The War in the Ukraine

xypher said:

It is not about cheap Russian gas, it is about keeping the inflationary pressure on Western economies - in addition to the debt-driven fire they started themselves, the energy prices are also piling on top. Moreover, Europe is currently deindustrializing with power hungry manufacturing fleeing to the US and China, which will further weaken them. It is essentially a win-win - prolonged war leads to both weakened Europe and Russia, the former will diminish as a threat due to increased unrest caused by the deep recession that is looming over Europe while the latter will be more and more dependent on China because they burned bridges with the West & also sustained economic damage. Russia's value to China won't increase or diminish based on the outcomes of war - they will still hold the nuclear arsenal and they will still sell energy, so it literally does not matter.

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People still think Europe is going to collapse or meaingfully deindustrialize as a result of this war. It won't.

This year, they need to further reduce their energy demand by around 15%. And its going to be tough for the next 2 years, no question. But in the long term, Europe will never allow itself to be so dependent on Russia again. Russia has no more cards to play in Europe, with its industries, technology, economy, falling further behind. It is Russia that is at major risk of De-Industrializing.

And again, a significantly weakened Russia is not in China's interest. You want to form a bloc of strong nations to match/counter the Western bloc, not a bunch of failed states.

Hasn’t the west just about run out of weapons they can send? When that stops, won’t Russia have the advantage?

"There was a huge crater in the town. This was not HIMARS, not Hurricane, not Tornado, but an aviation bomb! And the guys said that the Ukrainian aviation was active in Liman."

"Then, after the interview, one of the officers took me aside and said: “The situation is very bad, we have no connection with the 208 battalion, the control point of the unit of the Russian Ministry of Defense disappeared somewhere, no communications or interaction.”

Aviation, pilots called the commandant’s regiment on the phone and said: “Guys, where should we hit?” And they replied: “We don’t know how to formulate targets for instructions, there is neither air support controller nor artillery spotter.”

A pretty damning indictment of Russian capabilities if true...

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"There was a huge crater in the town. This was not HIMARS, not Hurricane, not Tornado, but an aviation bomb! And the guys said that the Ukrainian aviation was active in Liman."

"Then, after the interview, one of the officers took me aside and said: “The situation is very bad, we have no connection with the 208 battalion, the control point of the unit of the Russian Ministry of Defense disappeared somewhere, no communications or interaction.”

Aviation, pilots called the commandant’s regiment on the phone and said: “Guys, where should we hit?” And they replied: “We don’t know how to formulate targets for instructions, there is neither air support controller nor artillery spotter.”

A pretty damning indictment of Russian capabilities if true...

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If true, is this due to superior NATO electronic warfare or just poor organization ok Russia's part with lack of man power ?

I heard that in the Russian army, if you are a volunteer you can break your contract at any time and leave if there is no state of war. Is this true? It would explain why the Russians have been so short on men.

In Russia, large-scale exercises and firing at firing ranges began. Before being sent to Donbass, mobilized soldiers practice firing small arms, AGS-17, RPG-7 grenade launchers, heavy machine guns and Dragunov sniper rifles


The first Ukrainian corvette "Hetman Ivan Mazepa" was launched in Turkey. The ship was built according to the project of Turkish Ada-class anti-submarine corvettes. The ship is to become part of the Ukrainian fleet in 2024, but the deadlines may shift, the ship for equipping and installing weapons should be completed in Ukraine, but there is no such possibility now, no one has answered this question yet.

Estimated armament of the ship, 4 Harpoon anti-ship missiles, VL MICA air defense systems, 76-mm OTO Melara Super Rapid and 35-mm Millennium artillery mounts. as well as two machine-gun installations with a caliber of 12.7 mm. Anti-submarine armament will consist of two 324-mm torpedo tubes. The ship has a speed of up to 29 knots with a cruising range of 3,500 nautical miles, an autonomy of 10 days, with a supply of 21 days. Possibly an S-70B Seahawk helicopter.


The M-109A5OE self-propelled howitzer was seen on the video of one of the soldiers of Ukraine, let's take a closer look at it. Howitzers M-109A5OE were previously delivered to Ukraine in the amount of 6 pieces by Latvia, which, in turn, bought them from Austria at a price of 140 thousand euros per piece. The M-109A5OE howitzer is a modernized version of the American M109 self-propelled guns, which was produced from 1962 to 2003 and has also been modernized many times. The American M109 self-propelled guns became the base self-propelled guns of many NATO armies in various modifications. The firing range of a howitzer with a standard projectile is 22 km, an active-reactive projectile is 30 km, self-propelled guns can fire GPS-guided projectiles. The vehicle is protected by rolled aluminum armor and has a crew of 6 people. Howitzer maximum speed - 56 km / h, cruising range - 350 km


Head-to-head tank battle footage in Ukraine. In the video, the Ukrainian T-64BV tank, having reloaded, moves forward to the closest possible distance, where it is struck by the Russian T-80BV tank of the Marine Corps units of the Pacific Fleet. These are the first shots where Russian and Ukrainian tanks are fighting head-on at a minimum distance.


One against four, rare footage of close combat in Ukraine. In the video, one of the Russian soldiers came into close combat against four soldiers of the Ukrainian army.

Abominable said:

I heard that in the Russian army, if you are a volunteer you can break your contract at any time and leave if there is no state of war. Is this true? It would explain why the Russians have been so short on men.

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Alexander had a video just now on that topic. Some people are speculating that the Russians who left back in August may have been due to their contract expiring and they refused to extend it by another 6 months. Hardly a surprise. Who wants to stay longer then necessary. He also mentioned that apparently, the one who warned of this was the guy who got fired after Kadyrov public statement about his effectiveness.

On the topic of retreating and preserve troop there needs to be a line drawn. If Ukraine attack Kherson itself should Russia just back down with same excuse?

plawolf said:

The Russians have never forgotten this principle and have been focusing on destroying the fighting strength of Ukraine while preserving their own as much as possible.

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This presumes a sufficiently high KDR (kill-death ratio) is enough to win the war without needing to call up low-quality conscripts. The reality is Putin is willing to call low-quality conscripts via partial mobilization at the expense of his KDR ratio. Putin does not want to win via attritional warfare, he wants a quick(er) victory and fast(er) conquest of 4 territories, even if it means decreasing his KDR ratio. It's an acceptable trade-off to lose excess lives to gain more territory in shorter amount of time, presumably due to political, economic, and domestic considerations to avoid excessively prolonging this conflict.