The War in the Ukraine

Tam

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Strategically, Ukraine has one major defensive line of cities, from the south to the north, Pokrovsk, Myrnograd, Konstantinovka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. You can add Liman to the north.

The line got breached in the south, where Pokrovsk and Myrnograd were taken, but most importantly the salient between Myrnograd and Konstantinovka has completely metasized to a full offensive position, allowing Russians to breakthrough to flank Konstantinovka to the west. Konstantinovka is caught in a vise grip of double envelopment, with other Russian forces coming from the east after Chasiv Yar was taken, and from the south after Torestk is taken. The city is now effectively and entirely in red and grey zones. Numerous Russian flags have been raised in many quarters, what remains are mop up zones and a frag zone to the north where the Ukrainians are trying to hold on to a gauntlet to allow forces to escape to Druzhkivka, while under heavy Russian fire.

From another previous post, you can see the next town up the list, Druzhkivka, is now being hit by Krasnopols, which indicates the town is now under artillery range, and is being prepped. All the while other Russian forces are creeping up west of Konstantinovka, which could potentially head southwest of Druzhkivka, then to the back. At the same time, Russian advances to the east of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk line has already put the cities under FPV drone range, and the outskirts and fortifications within indirect tank fire range.

North of the line, Liman is on the verge of collapse from a double envelopment. Once that falls, most importantly the forests around it, the area becomes another staging point for Russian drones, artillery and tank forces to start working towards the north of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk.

After each city falls, it becomes a major deployment and staging point for Russian forces, and a logistics heart, that enables a sustained offensive to other sectors.
 

Tam

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
About Robots in the battlefield.



It feels to me that footage with the ground robot carrying 12 TM-62 mines look staged. If it was actually successful in a tactical sense and used confidently in the battlefield, these things will frequently show up in the footage shot by Russian FPV drones. The Russians have no need for such things as they usually just FAB it. Both LMUR and Krasnopol also have the ability to penetrate through concrete and why these are also used on smaller buildings.

Equally sus are the footage of machine gun UGVs. If successful they would be in such large numbers that they would show up constantly and consistently on Russian FPV drone footage.

Completely authentic however are the use of UGVs to deliver supplies and evacuate the wounded. However they are also favorite targets of FPV drones so it's not a perfect solution. It's also sad to see a wounded soldier's last moments as he is carried by a UGV, only to have an FPV drone about to strike him. I am not keen on the idea of using UGVs for soldier evacuation.

Using UGVs for mine and street clearing is definitely a plus. I can see the use there. Russian sappers definitely using it.

The problem of UGVs is that they can be observed and tracked by a patient drone operator to either their source or destination sites. This betrays a position usually a drone controller's point or a troop concentration point, and is quickly followed by an air, artillery or drone strike. Radio antennas used for communication are also detected by EW, artillery and drones can swank the site of antennas.
 

Soldier30

Captain
Registered Member
Footage of Russian FAB-250 bombs striking a Ukrainian bridge near the village of Serhiivka. At the time of the strike, two Ukrainian soldiers were on the bridge, attempting to evacuate a disabled ground robotic system. The attack was carried out by a Su-34 fighter-bomber. The Russian bombs destroyed the bridge, killing one Ukrainian soldier and wounding the other, as shown at the end of the video.

 

Tam

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Two can play the same game. Gerans hit a parking lot in Zaporyzhia on trucks believed to be used for carrying drones, their components and other military logistics. Gerans are using optical guidance with video data streaming.

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I believe this is the same event but on the ground. Ukrainian fire fighters trying to put out the fires from destroyed trucks.

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LMUR strike on a UAV control point in Krasnopolye, Sumy region.

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tamsen_ikard

Captain
Registered Member
Militarily Ukraine is losing, two strategic fortified cities --- Konstantinovka and Liman right about the same time. Both being lost in a well executed text book fashion. That's on top of one settlement after another.

Ukraine has never regained one city that it has lost. Even Kupyansk is once again on the brink of being taken by the Russians. Ukraine's chance of taking back the entire Donbass is militarily zero.

Biggest loser is Europe. It's dream of being an economic and industrial superpower to match the US and China is completely dashed and gone, without Russian mineral and energy resources. On top of that, it also lost 60 percent of Ukraine's mineral resources. Europe is caught in a tight spiral of economic and industrial decay. You will see this when German firms, from cars to chemicals, will outsource their production to their JV in China where there's access to Russian energy and other resources, then export the production from there.

Biggest winner is China, now that Russia is wedded to it's back, enjoying direct access to it's energy, agriculture, market and mineral resources.
It doesnt matter how many city Russia captures in a war of attrition. They r losing men and material faster than Ukraine who has unlimited material from the west and will increase production over time.

Even if Russia captures all of Donbass, but then Ukraine keeps fighting and inflixts massive losses on Russia then they have to either mobilize men and get into a war economy, or they have to sign an unfavorable peace deal which will likely demand russian withdrawal. Essentially defeat.

Russia is in a very bad situation right now. They must either mobilize or face slow defeat
 

FriedButter

Brigadier
Registered Member
It doesnt matter how many city Russia captures in a war of attrition. They r losing men and material faster than Ukraine who has unlimited material from the west and will increase production over time.

Which is why Ukraine is kidnapping their people off the streets for years while the Russian continue with their usual recruitment process.

If you’re going to cope with propaganda then at least make it more convincing.
 

tamsen_ikard

Captain
Registered Member
Which is why Ukraine is kidnapping their people off the streets for years while the Russian continue with their usual recruitment process.

If you’re going to cope with propaganda then at least make it more convincing.
And yet Ukrainians are fully motivated in the war and Putin is afraid to mobilize even a thousand people. Show you how massive the difference in motivation between Russians and Ukrainians.

Ukrainians think being part of EU is paradise and they r willing sacrifice everything to be able to achieve EU membership.

Russia will not be able to match that level of motivation.
 

FriedButter

Brigadier
Registered Member
And yet Ukrainians are fully motivated in the war and Putin is afraid to mobilize even a thousand people. Show you how massive the difference in motivation between Russians and Ukrainians.

And the fully mobilized Ukrainians are being slammed through attrition as the unmobilized Russians said they would in mid 2022.

The Russians are supposedly taking several times more casualties than Ukraine. Yet, the Russian army continues to grow and the amount of troops in the operation continue to grow. All at the same time as recruitment plummets to record lows.

Syrskyi reveals timeline for occupiers’ army growth in Ukraine
Russia is preparing for escalation, raising its army in Ukraine to 800,000.

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This number represents about 20% of the total occupying force of the aggressor state currently engaged in combat operations, estimated at around 710,000 personnel.

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TMA1

New Member
Registered Member
And yet Ukrainians are fully motivated in the war and Putin is afraid to mobilize even a thousand people. Show you how massive the difference in motivation between Russians and Ukrainians.

Ukrainians think being part of EU is paradise and they r willing sacrifice everything to be able to achieve EU membership.

Russia will not be able to match that level of motivation.
That is insane. This is the issue. Our oligarchs are no better than theirs you goof. Our quality of life is quickly deteriorating. I am still absolutely stunned by the mentality of these servile east europeans and their desperate need for approval from a morally and physically decaying west. Do you not see what happens to EU countries who do not obey? Do you not see that you will get a centrist puppet that does not respect you or the will of the nation's people? What kind of freakish mind control has made Putin, a centrist himself and a little lawyer at heart, become cartoon villain tier? What made a republic like Russia become viewed as worse than the Soviet communist tyrants of old? Why is nobody at all willing to broach the topic of the regime changes, color revolutions, the FvEy guided "student protest groups", the hydra-like NGO complex and all the subversive nonsense it pushes? We call all this "soft power". Worst part is we know this all happens because ffs the think tanks guiding their damn policies publish whitepapers discussing it all openly!

Ask yourself this. Do we demand regional domination over neighboring nations? Does Europe? Does China? Why should Russia be any different?
 

Tam

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
It doesnt matter how many city Russia captures in a war of attrition. They r losing men and material faster than Ukraine who has unlimited material from the west and will increase production over time.

Even if Russia captures all of Donbass, but then Ukraine keeps fighting and inflixts massive losses on Russia then they have to either mobilize men and get into a war economy, or they have to sign an unfavorable peace deal which will likely demand russian withdrawal. Essentially defeat.

Russia is in a very bad situation right now. They must either mobilize or face slow defeat

The actual evidence does not show that. The fact that the Russians advances in both urban and forest combat where it is a fragfest indicates a confident and reliable advantage in both men and material in quantity and experience. How do you get both at the same time? You have much less casualties, allowing you to retain material and men and better survivability results in more accumulated experience.

Ukrainian claims are sus, videos are staged.

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Trying to replace soldiers with ground robots and foreign mercenaries are indicative of extreme shortage of manpower. The fall of two fortified cities at the same time aligns with that. It aligns with observed forced mobilization. Being consistently getting trapped into cauldrons aligns with results of massive casualties. Historically, battles that end up getting flanked and surrounded end up with massive casualties of the surrounded. The Russians are quick to give up territory to prevent getting surrounded.

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50th Unmanned Brigade Varyag striking various Ukrainian targets with long range drones, likely optically guided Gerans and Gerberas. These include logistics trucks, power substations, gas processing plants, gas distribution centers, logistics centers, trains, command posts, etc,.


 
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