The War in the Ukraine

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
More details from Russian media on Russia's grain deal renewal, quoted by Sputnik:

Earlier in the day, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the elimination of direct and indirect obstacles to the export of Russian fertilizers was one of Moscow's conditions for the resumption of the grain deal.

Putin is giving Ukraine a second chance, but reserves the right to withdraw again from the grain deal if Ukraine does not fulfill the guarantees it has given:

Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the Ministry of Defense to resume participation in the "grain deal". However, the Russian Federation reserves the right to withdraw from it. This could happen if Ukraine violates its guarantees that there will be no more attacks that happened earlier in the Black Sea.

Vladimir Putin noted that only 4% of the grain went to the poorest countries. Everything else went mainly to the countries of the European Union and Turkey.

“If we withdraw from this agreement in case of Ukraine’s violation of its obligations, we will supply the entire volume that has been delivered from the territory of Ukraine to the poorest countries free of charge,” Putin said.

And in 2023 Ukraine will hardly have any grain to export according to this article:

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KYIV, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Ukraine’s winter grain sowing area for the 2023 harvest will unlikely to exceed 2 million hectares and the harvest could fall by at least 50%, the head of a large Ukrainian agriculture company was quoted as saying on Thursday.

The pace of sowing winter wheat in Ukraine for the 2023 harvest is three times lower than last year, according to data provided by the agriculture ministry this week.

“The harvest of early grains (mostly wheat and barley) will be 50-70% less (in 2023 versus 2022). In fact, we will cover our own needs, but not everything will be so rosy with exports,” he added.


Ukraine consumes around 7 million tonnes of wheat and up to 4 million tonnes of barley per season.

Lissitsa said that a lack of funds for the sowing remains a huge problem for farmers in a situation where when local grain prices fell while cost of inputs rose sharply.

“I think that next year we will have a huge decline in productivity and yields, and at the end of the year we will come out quite beaten: not dead, but badly beaten”, he said.
 

sheogorath

Colonel
Registered Member
Putin is giving Ukraine a second chance, but reserves the right to withdraw again from the grain deal if Ukraine does not fulfill the guarantees it has given:
Dude needs to stop giving them "second chances", given that should the tables be turned, they won't be giving Russia any second chances.


Ukranians recording themselves using ambulances as troop transports, again

 

Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member
We have known for some time that US personnel are in Ukraine in combat operations embedded with Ukrainian units, as 'mercenaries, now it appears that the USG has admitted to having 'boots on the ground' in 'making sure the weapons are accounted for'. This is a slippery slope to sending in more troops in vast numbers.

We can look to the historical example of the Quagmire of Vietnam to see how mission creep affected US Policymakers; like current war profiteers in Congress/USG, the 'bean counters' of R. McNamara considered Vietnam 'not much of a war, but the only war we've got'. And like the USG of the 60s who wanted to re-assert their power and authority after Korea, the current USG needs to re-assert its authority in the face of its decline against a rising China and the debacle of Afghanistan.

However, i don't believe the USG will start actively sending in its own troops on the order of The Surge in Iraq 2006- this was too politically unpopular even back in the 60s-70s when americans were drafted. The current USG prefers to force its allies to carry the burden, as President Obama put it 'lead from behind'; we would be far more likely to see the Balts and Finland instigating conflict with Russia eg Finland putting nukes aimed at Russia on its soil, with the ultimate aim of overextending Russian forces and forcing Moscow itself to implement a far more comprehensive draft.

Throughout all of this, i don't see the USG invoking Article V; yes, they want war with Russia but they don't want nuclear war; i hypothesise that given the Elite Capture by the US (Finnish PM Sanna Marin is a WEF alumni), the aim will be to create many, many, more Ukraines out of the Baltics and Finland, supplied with US arms (to US profit) and then when Russia is sufficiently weakened, the US will performatively reluctantly claim 'we can no longer ignore the Russia threat', invoke Article V and will ride in like 1917 again, to declare victory.
 

drowingfish

Senior Member
Registered Member
Those drone boats were made to be low observable including in the IR spectrum so I sorta can't really give the Russian navy that much of a hard time. It really is very difficult to hit a fast moving small boat.


Just imagine trying to take out a boat that you have no idea is getting near you and has a lower profile than these practice target boats.

US, Chinese and all the big navies are likely saying oh crap this is just another headache to worry about.
in a way though the US is no stranger to this threat, as it is quite similar to the USS Cole attack.
 

BMUFL

Junior Member
Registered Member
[The attack] is quite similar to the USS Cole attack.
Well, not sure about the Russian RoE here, but in USS Cole attack, regardless of the observablility of the attackers, RoE prevented them from even defending themselves (because there weren't "being shot at"). So, it's not quite the same thing.
 

sheogorath

Colonel
Registered Member
in a way though the US is no stranger to this threat, as it is quite similar to the USS Cole attack.
Nowadays a cargo ship will do, they'll just ram themselves right into it.

NYT opinion piece on why Ukraine and Russia should be forced to negotiate. Basically "Ukraine is totally winning right now, but winning too much might risk an all-out war with NATO so the US really needs to reign in Ukraine and even if we let Russia keep Donbas and Crimea, Russia lost anyway".

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