Trade War with China

AndrewS · Sep 13, 2018

@Anlsvrthng

The US National Science Foundation estimates that Chinese R&D spending will be greater than the USA in the year 2019.
Also note that Chinese R&D spending is still in the high growth stage.
And that the vast majority of R&D spending is conducted by private companies, like the rest of the world (the notable big exception being India)
Plus China already represents the world's largest and most competitive marketplace for most categories of goods and services.

All these statements are backed up by the available data.

So in the medium-long term, China should be able to develop and sustain hi-tech companies in every industry.

If you can break this chain of logic, I'm happy to revise my views.

Jura The idiot · Sep 13, 2018

now I read
Tariff hikes won't address U.S. trade deficit: spokesperson
Xinhua| 2018-09-13 23:22:55
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The United States' unilateral measure of imposing additional tariffs won't solve its trade deficit issue, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said Thursday.

The widening or narrowing of the trade surplus or deficit is decided by the market, MOC spokesperson Gao Feng said at a press conference in response to a question on China's widened trade surplus with the United States.

China's customs data showed that the country's trade surplus with the United States widened by 7.7 percent to 1.24 trillion yuan (about 181 billion U.S. dollars) in the first eight months, with China's exports to the United States rising 6.5 percent.

Gao said the fast expansion of exports was mainly due to factors such as increased demand in the U.S. domestic market. It could also be partly due to front-loading by Chinese exporters who are worried about the U.S. tariff policy, Gao said.

Gao said that the U.S. trade deficit is related to its low savings rate, the status of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency and the country's control on exports to China.

The U.S. side should recognize that the unilateral measure of imposing tariffs cannot solve the problem, Gao said, adding that China and the United States should take pragmatic measures and work together to promote the healthy and stable development of bilateral trade.

tidalwave · Sep 13, 2018

El Erian, an ethnic Egptian economist in US says Trump has 75% winning the trade war,

Joining the likes of Gordon Chang, Peter Navarro, Harry kazianis, non Anglo folks in using extreme antiChina stance to promote themseleves, maybe that's all they got in terms of chance to advance themselves in front US audiences.

AssassinsMace · Sep 13, 2018

Not surprising. I've seen plenty of non-Western origin economists be pro-Trump because they want to suck up to the US. Fareed Zakaria supports Trump in the trade war against China. Is it because of thoughtful analysis. No. He's Indian and he uses his show to give attention to India when no one else will. Right now he's trying to give so-called India's Silicon Valley attention. China according to Western experts has the only peer rival to Silicon Valley. Just remember leading American economist Nouriel Roubini who said China was heading to a collapse because when he took the maglev train to Hangzhou from Shanghai, he was the only one on board. Yeah I'm sure he was the only one on board since there's no maglev train route between Shanghai and Hangzhou.

Anlsvrthng · Sep 14, 2018

Jura said:
since I looked at it, I post (actually had to make a screenshot or just the map, not the map with numbers, would show through wiki):

Nice one : )

few points:
- in USA/Germany ect. there is a one to two difference between the most advanced / backward areas in the country.
-The most advanced areas of China is behind the usa by 35-50% on PPP basis.

Based on a by back to envelope calculation it is no more than 12% that is left for periphery advancement.

It is 1.2% GDP growth by year over ten years.
If the USA start to pay back its debt to China then the GDP decrease due to that will be around 8%.

Anlsvrthng · Sep 14, 2018

manqiangrexue said:
Someone else could easily say that central planning is much more efficient in China than US/EU style because in China, teams work together to solve different steps of a problem while in the West, they waste resources competing over each other for each step, causing the process to be much slower, more expensive and more tedious. And the facts support this, because technological growth in the West is much slower than it is in China, for many many reasons not at all limited to the feel-good "They copied us" excuse that Westerners like to default to.

Every company in the world, when faced with a large project, separates its employees into teams and assigns then different parts of the project to be pieced together at completion, which is like China's central planning on a much smaller scale. No company uses the Western model that you tout, by telling all of its employees that they should all work independently and the first guy who completes the project by himself gets all of the pay for everyone. Chinese model is much superior to Western one, and only the Chinese government has the control needed to implement it.

The Westerners that are more intelligent than yourself realize China's efficiency, which is why they fear the Made-in-China-2025 government initiative and want China to stop it rather than goad China to waste resources by furthering it's "inefficient" central planning. It is only people like you who desperately seek comfort in self-praises of "efficiency" as you see other people surpass you.
.

It is easy to make conform and team working team, that doing everything that you tell.
All that it needs a few gun, and problem solved.

But that team will be nothing else just an extension of a central person, restricted to the limits represented by the "leader".

The really hard bit if you want to organise an efficient team is how to NOT to give orders and try to lead the team.

The performance of the team depending on the capability of the members, not the capability of the "leader".

And anyway, one of the challenge is to found the right person to a position, with the right motivation.

A good , well motivated person can be ten times more productive than an average one : )

manqiangrexue said:
First of all, your premise is broken; when will there be "no more information/skill/technology flow from USA/Europe to China?" When will the global economy close to such a state? And secondly, it is obvious by China advances in many areas that has already surpassed the West (super-computing, quantum physics, etc...) that China would continue to do just fine.

The end of the trade war is the closing of all of trade/information routes.

At the moment China depending on the USA/European information flow, to know what to make, and how many : )

Without that the Chinese has to found out what to do : )

manqiangrexue · Sep 14, 2018

Anlsvrthng said:
It is easy to make conform and team working team, that doing everything that you tell. All that it needs a few gun, and problem solved.
But that team will be nothing else just an extension of a central person, restricted to the limits represented by the "leader". The really hard bit if you want to organise an efficient team is how to NOT to give orders and try to lead the team. The performance of the team depending on the capability of the members, not the capability of the "leader".

That is completely in your imagination and has nothing to do with China's model, nor are your assumptions true that the capability of the leader is unimportant. China's current model grows, innovates, and progresses faster than any other nation, especially Western nation. That's the evidence that it works better. You can throw endless ideologies and stories about guns and extension but the real world has spoken. Only a deluded person, distraught with the state of reality argues against truth with his imagination.

Anlsvrthng said:
And anyway, one of the challenge is to found the right person to a position, with the right motivation. A good , well motivated person can be ten times more productive than an average one : )

And China is excellent at doing those things, hence its fast progress.

Anlsvrthng said:
The end of the trade war is the closing of all of trade/information routes. At the moment China depending on the USA/European information flow, to know what to make, and how many : ) Without that the Chinese has to found out what to do : )

First of all, the trade war has only begun; to conclude how it will end is pure fantasy. (And even with hostilities preventing trade, there are still many creative ways to gain information from one another.) Of course, you can see from recent development, China is well-prepared and has no fear of this conclusion. It is the US that continuously asks China to return to negotiations. If China is dependent, then China should be the one to ask, but it is not. Seems China has already figured out what to do and is confident it will have no problem, just as in the fields where it already has no qualified peer to "copy" from.

Anlsvrthng · Sep 15, 2018

manqiangrexue said:
First of all, the trade war has only begun; to conclude how it will end is pure fantasy. (And even with hostilities preventing trade, there are still many creative ways to gain information from one another.) Of course, you can see from recent development, China is well-prepared and has no fear of this conclusion. It is the US that continuously asks China to return to negotiations. If China is dependent, then China should be the one to ask, but it is not. Seems China has already figured out what to do and is confident it will have no problem, just as in the fields where it already has no qualified peer to "copy" from.

Agree, there are possible scenarios with different probabilities.

However the final tough is the same : the current course of events is unsustainable, so something has to change.

And there is a reason why 4% of the Chinese population willing to work for the USA for free ( in the form of trade surplus).

It can be due to :
1. Charity for the US billionaires
2. To learn technology ,management ways and create working corporations
3. To steal money out from China mainland
4.Because the USA elite has abnormally high control above the Chinese politics and internal economy
5. Any other idea?

USA works actively to restricting the technology transfer from USA to China.
Considering that in many cases it is nothing else just restrictions about start-up participation it bring up real questions about the Chinese economy capability to make real technology improvements.

What It Means for U.S. Startups If Trump Clamps Down on Chinese Investment

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Anlsvrthng · Sep 15, 2018

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China to ask Wall Street for ideas on improving U.S. ties

...
The meeting will be chaired by Zhou Xiaochuan, former governor of the People’s Bank of China, and John Thornton, ex-president of Goldman Sachs.

Attendees will also meet with Chinese vice-president Wang Qishan on Monday morning after the full-day Sunday session, according to an invitation reviewed by Reuters.

Zhou and Thornton have asked participants to give one or two specific ideas on how to further open up China’s financial sector as well as suggest ways to “forge normal U.S.-China relations for the benefit of our two countries and the world,” according to the people and a meeting agenda seen by Reuters.

The people, who have knowledge of the meeting, declined to be named as the roundtable details were not public.
...

manqiangrexue · Sep 15, 2018

Anlsvrthng said:
And there is a reason why 4% of the Chinese population willing to work for the USA for free ( in the form of trade surplus).

Need a source for 4%; I've never heard anyone say that 4% of Chinese people work for free for USA before. Quite frankly if it were true, it makes the current American complaints of trade surplus seem mentally challenged. By "work for free," did you mean "export industry?"

Anlsvrthng said:
It can be due to :
1. Charity for the US billionaires
2. To learn technology ,management ways and create working corporations
3. To steal money out from China mainland
4.Because the USA elite has abnormally high control above the Chinese politics and internal economy

1. Retarded. 2. Obviously yes. 3. I don't think you understand how trade surplus works; it brings American money into China, not the other way around. 4. Retarded.

Anlsvrthng said:
5. Any other idea?

Yeah, how about earning money? How did you manage to miss that? Because you think getting paid by Americans means working for free?

Anlsvrthng said:
USA works actively to restricting the technology transfer from USA to China.
Considering that in many cases it is nothing else just restrictions about start-up participation it bring up real questions about the Chinese economy capability to make real technology improvements.

That has no logic at all. If US restrictions are ineffective, that reflects the inability of American lawmakers to protect their information, not at all on the ability of others to innovate. China has already directly proven in many areas its ability to innovate in technology; attempting to ignore this and use convoluted and broken logic to indirectly draw different a different conclusion is just illusory denial.

Trade War with China

AndrewS

Brigadier

Jura The idiot

General

tidalwave

Senior Member

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General

Anlsvrthng

Captain

Anlsvrthng

Captain

manqiangrexue

Brigadier

Anlsvrthng

Captain

Anlsvrthng

Captain

manqiangrexue

Brigadier