The War in the Ukraine

[RedMetalSeadramon]

And the water supply is secured. Have you even looked at the map. The Crimean Canal is on the east side of Kherson. Not the West side. The entrance of the canal is behind the Kakhovka Dam. So the only way for Ukraine to cut water supply is by blocking the Zaporizhia Dam, which Zaporizhia City is almost entirely in front of it. The dam that blocked the Crimean Water Canal was located deep into eastern Kherson and was destroyed several months ago

The canal works BECAUSE there is a dam. Please have some basic understanding of civil infrastructure before making this comment. The Canal has water because the water level rise with the existence of the Dam, if its not there nothing flows into the canal.

 

[baykalov]

Kadyrov - about leaving Kherson:

"Surovikin saved a thousand soldiers who were actually surrounded. After weighing all the pros and cons, General Surovikin made a difficult but right choice between senseless sacrifices for the sake of loud statements and saving the priceless lives of soldiers.

Kherson is a very difficult area without the possibility of a stable regular supply of ammunition and the formation of a strong, reliable rear. Why was this not done from the first days of the special operation? This is another question. But in this difficult situation, the general acted wisely and far-sightedly - he evacuated the civilian population and ordered a regrouping.

The fact that Kherson is a difficult combat territory was known to everyone from the very first days of the special operation. The soldiers of my units also reported that it was very difficult to fight in this area. Yes, it can be kept, it is possible to organize at least some supply of ammunition, but the cost will be numerous human lives. And this forecast does not suit us.

Therefore, I think that Surovikin acted like a real military general, not afraid of criticism."

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[Atomicfrog]

Kadyrov - about leaving Kherson:

"Surovikin saved a thousand soldiers who were actually surrounded. After weighing all the pros and cons, General Surovikin made a difficult but right choice between senseless sacrifices for the sake of loud statements and saving the priceless lives of soldiers.

Kherson is a very difficult area without the possibility of a stable regular supply of ammunition and the formation of a strong, reliable rear. Why was this not done from the first days of the special operation? This is another question. But in this difficult situation, the general acted wisely and far-sightedly - he evacuated the civilian population and ordered a regrouping.

The fact that Kherson is a difficult combat territory was known to everyone from the very first days of the special operation. The soldiers of my units also reported that it was very difficult to fight in this area. Yes, it can be kept, it is possible to organize at least some supply of ammunition, but the cost will be numerous human lives. And this forecast does not suit us.

Therefore, I think that Surovikin acted like a real military general, not afraid of criticism."

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Now is time to blow off all the bridges on the Dnipro from North to south. Nothing will be gain with keeping them and I clearly don't know how they didn't blow them off already. After the first 3 months, it was clear that it was impossible to take Ukraine intact, even more the west of Dnipro. Taking all the east of Ukraine could be seen as a victory, taking less could be seen as a defeat, losing more and not being able to have a stable land bridge to Crimea would be an humiliating defeat.

 

[Phead128]

Withdrawing from Kherson was the right move. The only strategic reason to hold it was as a staging ground for a future push into Mykolaiv and Odessa, which Russia clearly doesn't have an appetite for anymore.

They're now probably aiming for something like: their current frontlines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia + full control over Luhansk and Donetsk.

They're likely hoping the diversion of resources from Kherson + mobilised conscripts will allow them to make a final push to finally take Luhansk and Donetsk. That'll be enough for them to claim victory and try to end the war

Let's see if it pays off for them in Vuhledar, Avdiivka and Bakhmut

This is absolutely correct.

I also predict that Putin will Unilaterally declare victory after Kherson (excl. Kherson city), Donestk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia is under full military control, claim Ukraine has been properly taught a lesson and de-nazified, and de-escalate S.M.O. into local border action and end mobilization (while leaving sizeable Russian peacekeepers in annexed regions to engage in decades long low-intensity border skirmishes) and try to negotiate a settlement.

There is zero chance of sieging Odessa or even Kharkiv or establish a second front in Belarus against Kiev. The closest Chinese experience would be the Sino-Vietnamese War, and it took decades of border skirmishes to arrive at a negotiated border settlement.

 

[abc123]

Like I predicted in June, Russia is likely ceding Kherson as a "goodwill gesture" for peace negotiations in exchange for formal recognition of Crimea/DPR/LNR etc...

This is not a strategic loss for Russia. So I wouldn't say it's a defeat for Russia, Russia captured Kherson at little-to-zero cost on day 8 or invasion because it was lightly defended, so giving it up as a bargaining chip is very smart, particular since it's very difficult to defend (West bank of Dniper river), and Russia extracted what essential human talent that matters. Remember, it's 80K new tax-payers in Russia, human talent is what matters, not land or territory (which is already bountiful in Russia proper), and Kherson is a useful bargaining chip for peace negotiations to gain Paper neutrality and recognition of DNR/LNR/Crimea.

If this isn't a defeat for Russia, then Putin would be bragging around with such glorious sucess of Russians arms. But no, instead he let Shoigu and Surovikin take the "credit" for this "glorious sucess and 5D chess move".

 

[RedMetalSeadramon]

Kadyrov - about leaving Kherson:

"Surovikin saved a thousand soldiers who were actually surrounded. After weighing all the pros and cons, General Surovikin made a difficult but right choice between senseless sacrifices for the sake of loud statements and saving the priceless lives of soldiers.

Kherson is a very difficult area without the possibility of a stable regular supply of ammunition and the formation of a strong, reliable rear. Why was this not done from the first days of the special operation? This is another question. But in this difficult situation, the general acted wisely and far-sightedly - he evacuated the civilian population and ordered a regrouping.

The fact that Kherson is a difficult combat territory was known to everyone from the very first days of the special operation. The soldiers of my units also reported that it was very difficult to fight in this area. Yes, it can be kept, it is possible to organize at least some supply of ammunition, but the cost will be numerous human lives. And this forecast does not suit us.

Therefore, I think that Surovikin acted like a real military general, not afraid of criticism."

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Complete nonsense, its like there's no concept of digging in and defending for the Russians.

The moment the decision was made that the offense will be in the east the south should have immediately assumed defensive posture. Dug in, trenches, there should have been 10 pontoon bridges, 5 for use, 5 for backup and another 5 in reserve held near the banks to quickly reinforce. A fleet of excavators and bulldozers to make semi-temporary dirt and gravel roads to said pontoons.

What were the Russians in the south doing all this time?

 

[Pmichael]

Kadyrov - about leaving Kherson:

"Surovikin saved a thousand soldiers who were actually surrounded. After weighing all the pros and cons, General Surovikin made a difficult but right choice between senseless sacrifices for the sake of loud statements and saving the priceless lives of soldiers.

Kherson is a very difficult area without the possibility of a stable regular supply of ammunition and the formation of a strong, reliable rear. Why was this not done from the first days of the special operation? This is another question. But in this difficult situation, the general acted wisely and far-sightedly - he evacuated the civilian population and ordered a regrouping.

The fact that Kherson is a difficult combat territory was known to everyone from the very first days of the special operation. The soldiers of my units also reported that it was very difficult to fight in this area. Yes, it can be kept, it is possible to organize at least some supply of ammunition, but the cost will be numerous human lives. And this forecast does not suit us.

Therefore, I think that Surovikin acted like a real military general, not afraid of criticism."

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somewhat funny because the same Intel Slave couldn’t stop claiming that Russia has stabilized the front and Ukraine suffers unsustainable losses. Now that what they claimed wouldn’t happen was actually a good move. What’s the purpose of entertaining those coping telegrams?

 

[Overbom]

This is absolutely correct.

I also predict that Putin will Unilaterally declare victory after Kherson (excl. Kherson city), Donestk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia is under full military control, claim Ukraine has been properly taught a lesson and de-nazified, and de-escalate S.M.O. into local border action and end mobilization (while leaving sizeable Russian peacekeepers in annexed regions to engage in decades long low-intensity border skirmishes) and try to negotiate a settlement.

There is zero chance of sieging Odessa or even Kharkiv or establish a second front in Belarus against Kiev. The closest Chinese experience would be the Sino-Vietnamese War, and it took decades of border skirmishes to arrive at a negotiated border settlement.

Sounds like a bad deal for Russia and Putin would actually be throwing a very hot potato to the next Russian leader.

A Ukraine that had to give up its lands would be so angry and feeling so humiliated that they would turn into Israel 2.0. Seeing that no one in the Russian elite has any strategic thinking, I could very well see them going with it.

If Russia couldn't even deal with this 2022 Ukraine, then I dont think they are going to like a 2030 or 2040 Ukraine

 

[abc123]

Russia is plunging Ukraine into the 18th century and no one can do anything to stop it.

And yet, Russian forces are retreating and Ukrainean are advancing. How come? What would they be able to do if they weren't in 18th century?

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

And yet, Russian forces are retreating and Ukrainean are advancing. How come? What would they be able to do if they weren't in 18th century?

I'm sure you understand that Russia hasn't lost 40% of its electrical capacity and isn't facing water or heat shortages. Russian territory is untouched and Russia has the resources continue this war in perpetuity. Aside from Kherson which the West has been harping about like it's the Battle of Armageddon, where is Russia retreating and Ukraine advancing? The front line has been frozen since September.

Every day another Ukrainian powerplant or transformer or water treatment plant goes up in flames. How long do you think they can keep this up? Because Russia can keep it up as long as it takes.