The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
I am actually quite impressed that there are people who actually believed those results.

It's the new political way to say ''claimed territories'' more or less... You can do it in two years, when all pro ukrainians have left and you will have near 100% too... it's master trolling for all those referendum, coup and new elections created by the west elsewhere.
 
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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Just moments before the drone impacts the howitzer, there were people ahead of it's view.


 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
I think Putin’s plans and aims are more longer term.

At this point is abundantly clear that fundamental deficiencies in the Russian military means they cannot wage and win a low cost (manpower and equipment) war against Ukraine while it enjoys full NATO support. And WWII like victories bought with rivers of Russian blood would be politically untenable.

This is why the mobilisation isn’t really going to fundamentally change things on the battlefield as far as I can see. It will help to check the Ukrainian advances, but Russia will continue to suffer unacceptable levels of casualties going on the offensive, which is a price they are not willing or able to pay, and hence they are not going to be able to make major breakthroughs and advances even after all the mobilised are fully trained, equipped and deployed.

Hell, even from a purely defensive POV, it doesn’t look great for Russia, as Zelensky will happily march millions of Ukrainians to their deaths to Russian guns, but even with a 10-1 exchange rate, that’s a level of loss the Russian military and society cannot withstand.

The real root solutions to Russia’s problems are not available in the short term, and not while it is engaged in active combat in Ukraine.

But, should Russia unilaterally end its SMO and declare victory, that would fundamentally change two critical factors to Russia’s advantage.

Firstly, it would be impossible for NATO to continue even A fraction of the current level of support to Ukraine in their current economic states. Without that level of support, Ukraine fundamentally lacks the means to continue to make meaningful gains against Russia or inflect unacceptable casualties on the Russians, especially once the Russians start to get the mobilised deployed on the frontlines. Without NATO support, even a million man march against the Russians is just one giant Turkey shoot for the Russians.

Secondly, ending the SMO would give China enough of a fig-leaf to allow large scale military sales to Russia to plug all gaping holes in their current force structure. Although even that will probably be very covert with a lot of ‘joint ventures’ where Chinese systems are repackaged in Russian shells for political expediency for both sides.

The key thing to remember is that ending the SMO now would not be a true end to the conflict, merely a pause, much like 2014 was.

The west and Zelensky will never allow a real peace to happen with Russia still in control of so much Ukrainian territory and especially without a regime change in Moscow.

The level of national humiliation Russia will feel at having to stop short will hopefully give them the drive to do a proper military modernisation.

The west will continue to keep all the sanctions and state-approved discrimination against Russia and ordinary Russians, which should serve as a much needed wake up call to Russia society to the reality that they will never be tolerated so long as they remain a free and sovereign state instead of being reduced to America puppets and vassals as the EU had been.

Once Russian military modernisation has borne sufficient fruit, Putin could take up any one of the undoubtedly countless opportunities and pretexts Zelensky will shower Russia with for years to come with continued shelling of civilians and terrorist bombings against Russian targets to start part 3 of the War.
A ceasefire like you describe would be useful for Russia but it would be useful for Ukraine as well, perhaps even more useful. It would allow NATO to arm Ukraine to a much higher degree and transition Ukraine's air force to Western jets. It wouldn't be escalatory then since "the war is over." The West (at least the elite) is willing to pour endless sums of money into Ukraine, especially since it's seen as successfully stopping Russia.

Russia's going to have to find a way to do the military reform and modernization you describe while engaged in combat in Ukraine. The way to do this is to completely destroy the Ukrainian state's ability to function by attacking not just electricity and water, but food storage and distribution as well. It won't matter how many millions of Ukrainians Zelensky is willing to march to their deaths if they're too hungry to march.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Drones take out a BAT-2 and an M777. The biggest users of the drones are paratroopers of the Russian Air Force and the DPR.

 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Explosions of hand grenades don't appear very large on thermal, but they fling lethal shrapanel much further than you expect.
Some of the soldiers took direct hits and didn’t look even stunned. All of them were crawling away after being hit. Either the explosive charge is petite or their armor is top tier.
 
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