The War in the Ukraine

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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Halcyon66 said:
Russian debt defaults are surging, with a quarter of the bond market at risk, while Putin hides in bunkers fixated on his war instead of the economy

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Putin says he thinks Ukraine conflict 'coming to an end'

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The twisted web they weave...............

Regards,
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Russia's debt to GDP ratio is around 17-20%. China government is over 88%. EU on average is around 87%, with Germany around 63% and Greece over 124%. The US is 122-124%.

Russia recently sold 22 tons of gold from it's reserve. Some held that as a sign of a collapsing economy. Russia has around 2,300 tons of gold in reserve, and produces over 300 tons annually. Due to sanctions, the gold buyer is no doubt, China.
 
T

tamsen_ikard

Captain
Registered Member
Heresy said:
I'm saying that exclaiming at this point that Russia is screwed and is on the verge of defeat is a demonstration of room-temperature IQ.
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What is your envisioned scenario about how this war will end with anything resembling a Russian victory?

Because it aint happening.

Ukraine is not collapsing as long as unlimited money from EU keep coming in and they will, with 20 trillion dollar gdp backing them up.

Europeans will eat grass and yet keep funding Ukraine.

After Trump is gone, democrats will start the money taps from US as well.

Russia cannot make gains when Ukraine can stop any kind of advance using drones and now ground robots.

It doesnt matter how much artillery shell or glide bombs russia can make. They cannot make gains due to drones.

The writing is on the wall. Russia cannot win, and most likely will lose because Ukraine will not let them keep their gains.
 
T

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
What is your envisioned scenario about how this war will end with anything resembling a Russian victory?

Because it aint happening.

Ukraine is not collapsing as long as unlimited money from EU keep coming in and they will, with 20 trillion dollar gdp backing them up.

Europeans will eat grass and yet keep funding Ukraine.

After Trump is gone, democrats will start the money taps from US as well.

Russia cannot make gains when Ukraine can stop any kind of advance using drones and now ground robots.

It doesnt matter how much artillery shell or glide bombs russia can make. They cannot make gains due to drones.

The writing is on the wall. Russia cannot win, and most likely will lose because Ukraine will not let them keep their gains.
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EU has tremendous debt compared to Russia. Added to the figures above France has 116% and the UK has 94%.

Russia again, has 17 to 20%.

No matter the GDP, the EU has much more to pay up, including it's social welfare. Now it has to deal with more inflation thanks to oil prices.

Germany is in the state of deindustrialization. That's a clear fact. Losing more auto sales in China doesn't help since autos are the heart of the German industrial empire. That empire is getting clocked away by Chinese EVs.

Drones need rare earth minerals for their electric motors. Who has put tight controls on rare earths? China. These doesn't apply to Russia because Russia is China's bro. It's why Russian drones cost much less to make, plus Russian access to Chinese dual use. A Geran costs much less than a Leleka-100, $40,000 to $100,000.

Russians have plenty of ground drones too.

Russians are now advancing all over the Sumy, Kharkhiv and Seversk regions. Over 100,000 are in reserve and ready to go in the Dobrophilia sector, another 100,000 ready to go in Zaporyzhia. According to Ukraine.

Europe is in a fertilizer and urea crisis due to the Persian Gulf blockage. Guess who makes urea outside of the Middle East. Russia.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
tamsen_ikard said:
What is your envisioned scenario about how this war will end with anything resembling a Russian victory?
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Currently now with Russia taking 20% of Ukraine up to anything more.
tamsen_ikard said:
Because it aint happening.
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Already happened
tamsen_ikard said:
Ukraine is not collapsing as long as unlimited money from EU keep coming in and they will, with 20 trillion dollar gdp backing them up.

Europeans will eat grass and yet keep funding Ukraine.
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That's what we're counting on. If the EU wasn't all in but instead reserved themselves to helping the US against China, then this whole thing would be rather pointless because Ukraine itself is not important. We want them to be completely exhausted in a deadlock so they're kept away from the real fight that determines the next Pax era. And that $20T quite useless, because it's $20T from finance economies. A little nudge from a production economy like China is all it's going to take to counter anything they can muster... if that's even needed.
tamsen_ikard said:
After Trump is gone, democrats will start the money taps from US as well.
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2029's a long long way and that's assuming that the US can turn it around at home. If America has already figured out it can't win against China and wants to throw in the towel to focus on Russia, then it's time China stepped in so Russia can finish this quickly.
tamsen_ikard said:
Russia cannot make gains when Ukraine can stop any kind of advance using drones and now ground robots.

It doesnt matter how much artillery shell or glide bombs russia can make. They cannot make gains due to drones.
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1. Don't worry. The thing about being a huge nation like Russia is, it has the depth to take its time countering things. Small countries can fall apart once you find something that works and hit them with it but with a large country, you really only manage to temporarily halt their advance before they come up with an answer.

2. Which country makes the most drones? Remind me; I forget. I think it starts with C and it's not Cambodia... more of a Ch sound... Who's that country helping, Russia or EU+Ukraine?
tamsen_ikard said:
The writing is on the wall. Russia cannot win, and most likely will lose because Ukraine will not let them keep their gains.
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Writing is on the wall that no matter how hard this mountain of rats struggle, they will never outlast a bear, and after they pass the point of no return because they're exhausted themselves too badly to fight against Pax Sinica, everything on the NATO side will fall apart. Russian stamina is a big piece on this chessboard and they will reap great rewards for their part.
 
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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
@Soldier30 forgot to post this.

Massed Geran attacks again, with hits reported in many areas. Many of the strikes appear to be optically guided.

Footage has been published of a Russian Geran-2 kamikaze drone strike on a Ukrainian oil depot near the city of Samara in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The Geran-2 drones were controlled directly by operators. The aftermath of the strike is shown at the end of the video. Geran-2 drones also attacked Ukrainian targets in the Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. Full-length videos from the drone strike sites are not yet available. Technical information about the Geran-2 drone is available in the link to the video in the comments.

 
T

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Drones and drone crews are far from invulnerable. Many destroyed, many shot down and drone crews themselves are in constant peril. They get hunted down and destroyed by their own kind on both sides. This sort of thing happens every day, if not every hour in every front on both sides, that the coordination and repetition feels like muscle memory.

AI narrated video


Artillery still counts, mortars still count, tanks through indirect fire still counts. Not just glide bombs but precise air to ground missiles. Even an HE-FRAG or thermobaric Kornet ATGM sent into the window of a drone crew position. What matters is coordination and availability.

Drone crew positions are continuously hunted by reconnaissance drones. Sometimes spotting radio aerials or antennas. Sometimes returning drones are tracked back to their home base. Sometimes careless drone operators emerge from their hideouts to pick up their drones, then walk back to their hideouts. Sometimes ground drones are visibly tracked to the point where they make their delivery, where the recon drone tracks and follows troops picking up the goods then return to their hideouts. Then the ground drone is tracked returning to its base, revealing the drone operators hideout. Sometimes pickups are tracked to their delivery points. Sometimes the drone signals are triangulated by EW to their origins.

Who or what determines the strike is due to the nature of the fortification and the availability of firepower. If not an FPV drone, loitering munition or a heavy drone bomber, that's when traditional barrel, mortar and rocket artillery comes in, along with air strikes. Even tanks using drone directed indirect fire can chime in, firing HE-FRAG rounds over range at opposing drone crew positions.
 
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Soldier30

Captain
Registered Member
Footage of Russian FPV drones attacking Ukrainian drone operators located in a garage and an abandoned building. The operators were observed landing their drones. The location and models of the FPV drones were not disclosed. The video was filmed by soldiers from the Russian 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 1194th Motorized Rifle Regiment.

 
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