The War in the Ukraine

PMC "Wagner" spoke in detail about the real situation in some sectors of the Ukrainian front. According to the soldiers, do not expect easy fighting in Ukraine, do not underestimate the enemy. Despite this, the Wagner soldiers manage to advance even when the number of Ukrainian troops is 2-3 more. Videos with subtitles


Two episodes of fighting in Ukraine filmed by Ukrainian soldiers. In the first part of the video, soldiers make a sortie in mobile groups on Humvee armored vehicles, you can see that one of them is hit. In the second episode, a Ukrainian tank is blown up by two mines and ambushed, according to the second version of the events of this episode, the soldiers dismounted fire into the void, as at the end they ask where the enemy is.


The Russian crew of an infantry fighting vehicle rescued the crew of another vehicle in Ukraine under enemy fire. At the time of the evacuation, the armored vehicle was hit, presumably by the Javelin ATGM, since the blow was from above, despite the damage, the BMP was able to leave the battlefield and evacuate people.

The use by Ukrainian soldiers of the famous in quotation marks M120-15 Molot mortar. The 120 mm Ukrainian M120-15 mortar manufactured by the Mayak plant turned out to be very unsuccessful, but it was accepted into service anyway. During its use from 2016 to 2021, as a result of explosions of Molot mortars, more than 20 Ukrainian soldiers died and about 45 more were injured, some called it cursed. The mortar has a mass of 210 kg and a firing range of 7100 m, a rate of fire of up to 15 rounds per minute, a mortar crew of 5 people.


Episode of the battle in Ukraine. A Ukrainian mobile group in a Hummer found a damaged Russian truck. After trying to check the car, they heard the sounds of Russian armored vehicles and tried to drive away, while the car was attacked by the Russian army.


Russian PMC Wagner video training assault groups. The exercise is called the "Confidence Test" since during the training of soldiers fire from military weapons is fired.

It looks like the Crimean Bridge has been hit. Any thoughts on how the Ukrainians pulled this one off?

lucretius said:

It looks like the Crimean Bridge has been hit. Any thoughts on how the Ukrainians pulled this one off?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578595663126069248

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578599931363065857

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How do you think Nord Stream happened?

My apologies for getting back to you so slowly. You asked a good question and deserve an honest answer.

FairAndUnbiased said:

It truly confuses me because to an outsider it looks like Ukrainians are just fighting for the regime and their regime has let them down literally every day since 1991. if their regime did not let them down, then how come Ukraine's population has declined by over 10 million even pre-war from 50 million to 40 million, and now declined during the war by another 10 million including 2 million fleeing to Russia proper?

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Why are the Ukrainians fighting for the regime in Kiev? From what I have heard, they are not. They are fighting for their homes. If someone kicks in your door and you have the opportunity to fight, what would you do? I know what Ukrainians would do. In fact, I don't just 'know' it: we can see it in the war.

They are fighting for their own culture. Ukrainians consume Russophonic media and what is said on TV? The 'popular' shows are saying the Ukrainians do not have a distinct culture or language. Even when blocked by Kiev, the TV shows are online. Those shows may help hype up the Russians, but it also enrages Ukrainians.

The Ukrainians see their future in Brussels, not Moscow. Ukrainians see Moscow as denying their precieved path to a better future.

Finally, Ukrainians are fighting because they feel betrayed. Russia was their brother country. Russia promised to respect the Ukrainian borders. So many Ukrainians are intermarried with Russian families. From the Ukrainian point of view, 2014 and even more so now, this is the Biblical story of Cain and Abel, the so-called first murder where a jealous brother killed another. Except in this version, Cain has not succeeded in killing Abel and now Ukrainians have the wrath of god burning within them.

That rage I've brought up several times. That burning rage is enough to power this war for years. I cannot highlight this enough.

Is it about Kiev? No, but Zelensky has been doing a fantastic job of winning the info war. Ukrainians are far too cynical to call him Churchillian[1], but you might still sniff a whiff of the proverbial cigar smoke all the same. The longer the war goes on and the more successful Ukraine is, the stronger the parallel will be seen.

So, predictions!

The Ukrainians will take the right bank of the Dniepr and the city of Kherson by the end of November, maybe even the end of October.

The Ukrainians will push into Lugansk to flank Kreminna by going for Svatove and Staroblisk. This cuts the railways and supply from the north. They will continue east to Bilovodosk and then swing south towards Lugansk, cutting off the rail logistics as they go.

I would not expect a Zaporizhia offensive until Kherson is secured, troops are rested and moved into position. This would probably be a winter offensive if it happens.

After that all depends if the Russians can get their shbt together.

1. Note: the brits threw Churchill out when they grew tired of him. He was actually a real nasty piece of work himself. I expect the Ukrainians will toss Zelensky out when they are tired of him as well.

Closer look at Crimean bridge.


Well I guess US has no more reason to give Ukraine ATACMS since that was the whole point of Ukraine ever receiving them.

How it was attacked is bewildering since that bridge must be heavily secured, right? Truck bomb? Special Forces carrying enough TNT?

Or some drone boats similar to the ones that washed up in Crimea couple weeks ago? Wow I'm a little surprised the bridge got hit without missiles.

FairAndUnbiased said:

How do you think Nord Stream happened?

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Yes, but what bridge defense doing?

Sorry. Couldn't help myself.

Looks like a pretty hard hit:

SolarWarden said:

Closer look at Crimean bridge.
View attachment 98980

Well I guess US has no more reason to give Ukraine ATACMS since that was the whole point of Ukraine ever receiving them.

How it was attacked is bewildering since that bridge must be heavily secured, right? Truck bomb? Special Forces carrying enough TNT?

Or some drone boats similar to the ones that washed up in Crimea couple weeks ago? Wow I'm a little surprised the bridge got hit without missiles.

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Oh boy. Never mind what I said this telegram video sounds like a missile hit.

It's cliche I know but it looks like this was just escalated.

It doesn't look like someone hit it with a missile or anything, potentially underwater sabotage? The damage seems too severe to be from a missile strike alone.

tankphobia said:

It doesn't look like someone hit it with a missile or anything, potentially underwater sabotage? The damage seems too severe to be from a missile strike alone.

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Might actually be a missile. The video below purports to be dashcam of the event (twitter version of the telegram above):