That’s the expensive part though.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Directly supplying arms to Russia would cross a very bright red line and would potentially cost China a lot. Russia would have to make it worth China's while and the only thing I can think of which might merit taking on such costs would be permanent basing rights in the Russian Far East for subs and bombers, I.e. some sort of Soveriegn Base Area type arrangement like UK/Cyprus.
It's not even clear how a Russia victory will benefit China? Everyone is importing green energy and EVs due to energy crunch right now which is great for Chinese economy. I think this war is going exactly the way that China would prefer, there's a reason they were able to bank all that cheap oil pre-iran.
Europe needs new colonies to regain it's former colonial glory, based on a dialectic class analysis. Splitting Russia (and China) can provide such neo-colonies.
PAC-3 failing, and failing bad. Zero ability to stop clustered warheads.
T-64BV gets taken out by three Russian drones.
Geran arrived along GRS-1 in Krivoy Rog. Something huge burning.
Two rockets arrive in Odessa.
Another merchant ship damaged in port in the Odessa region.
Gas station destruction in the Kharkhiv and Zaporyzhia regions.
Tornado-S takes out a UAV control point and a 203mm Malka hits a deployment point, allegedly caused 50 casualties. Artillery remains relevant.
Its good to see people here starting to realize what I have been saying for some time now, that Russia is in deep trouble. They got into this trouble because they slow played the war too much. They did not push hard. They did not mobilize when they still had the decisive advantage. They should have mobilized in 2022 heavily, get into war economy and bulldoze Ukraine. Instead Putin got afraid of getting unpopular. So, he slow rolled the war too much and that gave both Ukraine and the west time to boost their production, setup hidden factories and invest heavily in weapons such as drones that can be produced cheaply inside ukraine in makeshift factories.
Now Russia is in big trouble.
They really have no choice but to heavily mobilize or get beaten slowly. No more easy paths for Putin.
Now Russia is in big trouble.
They really have no choice but to heavily mobilize or get beaten slowly. No more easy paths for Putin.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
What trouble? The difference between small nations and big nations is that everything is big trouble for a small nation but for a big nation, everything's just another problem to be fixed. The defeats of large nations are always temporary, just like the victories of small nations.
If they heavily mobilize, they steamroll Ukraine. If they don't they continue to win slowly. Just a question of which path to victory Putin prefers.
With what? Destroyed factories due to Ukrainian drones?
Refineries are just the start, Ukraine will slowly expand to destroy every Industry Russia has.
The only way to stop this is massive mobilization of men and war economy. Outproduce Ukraine in drones by several times, man the entire country with mass produced air defense. Only then Russia can hope to survive. Once they have stabilized the home front, then bring mass drone strikes to Ukraine itself. Over saturate with 10 times more drones. Then they have some hope of victory.
After the capture of Kostiantynivka, just by looking at a map, I think Russia is slowly but surely advancing toward a frontline where a ceasefire could possibly be made.
This river goes all the way up into Russia and could serve as a good natural border. Kramatorsk is also the last major city in Donetsk and Ukraine's wartime administrative center of Donetsk.
IMO, this line is pretty much the minimum where Russia can still declare it achieved a "victory". Whether they continue on from here (Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy) one can only guess
This river goes all the way up into Russia and could serve as a good natural border. Kramatorsk is also the last major city in Donetsk and Ukraine's wartime administrative center of Donetsk.
IMO, this line is pretty much the minimum where Russia can still declare it achieved a "victory". Whether they continue on from here (Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy) one can only guess
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On the other hand once Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are taken Putin might decide to keep going, because there are dramatically less defensive structure beyond those two cities.
Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Konstantinovka are the three main fortress cities of Donbass built up since 2014. Konstantinovka is already 90% gone and Russians are about 7km from Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Once they are all taken it's just flat ground beyond them. Compare current situation to 1943:
Red Army took the three cities around 6th of September and broke the German line there. Then they chased Manstein's forces all the way to the Dnieper River before the offensive was over, advancing 300km by 22nd of September.
It's not beyond imagination that if these three doorway cities all fall a similar route could happen again, if on a smaller scale.
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Hmm, you might be right. Maybe that's why Russia has paused maneuver operations using tanks. Could be they're rebuilding strength for this push. It does seem pretty empty all the way to around Pavlohrad. But then again, surely Ukraine has built a ton of fortifications to prepare