The War in the Ukraine

The owner of PMC "Wagner" Prigozhin, who previously criticized the command of the Russian army for retreating from Liman, today supported the decision to leave Kherson.

“The decision to withdraw troops from the right bank of the Dnieper is not an easy one, but it speaks of the readiness of the command to take responsibility for the lives of soldiers. The withdrawal of troops with minimal losses is Surovikin’s achievement, which does not do honor to Russian weapons, but emphasizes the personal qualities of the commander, who acted like a man who is not afraid of responsibility,” said Prigozhin.

There's plenty of video out there of Surovikin and Shoigu saying they have to withdraw from the Left Bank due to logistics.

Just to add a bit more flavor, the Ukrainian flag was raised in Snihurivka. Stremousov mentioned the Ukrainians had a foothold there yesterday. And then...

Stremousov is reported dead in Kherson of a "road accident." Is there an outbreak of doroga pox to go with the okno pox?

It would require a very significant collapse of Ukrainians for the Russians to be able to push across the Dniepr again in the South. I don't think that collapse is on the near or even medium term horizon. That means taking Odessa and linking to Transnistria is off the table.

Is the range of HIMARS and other artillery sufficient to complicate logistics from Crimea to the mainland? The E105 seems safe in the east, but M14 and E97 for long stretches are potentially very vulnerable.

Next spot to watch is Svatove and Lugansk in general.

Assuming a clean retreat, TBD, then Zaporizhzhia.

Donetsk will be a grind as usual, afaict.

BlackWindMnt said:

Also the city will be empty of civilians, so when they go on the offensive in Kherson region again they might go in harder.
Ukraine wins a PR win for the west and might boast about it at the G20 during the US parts etc.

But time will tell what will happen in winter.

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Here is a problem though: the Ukrainians aren’t just going to sit on their hands and wait. They will either:
1. Rearm and regroup. They will also receive reinforcements that have been trained for at least several months and will receive “new” equipment from the West. Finally they may even rotate out the batte worn troops for fresh ones and promote those who demonstrated leadership under fire.
or
2. Continue on the offensive and give the Russians no time to regroup.

Regardless of the option chosen, the Ukrainians aren’t going to sit on their butts and get surprised by a Russian counter offensive with their pants down.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

Here is a problem though: the Ukrainians aren’t just going to sit on their hands and wait. They will either:
1. Rearm and regroup. They will also receive reinforcements that have been trained for at least several months and will receive “new” equipment from the West. Finally they may even rotate out the batte worn troops for fresh ones and promote those who demonstrated leadership under fire.
or
2. Continue on the offensive and give the Russians no time to regroup.

Regardless of the option chosen, the Ukrainians aren’t going to sit on their butts and get surprised by a Russian counter offensive with their pants down.

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Option 2 is untenable for the same reason Russia holding Kherson is untenable: the river crossing.

The Russian mobilization has to be supplemented by a large scale armament program, especially of newer systems. The West is giving Ukraine aid by the eye-dropper - a handful of HIMARS here, a couple of air defense systems there. This would be swamped by Russia using its energy windfalls to fund a proper rearmament.

Sinnavuuty said:

Kherson will fall perhaps even before the 15th of November.

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This was already foreseen. The position was untenable and while inflicting many casualties on the AFU, Surovikin was already saying that the situation was difficult, indicating less than optimistic conditions for the prolonged defense of the city.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

Here is a problem though: the Ukrainians aren’t just going to sit on their hands and wait. They will either:
1. Rearm and regroup. They will also receive reinforcements that have been trained for at least several months and will receive “new” equipment from the West. Finally they may even rotate out the batte worn troops for fresh ones and promote those who demonstrated leadership under fire.
or
2. Continue on the offensive and give the Russians no time to regroup.

Regardless of the option chosen, the Ukrainians aren’t going to sit on their butts and get surprised by a Russian counter offensive with their pants down.

Click to expand...

I don't expect activity in Kherson region anytime soon, just like the Russian are limited right now with what they can take or hold. The Ukrainians are also limited and Ukraine is going for PR victories to continue selling this war to their backers, thats my opinion.

I think with an extra 400k mobilised and "volunteers" soldiers going into Ukraine, Russia will be less limited by manpower than they are right now. They could do an offensive in the North and clean up their side of the Dnieper. When Ukraine collapses, because i think it will Russia can then go on the offensive toward Odessa this might happen in 2024 or so.

Ukrainian officials in Zelensky's inner circle still do not believe they will get the city of Kherson on a platter.

tankphobia said:

So, one of the major aim of the war for Russia was to secure the water supply for Crimea, so now that they are giving up Kherson what's stopping Ukraine from blocking the water canal off again?

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And the water supply is secured. Have you even looked at the map. The Crimean Canal is on the east side of Kherson. Not the West side. The entrance of the canal is behind the Kakhovka Dam. So the only way for Ukraine to cut water supply is by blocking the Zaporizhia Dam, which Zaporizhia City is almost entirely in front of it. The dam that blocked the Crimean Water Canal was located deep into eastern Kherson and was destroyed several months ago

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kokole said:

- This is a clear military decision rather than political surrender. The west will of course twist it in this way. But Russia has always valued life over mostly everything.

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Sounds like a surrender to me unless he thinks that Russia is going to take back that land in the foreseeable future (spoiler alert: it won't, especially after it retreats)

FriedButter said:

One only wonders why Russia is stubbornly handling this issue with kiddie gloves.

Given that nothing really has happened in Kherson yet. I wonder if the Mid Terms had a role in this decision. Still baffling as to why they insist on continuing to fight this conflict in this strange way.

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Jiang ZeminFanboy said:

I didn't believe it and yet it happened

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590360973550190594

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The fish rots from the head

gelgoog said:

If that is true, that the Russian military will leave Kherson, it is a retarded move. It will be next to impossible to move back into the right side of the Dniper on the south after this.

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It is already decided, Surovikin confirmed it.