The War in the Ukraine

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tabu

Junior Member
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
On paper, Russia can theoretically can conquer Ukraine according to the ORBAT and manpower superiority.

In reality, Russia is deeply limited by political rules of engagement. It's political expediency to launch of a war of limited scope/objectives and refrain (until now) hitting infrastructure/civilian targets. When you are fighting with one-arm tied behind your back...you get limited results like this.


Yes NATO aid will continue, but @plawolf's point is the magnitude of aid will be attenuated or reduced commensurate with the intensity of war, to the extent that Ukraine major combat offensive operation is untenable, ergo a stalemate where Ukraine is unable to mount an offense, and Russia signalling the maximum extent of territorial expansion.

Yes, a unilateral declared end is one-sided, and yes, Ukraine can continue their offensive, but at best it would a stalemate along the Donestk-Zapo-Kherson-Luhansk boundary with no significant movement with reduced NATO support. This would be a bet on Europe reducing it's aid to Ukraine due to economics, inflation, and energy pressures, and end of S.M.O. impetus to give a blank check. It would be a risk-benefit analysis by Europe on giving an extra $66B per year forever just to grab Donbass, or just force Ukraine to negotiate a settlement.

Personally, Europe might be dumb enough to offer a blank check to Ukraine forever...they could be just that a stupid, at cost of hyperinflation, collapse of industry, recession, and their own people freezing to death. Their idiocy is limitless.
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It's not a problem for the west. They don't give it away, not because they have nothing, but because they are afraid of WWIII. America has enough weapons in the desert for three such wars. With fifty old F15s or two dozen F35s, they could end the war in two months.
And you have to prepare for the real options, not the sucked up ones. That is why they are talking about negotiations, which can end with a stable situation, which means giving Russia the Crimea at most, and even stipulating the terms of return.
 
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Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
SolarWarden said:
If true it doesn't make sense why even put troops there since the area is in Ukraine arty rage unless Russia pulled back to a point its arty can't hit the area. :confused:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591853780806799360
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Maybe infiltration of some commando for artillery spotting ? I don't comprehend the move and more so telling anyone about it. It's swampy no mans land more or less. Passing troops on the other side of the river in Russian rear is a good move if you don't tell anyone about it.
 
baykalov

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
SolarWarden said:
If true it doesn't make sense why even put troops there since the area is in Ukraine arty rage unless Russia pulled back to a point its arty can't hit the area. :confused:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591853780806799360
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According to Rybar, quote:

According to confirmed information, this morning, while trying to land near the village of Pokrovskoye on the Kinburn Spit, a sabotage group of the 73rd Marine Special Operations Center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was destroyed. The defeat of four light-engine vessels was confirmed. It is estimated that up to 20 Ukrainian servicemen were killed. Also, during the application of an artillery strike, support firepower was suppressed in the villages of Kutsurub and Ivanovka, Nikolaev region.
 
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anzha

Captain
Registered Member
Atomicfrog said:
Maybe infiltration of some commando for artillery spotting ? I don't comprehend the move and more so telling anyone about it. It's swampy no mans land more or less. Passing troops on the other side of the river in Russian rear is a good move if you don't tell anyone about it.
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Getting up the Kinburn Peninsula is not so easy. Locals have stated - from what I have read, not seen - it is easier to get a ferry across to the mainland than to drive via road. The Ukrainians might have captured it to distract the Russians by making the Russians move troops up crappy roads or it might have been to provide a base to start launching further artillery strikes.

That said, treat the landings on Kinburn as rumor and unconfirmed.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
phrozenflame said:
so? what's your point? I think everyone knew this is precisely what would happen. Russians didn't prepare for the worst, they prepared for the best with false numbers sent up the chain (hiding corruption) and now they're in trouble.
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So far I have not seen anything that I have not seen happen in other conflicts. You people continue to forget how things were in Iraq 2003. US soldiers were buying cooler t-shirts, body armor, ceramic plates, etc on their own budget. And that was a war with months of preparation that everyone knew was going to happen. HMMV crews were welding sheet metal to vehicles to attempt to improve their resistance to small arms fire. And I do not mean ballistic hardened steel but mild steel plates. Just because Iraq had a small cache of RPG-29s the US squealed that it was unfair and that Russia was supplying Iraq with anti-tank weapons and threatened with sanctions. When those had been bought like over two decades back when the Soviet Union was still around. The US also threatened to use nuclear weapons before the conflict started if Iraq used chemical weapons against them. But of course no one remembers this. The fact is, had the West not provided Ukraine with support, this war would have been over long ago. And Ukraine would likely have ended up losing a lot less of its territory. You will see.

tabu said:
It's not a problem for the west. They don't give it away, not because they have nothing, but because they are afraid of WWIII. America has enough weapons in the desert for three such wars. With fifty old F15s or two dozen F35s, they could end the war in two months.
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:rolleyes:

Right. And what would those fifty old F15s do that the seventy Su-27 Ukraine had in its inventory would not?

As for the F35, if it is that good, how come Israel never enter Syrian airspace and continue to fire standoff weapons with it?
Right now Russia is putting the S-500 into service. S-500 includes the new Yenisei radar which can be also integrated with the S-400.
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Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
SolarWarden said:
This... This was crazy and could have ended very bad with an rpg but Ukraine troops pulled it off.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591847461139931136

I have a feeling Ukraine troops didn't know there was that many Russian troops.
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It's incredible that we see single IFV running havoc like that... it make me remember the T-64 that got shot point blank lately. It's clearly suicide squads going like that.

The number drone feeds are giving us some crazy footages ! I would not be even surprised that we would see some crazy realty show on some frontline unit soon.
 
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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Lancet takes out a Ukrainian BMP. There were troops piggybacking on the BMP when it hit.



Quadcopter dropping grenades on a fortification.



Drone directed artillery fire on Ukrainian vehicles.



Lancet takes out an M777. Ammo exploded soon after.

 
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