There are many consequences of a Russian attack at Ukrainian nuclear infrastructure that will bear negative cost for Russia but I don't have the time to explain it here at length. I'll mention just the most obvious and pertinent: per adopted NATO policy any disruption to nuclear safety in Ukraine caused by Russian military activity triggers article 5.
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Because apart from Enerhodar all other facilities are only vulnerable to air and missile strikes the measures undertaken will establish a de jure NATO-enforced no-fly zone over nuclear sites in Ukraine
If NATO declares war on Russia then Russia will just blow up NATO airbases. Good luck trying to enforce a no fly zone without airbases.
In every single conflict US led forces attacked other nations since 1991 none of the nations they attacked could counter attack their airbases but this would not be the case here. I doubt Russia considers a possible conflict with whole of NATO without Russia using tactical nukes considering the force disparity.
Why do you think Russia developed Kinzhal and put Zircon into production? Kinzhal has already been used successfully multiple times in this conflict, with a conventional warhead, but the Russians can switch to tactical nuclear ones up to 500kt yield if necessary. Most of those targets the Russians hit did not require the use of Zinzhal so it was clearly both a test and a warning to NATO. Figure out yourself if a 500kt nuke would finish up an airbase or not.
Trying to enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine would require the US to deploy a substantial amount of its own air power to Europe, since Russia basically has more combat aircraft than France, the UK, and Germany combined. Even if you do not consider the Russian air defense network. If the US tried to move that many aircraft into Europe to attempt a no fly zone those aircraft movements would be detected by Russia.
the reaction to Russia's use of tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine would be the destruction of Black Sea Fleet.
What makes you think Russia cannot counter that with attacks on US forward bases in either Europe or Japan?
As such it is most likely that any offensive operation undertaken by Ukrainian forces at such time will not meet any meaningful resistance which will end with a total rout of Russian forces from Ukraine since two weeks is all that is necessary to clear the southern region of the front between Zaporozhia and Donetsk which will then result in the collapse of defenses on the right side of Dnepr, a disorganized rout into and out of Crimea.
Nice fantasy.
Furthermore point 4 effectively makes it possible to attack Russian facilities in Syria simply by using the excuse that they constitute threat to USAF bombers from Diego Garcia and USAF will ensure it by flying bombers as close to Latakia as possible. It won't happen to demonstrate that it is "all about nuclear safety in Ukraine".
Do you even know where Syria and Diego Garcia are by pointing them on a map, or are you just delusional?
Just for your reference Moscow is a lot closer to Damascus, than Damascus is to Diego Garcia, let alone Latakia.
