
Russian forces are approaching Slovyansk from three directions.
There are no major cities beyond Slovyansk, nor is there adequate logistics infrastructure for the Ukrainians to maintain the front line.
It is worth noting that the battles for Slovyansk and Kramatorsk must be fought in tandem, as they share supply lines; any operation undertaken must address both, otherwise the Ukrainians could focus on defending one while the other remains secure.
From the south, they cannot simply attack via the river valley where Druzhkivka is located—approaching from Kostyantynivka—because the corridor is too narrow. A Ukrainian counterattack could encircle such a salient far more easily than the Dobropillya salient last year.
The Russians need to dramatically widen the front, launching frontal, fixing attacks from Rai-Oleksandrivka along the T0514 highway after capturing Dobropillya. This will be the most critical axis of advance, as it is where they will concentrate the "Rubicon" unit to sever supply lines to Kramatorsk; they will need to bypass Kramatorsk to the west.
They need to do the same on the northern flank: establish a broad front extending from Lyman and the area northwest of it to outflank the cities and execute the "Rubicon" maneuver to cut off Slovyansk's supply lines.
Then, they will launch frontal assaults on both cities—a strategy likely to succeed, as the Ukrainians would lack the resources to halt the Russian advance if their supply lines were severely disrupted. The Russians would effectively advance through villages and smaller towns, pushing their drone coverage as close as possible to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, and that would be the decisive factor.
The big question is whether the Ukrainians will make a concerted effort to stop them. They do not necessarily have to. Strategically, they could lose these cities and still be fine, provided they bleed the Russians as much as possible while preserving their own forces to the greatest extent they can. If they truly wanted to use the battles for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk to wear down the Russians as much as possible, it would make sense to allow the Russians to get closer to these cities in order to create the right conditions. They know how desperately Putin and Gerasimov want this; the two will be eager and impatient, and Ukraine's best opportunities to use drones to wear down the Russians lie in tactical operations related to the offensive.