The War in the Ukraine

KUB-BLA loitering drone is definitely active.


Once again, Shehad 136 or Geran 2 is not a loitering drone. It flies a predetermined path straight to its target via GPS/INS. So far none of the Iranian drones are loitering drones. Do not confuse with the similar KUB drone (see above) which is a true loitering drone that has a similar wing design, and the Lancet. Attacks against tactical targets are most likely by KUB and Lancets while strategic and infrastructure targets are by Geran 1 and 2.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

Well, Ukrainian soldiers are getting equipped with Type 56 rifles:

According to some comments, these rifles most likely came from either Finland, who bought a lot of Type 56’s for their militia, or Albania. So they are most likely there.

Click to expand...

They look obsolete, no Piccadilly rails to mount sights, etc,. The AK74M rifles used by the Russian forces appear upgraded with Piccadilly rails, folding stocks and so on. AK-74M3? If they are not using AK-12 that is.

Strangelove said:

Warning: many dead Ukr bodies...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586128335133970432

Click to expand...

Yeah I can post many recent dead Russian soldiers but all it proves is that in war a lot of soldiers die.

Ukrainians keep on trucking with slow and steady gains. It reminds me of the lull before the blitz to Izyum and then Lyman. Maybe another blitz is coming soon.

Something happened in Sevastopol last night.

Various bits of footage floating around but it's unclear exactly what occurred.

Phead128 said:

Igor Strelkov and former Donbass fighters were calling for partial mobilization as early as middle March, 2022, only 3 weeks after the invasion. These comments by @Aegis21 were particular prescient.




So the need for partial mobilization (and arguably infrastructure targeting and full-scale war) was readily apparent as early as middle March 2022 to former Donbass fighters and Strelkov...

It's anyone's guess why it took so long to partially mobilize and target infrastructure. Perhaps Putin thought a scorched earth policy was unacceptable to Ukrainians, which are essentially ethnic Russians misled by Western influence (i.e. "Brotherly war" rose-tinted glasses)... As has been alluded to before, war is a matter of life and death, and why Russia takes it so non-chalantly instead of going for full-scale war with Kiev regime change is beyond me...

Click to expand...

Putin is a notorious procrastinator. He preferred to kick the can down the road instead of making the unpopular decision to mobilize the country’s population. In the end, the decision was forced on him as he ran out of road.

Phead128 said:

It's anyone's guess why it took so long to partially mobilize and target infrastructure. Perhaps Putin thought a scorched earth policy was unacceptable to Ukrainians, which are essentially ethnic Russians misled by Western influence (i.e. "Brotherly war" rose-tinted glasses)... As has been alluded to before, war is a matter of life and death, and why Russia takes it so non-chalantly instead of going for full-scale war with Kiev regime change is beyond me...

Click to expand...

Ukrainians are not "essentially ethnic Russians" though. Even their language is actually closer to Polish than Russian unless you are talking about surzhyk.

lucretius said:

Something happened in Sevastopol last night.

Various bits of footage floating around but it's unclear exactly what occurred.

Click to expand...

Likely a drone attack. My question is why doesn't Russian air force shoot down the globalhawk flying near Sevastopol giving Ukraine ISR info? It's unmanned and that would be the perfect target to call the US bluff. I mean you heard a lot of threats to anyone that helps Ukraine I kinda figured unmanned ISR aircraft would be a perfect target.

Failed AFU offensive near Donetsk. An AFU armored group breaking through to the runway was dispersed and partially destroyed. Their infantry also suffered casualties: the bodies of 22 Ukrainian fighters were left lying in the fields after the clash. Timely detection of the enemy from the air made it possible to disrupt the attack and destroy half of the advancing armored vehicles. Another attempt by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to regain positions near Donetsk ended in failure and the loss of at least one infantry platoon.

---

The governor of Sevastopol said that today a massive air and sea drone attack was launched on Sevastopol. All drones were destroyed. The drone attack on Sevastopol was coordinated with the help of the American RQ-4 Global Hawk UAV.

Ships of the Black Sea Fleet repulse an UAV attack in the waters of the Sevastopol Bay - Governor Razvozhaev.

"No objects were hit in the city. We remain calm. The situation is under control. All operational services are at the ready."

Also, local authorities reported that the road in Sevastopol was temporarily blocked, ferries and boats do not go through the bay.

Atomicfrog said:

It was a mobilisation of reserve, so it was people who have already done their mandatory term of service. 18-25 year old Russian boys are for conscription, each year between 200 000 and 300 000 are drafted to do a one year of mandatory term of service. Don't mix the two of them...

Click to expand...

It is important to have a clear perspective on the next two to three months for the RF.

Ukraine is not giving up, but has instead declared its withdrawal from any negotiations with Putin. The condition, full de-occupation of the country, security guarantees, reparations and contributions. The West is fully supporting and arming Ukraine. More and more every day.
The Russian Armed Forces, have completely lost their pre-war Armed Forces in men, and equipment, have almost completely lost their combat reserve and have started using second and third line equipment. Mobilisation and its effect is questionable, the rear is not coping, equipment and specialists are missing. There are no officers. Winter is coming, which will further exacerbate the problems. PMCs have exhausted their potential. and are moving into the category on the principle of mobilization.

The AFU has seized the strategic initiative and is dictating its will. They conduct a series of operations, the purpose of which is clear, but at an operational level it is not clear. The Russian Armed Forces are constantly suffering tangible losses, which are becoming more and more difficult to replenish.
Repairs and replenishment are already being carried out only by third-line equipment, with rare exceptions.

There are virtually no allies, and those that exist are small and militarily insignificant.

The mobilised are active in the troops, but the rear is virtually unprepared to receive them.
They are not trained, they do not have trained NCOs and officers. and it is only a matter of time. when the sense of mobilization becomes negative. The mobilized are not prepared for winter and with very bad material provision will enter the troops completely demoralized. And what will happen then?