the language change, it's to give those guys something to chew on and give the US a ladder to climb down from the tree it's stuck in. Trump can't say he'll have to give up on the structural changes/ IP, etc... because he can't get any concessions because he'll get tarred, feathered, and hung by the angry mob that elected him but what's a concession? China has outlined (what was it, 26?) new punishments for those who infringe on IP, etc... I'm sure they will be VERY selectively implemented to put on a show. This can be touted by Trump as the concession he's looking for; after all, what else can you get other than a country making laws that it claims it will enforce at its own discrepancy? They're not going to give the FBI open reign to conduct investigations and arrest people in China LOL

The US is desperate to get this "deal." The stock market plummeted this week; DOW just lost 1,000 points and that's INCLUDING the initial rise in optimism on Monday (+300) AND the FED walking back an interest hike (+700). Without those, it's a 2,000 point drop. People are talking about death cross patterns, 10-year notes crossing 2-year notes like in 2008, and things like that that point to impending recession because the stock market is the lifeblood of the US economy while it's more of a pet side-project to China. As things are, if anybody says, "stock market" in the White house, they can hear Trump hiss like a vampire LOL. They need good news bad LOL.
 
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B.I.B.

Captain
So many Chinese elites buying real estate in the West, and sending their kids there. This is a wake up call.
No matter what, there will always be some who view for various reasons that 'the grass is greener on the other side'.

P.S. Remember what I topld ypo0u a few m0nths ago that my friends thought that the U.S. was intent on stopping Chinese high tech development?
 
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