The War in the Ukraine

Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Biscuits said:
If Russia sent a ton of conscripts on day 1, sure, they might have won instantly and then occupied Ukraine completely.But if they fail or get bogged down, then there is no way to replenish the army, and no way out aside from nukes.
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Unless Russia sent its entire 33 million reservists and non-reservists able-bodied men into battle on day 1, I don't see how Russia would exhaust its entire conscript supply and resort to nukes. The math doesn't check out.

Also others mentioned, it's a partial mobilization, only a fraction of the 2 million reserves are called up. (Not even touching the 31 million non-reservists able-bodied men).
 
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Pmichael

Junior Member
The potential cauldron of Lyman just shows once again that Ukrainians know everything that is happening on the field. The American intel has better knowledge about Russian troop movement than the Russians have themselves. So anytime they prepare a counter attack that is too much to handle for the advancing force, the Ukraine can simply retreat or use another attack vector.
 
sheogorath

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Pmichael said:
The potential cauldron of Lyman just shows once again that Ukrainians know everything that is happening on the field. The American intel has better knowledge about Russian troop movement than the Russians have themselves. So anytime they prepare a counter attack that is too much to handle for the advancing force, the Ukraine can simply retreat or use another attack vector.
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Calling Lyman a cauldron just yet is a bit optimistic. On the other hand, the fact that the Ukranians have been at it for a while now despite this all-seeing knowledge and keep getting repelled shows they probably wasted most of their manpower in the initial offensive.

There were several drones attack in Odessa today, as pointed out the Shahid-136 are extremely noisy which makes it surprising the Ukranians are complaining that much about them. But judging by this video, the warhead is quite powerful for its size.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573302125693931525
 
B

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
Unless Russia sent its entire 33 million reservists and non-reservists able-bodied men into battle on day 1, I don't see how Russia would exhaust its entire conscript supply and resort to nukes. The math doesn't check out.

Also others mentioned, it's a partial mobilization, only a fraction of the 2 million reserves are called up. (Not even touching the 31 million non-reservists able-bodied men).
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Russia doesn't have weapons to form mechanized and armored divisions for all their reserves at once.

At most you're likely talking about 2-3 million men after a while of mobilization. More than that and they will start to be light infantry of similar quality as Ukraine territorial forces.

But attacking with full force on Feb 24 would mean even less men, around 900k fully equipped reservists + active duty vs 800k Ukraine reservists + active duty.

In a decisive battle of 900k vs 800k, even if Russia has tech advantage, air superiority or what not, there's a lot that could go wrong. And if Russia lost there, then the next wave will have worse equipment and terrible morale, making them unable to achieve what the first group couldn't. Of course, if Russia won the initial battle, then they get to lord over NATO that they crushed Ukraine in 3 weeks. But in any clash, there is an element of risk.
 
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drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
Biscuits said:
Russia doesn't have weapons to form mechanized and armored divisions for all their reserves at once.

At most you're likely talking about 2-3 million men after a while of mobilization. More than that and they will start to be light infantry of similar quality as Ukraine territorial forces.

But attacking with full force on Feb 24 would mean even less men, around 900k fully equipped reservists + active duty vs 800k Ukraine reservists + active duty.

In a decisive battle of 900k vs 800k, even if Russia has tech advantage, air superiority or what not, there's a lot that could go wrong. And if Russia lost there, then the next wave will have worse equipment and terrible morale, making them unable to achieve what the first group couldn't. Of course, if Russia won the initial battle, then they get to lord over NATO that they crushed Ukraine in 3 weeks. But in any clash, there is an element of risk.
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i think russia at this point needs just infantry more so than mechanized forces. they will be on the defensive for a while, which will require a lot of grunt work of digging trenches and building camouflage. if/when the line solidifies towards the end of the year they can start thinking about a winter offensive.
 
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Janiz

Senior Member
obj 705A said:
As usual people are using old videos falsely claiming they show long lines of cars running away from Russia after the mobilization. it is surprising to see that out of all the media, the AP is exposing and debunking these videos.
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Yeah. Indeed, it's not Finland. There's a ton of videos from other borders with countries that are much easier to escape to. Those are: Kazakhstan, Georgia and Mongolia. Anyone who can is using those borders to leave Russia as quickly as possible. Not Estonia or Finland.

Debunk those.
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
sheogorath said:
Calling Lyman a cauldron just yet is a bit optimistic. On the other hand, the fact that the Ukranians have been at it for a while now despite this all-seeing knowledge and keep getting repelled shows they probably wasted most of their manpower in the initial offensive.

There were several drones attack in Odessa today, as pointed out the Shahid-136 are extremely noisy which makes it surprising the Ukranians are complaining that much about them. But judging by this video, the warhead is quite powerful for its size.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573302125693931525
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The Iranian drones are making quite a difference when it comes to hitting stuff since Russia own drone industry is lacking and is cheaper than missiles. On an off topic note, I do wonder how hard the PLA could utilize kamikaze drones on ROC military assets since China drone industry is vastly larger.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
FriedButter said:
The Iranian drones are making quite a difference when it comes to hitting stuff since Russia own drone industry is lacking and is cheaper than missiles. On an off topic note, I do wonder how hard the PLA could utilize kamikaze drones on ROC military assets since China drone industry is vastly larger.
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Judging from the efficacy (or lack of) of Taiwanese air defense against civilian drones in Kinmen it might be cheaper and more effective to pull a Ukraine and modify fixed wing drones from AliExpress to suicide drones.
 
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