There is something strange and wholly counter intuitive about the events we are seeing on the ground.
If you were to break down the conflict in terms of a separate front for each of the newly incorporated republics and list them from most to least exposed you would write it as thus
Kherson
Zhaphorisia
Donetsk
Lughansk
Kherson - a very long flat front with little but villages and open fields. Its the furthest point in terms of supply, relying on the potential choke point out of Crimea, and the bridges over the Dnieper. It is the most Western of the Fronts and closest to the open Heartland of the Ukraine and the easiest for the Ukraine to reinforce and resupply.
Zhaphorisia - another long front of flat land with not that many large towns in much of the territory. Also mainly dependent on supplies coming out of Crimea. For the Ukrainians this is a front easily reached and resupplied and the depth of the territory to the Sea of Azov is not particularly great, meaning that a strike capable of dividing the Russian territory is feasible.
Donetsk - Highly Urbanised and Fortified, Russian supplies come in direct from the Russian mainland. Same situation for the Ukrainians but very difficult for either side to make rapid advances.
Lughansk - The ideal territory for the Russians to defend. Its hilly, heavily wooded, deep river valleys, good sized towns and very close to the Russian mainland for not only resupply and reinforcements, but also easy long range artillery and aviation support. For the Ukrainains all the opposite is true, stretched lines due to poor road and rail connections, hard terrain to attack and front most adjacent to a very long and wide Russian homeland border.
Yet in reality
Kherson - Russia has stopped a major Ukrainian counter offensive waged against it for over a month, and prepared for over a much longer time beforehand. The Ukrainians were not able to disable the bridges over the Dnieper, there offensives were turned into traps and they have lost massive quantities of men and material for the sake of gaining a few small towns and villages.
Zhaphorisia - Whatever offensive was planned here never had the chance to start. We can only assume that forces intended were redirected elsewhere, presumably to the North for the current ongoing Ukrainian offensive.
Donetsk - No major offensive apparently planned or initiated on this front. hardly a surprise given what the cost would be to achieve a breakthrough in a head on assault.
Lughansk - The scene of a very successful Ukrainian counter offensive, with the Russians retreating eastwards rather than take advantage of the terrain or the proximity of the homeland. The Ukraine has responded by moving all its available and most combat capable units to this front to maintain the pressure and momentum against the failing Russian defense.
Well something here clearly does not add up. How is it that a Russian army that can perform so well in its most vulnerable front suddenly makes every tactical and operational mistake on the front that should be the most secure and easy to defend.
Sometimes things are exactly what they seem and no amount of cope or wishful thinking will change that.
On the other hand I cannot discount how this is such an almost ludicrous reversal of outcome, that I cannot but start to speculate about the circumstances that have persuaded the Ukrainians to commit there most combat capable units to a front which is potentially the most perilous for them.....
So Massive Foul up or Cunning Trap?
You tell me.....
If you were to break down the conflict in terms of a separate front for each of the newly incorporated republics and list them from most to least exposed you would write it as thus
Kherson
Zhaphorisia
Donetsk
Lughansk
Kherson - a very long flat front with little but villages and open fields. Its the furthest point in terms of supply, relying on the potential choke point out of Crimea, and the bridges over the Dnieper. It is the most Western of the Fronts and closest to the open Heartland of the Ukraine and the easiest for the Ukraine to reinforce and resupply.
Zhaphorisia - another long front of flat land with not that many large towns in much of the territory. Also mainly dependent on supplies coming out of Crimea. For the Ukrainians this is a front easily reached and resupplied and the depth of the territory to the Sea of Azov is not particularly great, meaning that a strike capable of dividing the Russian territory is feasible.
Donetsk - Highly Urbanised and Fortified, Russian supplies come in direct from the Russian mainland. Same situation for the Ukrainians but very difficult for either side to make rapid advances.
Lughansk - The ideal territory for the Russians to defend. Its hilly, heavily wooded, deep river valleys, good sized towns and very close to the Russian mainland for not only resupply and reinforcements, but also easy long range artillery and aviation support. For the Ukrainains all the opposite is true, stretched lines due to poor road and rail connections, hard terrain to attack and front most adjacent to a very long and wide Russian homeland border.
Yet in reality
Kherson - Russia has stopped a major Ukrainian counter offensive waged against it for over a month, and prepared for over a much longer time beforehand. The Ukrainians were not able to disable the bridges over the Dnieper, there offensives were turned into traps and they have lost massive quantities of men and material for the sake of gaining a few small towns and villages.
Zhaphorisia - Whatever offensive was planned here never had the chance to start. We can only assume that forces intended were redirected elsewhere, presumably to the North for the current ongoing Ukrainian offensive.
Donetsk - No major offensive apparently planned or initiated on this front. hardly a surprise given what the cost would be to achieve a breakthrough in a head on assault.
Lughansk - The scene of a very successful Ukrainian counter offensive, with the Russians retreating eastwards rather than take advantage of the terrain or the proximity of the homeland. The Ukraine has responded by moving all its available and most combat capable units to this front to maintain the pressure and momentum against the failing Russian defense.
Well something here clearly does not add up. How is it that a Russian army that can perform so well in its most vulnerable front suddenly makes every tactical and operational mistake on the front that should be the most secure and easy to defend.
Sometimes things are exactly what they seem and no amount of cope or wishful thinking will change that.
On the other hand I cannot discount how this is such an almost ludicrous reversal of outcome, that I cannot but start to speculate about the circumstances that have persuaded the Ukrainians to commit there most combat capable units to a front which is potentially the most perilous for them.....
So Massive Foul up or Cunning Trap?
You tell me.....
