I think that once Russia determined that this is going to be a war of attrition, and especially after they took Lysychansk, they have decided to slow down the tempo of the war. This is reflected on how slowly they made any progress. Slowing down the tempo of the war has the following benefits,
1. your burn rate goes down. If the rest of the frontlines are just static and you focus your energy in a few areas, the amount of cannons and ammo goes down. There were signs that they were running low in cannon shells.
2. This further increases the kill/dead ratio. If you are willing to take a long time and just bombard the hell out of the the enemy positions, the other side suffers all the casualties and when you move into the ruins, there will be very little resistance so your casualties are quite low. I would not be surprised if there is a 10/1 kill/dead ratio in this type of warfare.
3. This reduce the equipment usage since you are spending most of your time dug in and only move when there is very little resistance.
The longer the war, the worse the economic situation for Ukraine and Western Europe. This is the key. Putin is hoping that the economic situation will deteriorate to a point that Western Europe will vote out their pro-war government and will cease support for Ukraine. If support also slows as the senate change hands in the U.S., that will be a bonus.
The counter-offensive disrupted this plan. If anything, the kill/dead ratio is worse for Russia for the counter-offensive because the Ukrainians finally got a chance to engage the Russian side in a close combat. While it is quite bad at 5:1, it is still much better than sitting around getting killed by cannons which you have no answer to. However, the huge equipment loss from this counter-offensive will be irreplaceable. The burn rate for Ukraine is even much less sustainable. If they are able to sustain this offensive for a few months while the Russians continue to retreat, they might get somewhere and take land that is more strategic. For example, if they pushed the Russians to the East of the Dnipro River by taking all of Kherson, then they can negotiate some sort of truce since it will be very hard for the Russians to cross the Dnipro river again. Somehow I highly doubt the Russians will allow this to happen. Taking a city the size of Kherson is quite difficult, especially you just have a few tanks and a bunch of civilian vehicles.
Once the Ukrainians burn through their stash of equipment, they will leave themselves dangerously exposed to a Russian offensive to come later.
Also I think the Russians will add more troops to make the lines less vulnerable. With enough troops and equipment, the Ukrainians can still breach it at the weak points, but the cost will be significantly higher. When the Russians take new territories later, they will spend more time fortifying a defensive line that is easier to hold to reduce the opportunity for the Ukrainian side. The Russians want to go back to the slow grinding type of warfare which have the above advantages for them.
It is a long war. Buckle your seatbelts. much more is still to come.
