The War in the Ukraine

tankphobia

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
Depending on whether Russia can pull out their forces in a orderly fashion, this retreat has the potential to be a high casualty event. The limited ferrying capacity combined with Ukranian forces coming within tube artillery range to the crossing could cause major damage to the stranded forces.
 
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SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
I agree on the backdoor negotiations. This is a "goodwill gesture" to give Ukraine a face-saving "win" before it ultimately accepts an Unequal treaty on Russian terms, namely formal recognition of DNR/LNR/Crimea and a neutrality stance. The problem of this strategy is if you cede one inch, the Ukrainians will demand one mile, which explains Zelensky demanding the entirety of territory taken since Feb 21st to be returned. I wouldn't be surprised if more territory is ceded by Russia as a "goodwill gesture" as part of negotiations. The core of S.M.O. has always been Donestk/Luhansk, the other territories in Kherson/Zapo are nice-to-have, captured at little cost, and entirely tradeable on negotiation table.
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Lol. Wishful thinking and I highly doubt it. Russia was already on the brink in Kherson being cut off from its logistics. IF negotiations did happen it was more than likely an ultimatum for Russian forces. You can leave Kherson and Ukraine wont fire on you or make an offensive move or you can stay and get slowly decimated by artillery, HiMARS, probe attacks, starvation and lack of supplies that will likely cause them to freeze.

Ukraine has the momentum and moral on its side. Russia's best forces are/were in Kherson and were in danger of losing the majority of them. If any deal took place Russians are likely going to pull their forces all the way to Crimean border.
 
sheogorath

sheogorath

Colonel
Registered Member
tankphobia said:
Depending on whether Russia can pull out their forces in a orderly fashion, this retreat has the potential to be a high casualty event. The limited ferrying capacity combined with Ukranian forces coming within tube artillery range to the crossing could cause major damage to the stranded forces.
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Considering the amount of losses of Air defense systems around Kherson the Ukranians have suffered, they will be exposed to RuAF assets if they try to move forward.

Also, there is an increase in use of Krasnopol and Lancets in the area, so its not like they are away from being replied to in kind.
 
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pmc

Colonel
Registered Member
it says they are sending much more strikes. i have some idea why this approach is taken but i will comment on it once thing clear.
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"They don't send to Ukraine one or two rockets as before; they use 40 in a day and then wait - and then again, and again," he said.
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tankphobia

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
sheogorath said:
Considering the amount of losses of Air defense systems around Kherson the Ukranians have suffered, they will be exposed to RuAF assets if they try to move forward.

Also, there is an increase in use of Krasnopol and Lancets in the area, so its not like they are away from being replied to in kind.
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I think the issue is for the Russian forces to retreat there will be large held ups of equipment along the riverbank, that is inevitable. However it is unclear how much heavy vehicles Russia actually has within Kherson itself.

Even with the higher capability Ukranian AA supressed, RuAF will still come under threat of Manpads, so unless they start using a lot more precision guided munitions, UAVs will still be doing all the heavy lifting on counter artillery.

Speaking of artillery, we seem to have seen a substantial downscale in volume of fire used by the Russians compared to earlier in the war.
 
sheogorath

sheogorath

Colonel
Registered Member
tankphobia said:
Even with the higher capability Ukranian AA supressed, RuAF will still come under threat of Manpads, so unless they start using a lot more precision guided munitions, UAVs will still be doing all the heavy lifting on counter artillery.
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With the S300's search and tracking radars gone and the Buk low on missiles, it should open up the sky more to use Flankers on a higher flight level to drop bombs on advancing Ukranian position and some less risky SEAD missions to hunt more stray units out there.
 
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anzha

Captain
Registered Member
I really shouldn't be here right now, but...

Wild reports coming out of Kherson. VERY unverified, but starting to come from the Russian side as well.

13 reported his last orders were to change into civilian clothes and GTFO any way they could. Looking less than good for the Russians.

I wanted to see if the folks here had debunking, but...quiet here. Soooo...?
 
Phead128

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Sheleah said:
This speculation is taken from the Russian propaganda manuals, and thus they try to wash the image a little, that their retreat in Kherson is "negotiated" and not a resounding failure of their "special military operation"... Of course, that speculation has no basis, the same script of "good will" in kyiv or snake island....
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I think we can agree that S.M.O. progress is slow or not going well, but a resounding failure? No need for hyperbolic inflammatory exaggeration please.
SolarWarden said:
Lol. Wishful thinking and I highly doubt it. Russia was already on the brink in Kherson being cut off from its logistics. IF negotiations did happen it was more than likely an ultimatum for Russian forces. You can leave Kherson and Ukraine wont fire on you or make an offensive move or you can stay and get slowly decimated by artillery, HiMARS, probe attacks, starvation and lack of supplies that will likely cause them to freeze.

Ukraine has the momentum and moral on its side. Russia's best forces are/were in Kherson and were in danger of losing the majority of them. If any deal took place Russians are likely going to pull their forces all the way to Crimean border.
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It's probably a combination of both.... Kherson city in a vulnerable position and difficult to defend in long-term, so cut losses earlier, and Kherson city not a core interest (despite annexation), so we can negotiation on some land to further peace settlement. They are not mutually exclusive per se.
 
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