The War in the Ukraine

Botnet

Junior Member
Registered Member
No matter which way you look at it, this is undoubtably a disaster for Russia. Losing Kherson, the largest city they've taken so far, not only is a propaganda victory which will embolden the West and Zelensky, but represents essentially the Russians giving up ever taking Odessa and a culmination of their military. Indeed, I don't see how it could go uphill from here, and the erosion of Russian gains will likely continue as long as Zelensky has the backing of the West. If I were the US right now, I would be seriously considering giving ATACMS.

Another thing to consider. Will the Ukrainians really let the Russians retreat that easily? Hitting their ferries and pontoon bridges would be catastrophic.
 

RedMetalSeadramon

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm sure you understand that Russia hasn't lost 40% of its electrical capacity and isn't facing water or heat shortages. Russian territory is untouched and Russia has the resources continue this war in perpetuity. Aside from Kherson which the West has been harping about like it's the Battle of Armageddon, where is Russia retreating and Ukraine advancing? The front line has been frozen since September.

Every day another Ukrainian powerplant or transformer or water treatment plant goes up in flames. How long do you think they can keep this up? Because Russia can keep it up as long as it takes.

Russians cannot maintain this in perpetuity, no state can.
 

Broccoli

Senior Member
I'm sure you understand that Russia hasn't lost 40% of its electrical capacity and isn't facing water or heat shortages. Russian territory is untouched and Russia has the resources continue this war in perpetuity. Aside from Kherson which the West has been harping about like it's the Battle of Armageddon, where is Russia retreating and Ukraine advancing? The front line has been frozen since September.

Every day another Ukrainian powerplant or transformer or water treatment plant goes up in flames. How long do you think they can keep this up? Because Russia can keep it up as long as it takes.

Militaries can operate without civilian infrastructure so hitting civilians won't save Russian soldiers on frontlines and is only showing how frustrated Kremlin actually is.

And soon Ukraine will get their own 1000km range drone what can hit important civilian infra in Moscow if need be... who is Putin going to blame if Moscow ends up without electricity and heat in winter?
 

pmc

Colonel
Registered Member
If I were the US right now, I would be seriously considering giving ATACMS.
ATACMS is like TB2 drone. the larger the missile easier to shoot it down.
it is the smaller rockets and drones that hard to intercept.
 

Broccoli

Senior Member
No matter which way you look at it, this is undoubtably a disaster for Russia. Losing Kherson, the largest city they've taken so far, not only is a propaganda victory which will embolden the West and Zelensky, but represents essentially the Russians giving up ever taking Odessa and a culmination of their military. Indeed, I don't see how it could go uphill from here, and the erosion of Russian gains will likely continue as long as Zelensky has the backing of the West. If I were the US right now, I would be seriously considering giving ATACMS.

Another thing to consider. Will the Ukrainians really let the Russians retreat that easily? Hitting their ferries and pontoon bridges would be catastrophic.

I think Russian were waiting election results in US before they made a choise to leave, if there has been a red wave Russians most likely would have tried to stay in Kherson, but nothing that much happened so they made an only choise they could. As I pointed out above Ukrainians are getting their own drone with 1000km range... it can pummel everything Russians got inside that range.
 

sheogorath

Colonel
Registered Member
No accusing others of being NATO/NAFO trolls.

While pathetic and unfortunate, the war is not over yet and the Dniper, while also making the life difficult for the Russians to mantain control of the West bank of Kherson, will also make life miserable for the Ukrainians.
 
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ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Russians cannot maintain this in perpetuity, no state can.
It can't in the sense that it will eventually destroy 100% of Ukraine's electricity grid, so in that sense it would stop.
Militaries can operate without civilian infrastructure so hitting civilians won't save Russian soldiers on frontlines and is only showing how frustrated Kremlin actually is.
The state cannot function without infrastructure. And it's not "civilian" infrastructure, the Ukrainian military doesn't get its electricity from some special grid all its own. Supplies move on rail that runs on electricity, and diesel needed by the Ukrainian military is desperately needed by every Ukrainian civilian.

The Russian soldiers on the frontline don't need saving. Russia is pouring in its mobilized troops and it managed to stabilize the frontlines. Ukraine is operating at its full capacity (which is being degraded all the time) while Russia is taking its sweet time training and equipping its newly mobilized forces.
And soon Ukraine will get their own 1000km range drone what can hit important civilian infra in Moscow if need be... who is Putin going to blame if Moscow ends up without electricity and heat in winter?
The West hasn't given and won't give Ukraine long-range weapons because they know exactly where such escalation would lead. The West just wants to extract a pound of flesh from Russia, after that it'll toss Ukraine to the wolves. It's not going to risk the conflict turning nuclear by giving Ukraine sufficient support to expel Russia from its newly-acquired territory.

By the way, Iran isn't supplying Russia with anything. These are essentially Chinese drones - Limbach (a Chinese company) MD550 engines, Taobao electronics, a bit of HE, and a plywood frame. China isn't going to be selling Ukraine the engines or the electronics to make similar drones.
 

Topazchen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Glad to see you admit that the only place where Ukraine can be victorious is in propaganda and perception.

Internet Clausewitzes should have understood by now that casualty minimization is one of Russia's primary war aims; that's the political reality. Holding on to Kherson is untenable without losses the Russian military is not willing to bear. Russia has retreated from Kiev, Kharkov, and a lot of other places, so nihil novi sub sole.

What's important is that Russia is systematically attriting not only Ukraine's capacity to fight, but its capacity to function as a state. No heat, no water, no electricity. Russia is plunging Ukraine into the 18th century and no one can do anything to stop it. Russia can call up reservists and train them unimpeded, and its territory is essentially untouched. That's the fundamental asymmetry Ukrainians and their supporters must confront.

The next phase will be to get these reservists to the front to hold sustainable lines, continue to dismantle Ukraine's electricity grid and other critical infrastructure, and break what remains of Ukraine's air defenses so the VKS can operate freely.
I wonder what 1934's social media would have made of the Long March with the Nationalists in hot pursuit :D:D:D:D
 

sheogorath

Colonel
Registered Member
Militaries can operate without civilian infrastructure so hitting civilians won't save Russian soldiers on frontlines and is only showing how frustrated Kremlin actually is.
Lol, that must be why the US spent billions of dollars building dual purpose infrastructure since 1940's. As has been pointed out multiple times in this thread, the majority of trains in Ukraine are electric, diesels are not nearly enough to pick up the slack and you now have to decide how to distribute your diesel fuel between generators, trains and AFV's. Which is why electrical and transportation grids is one of the first things NATO hits whenever they "defend" themselves, there is no "civilian infraestructure" then.

And soon Ukraine will get their own 1000km range drone what can hit important civilian infra in Moscow if need be.
The COPE-1000 9th gen plasma stealth UCAV?. They won't be getting any of that for the same reasons Ukraine wont be getting ATACMS: you open the door to export to countries NATO doesn't want them exported to. Also, last time I checked, Moscow has a proper IADS that goes a bit beyond obese teenagers with RPK's shooting into the air.

On that note, I do enjoy the mental wank off regarding the ATACMS, completely ignoring such a move has geopolitical ramifications outside this war.
 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
Complete nonsense, its like there's no concept of digging in and defending for the Russians.

The moment the decision was made that the offense will be in the east the south should have immediately assumed defensive posture. Dug in, trenches, there should have been 10 pontoon bridges, 5 for use, 5 for backup and another 5 in reserve held near the banks to quickly reinforce. A fleet of excavators and bulldozers to make semi-temporary dirt and gravel roads to said pontoons.

What were the Russians in the south doing all this time?
10 bridges? Have you seen the width of the channel? For the number you mentioned, at least something like +30 engineering vehicles are needed just to keep the 5 floating bridges operational, not to mention the vehicles needed to support the 5 backup bridges and the other 5 bridges in reserve, considering the length of the MTU-72(MLC-50).

Another thing, how will they assume a defensive posture to maintain positions on the right bank with only a limited beachhead in Kherson and with much lower numbers in addition to being under pressure against the Ukrainian advance? If the Russians still had the bridges intact, not depending on engineering vehicles and far from the range of AFU artillery and also Ukrainian air power, it would make sense to do that and you would be right.

You are confusing everything. What did you say here:
Dug in, trenches, there should have been 10 pontoon bridges, 5 for use, 5 for backup and another 5 in reserve held near the banks to quickly reinforce.
The Russians did not create a defensive posture to maintain positions on Kherson. This is not a defensive posture to maintain positions in order to reinforce the fronts, but to create a defensive retrograde posture. On Telegram, it's pretty clear that if they could, they could maintain this position on the right bank, but with limited supplies leading to heavy casualties, which is quite believable.

The delaying action is conducted to exchange space for time. Thus, it is carried out in such a way as to allow the majority of troops to retreat in an orderly and rapid manner through the watercourse. It can be conducted continuously, in successive positions towards the rear or in alternating positions, depending on the type of forces employed. The value of the force that performs the delaying action is a function of the enemy and the time needed to organize and establish the defense on the other bank and the time needed to prepare the crossing area. It takes much more than bridges to do this, it needs engineering reinforcements, anti-aircraft artillery, barrier system, field artillery... if retrograde action is desired for a long period and the enemy strength is much superior.

Another thing to consider. Will the Ukrainians really let the Russians retreat that easily? Hitting their ferries and pontoon bridges would be catastrophic.
It would be downright stupid for the AFU to let the Russians do that, even more so when the crossing forces at Kherson are within range of the Ukrainian artillery and air force as well. A retreating transposition combines two of the most difficult types
of operations - a retrograde movement and a watercourse transposition. Ukraine will have to rely on air assets combined with artillery power to create chaos on the river crossing at Kherson, even more so when this evacuation will be under concentration of the crossing forces, which increases the chances of tactical success by potentially neutralizing many troops under a strong concentration of localized firepower. If they cannot effectively suppress Russian artillery on the other side of the shore, they can simply direct their artillery towards the Russian forces acting on the front line that are providing cover for the crossing, that is, directing fire not only at the marching columns, as well as for crossing places, especially during their use.
 
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