it seems like dragging this on is the strategy, though counterintuitive because it is never a good thing to drag on military operations. putin seems to think that he can outlast the west given the current economic and political climate. there are a few important junctions that he is looking at:
1. europe not being able to survive this winter. it might have enough gas to keep residents somewhat warm but that will likely come at the cost of shutting down a lot of its factories, leading to economic ruin.
2. US stagflation, a byproduct of the energy price and europe's misfortune. putin wants to see if persistent inflation and reduced trade with europe would push US economy into a recession, which in turn would lead to a biden defeat in the midterms and a divided political landscape. he can then look further out to trump's return (which i think is what he is holding out the greatest hope for)
3. all of the above leading to a rise of nationalism and fragmentation in western society, which tends to favor russia (e.g. lepen).
4. something breaks somewhere else and distracts the west from ukraine. pelosi's trip to taiwan and the subsequent tension shows that it is not beyond the realm of possibility.
i think some of these hopes are legitimate and others are misplaced. putin runs the risk of underestimating how much pain the west can take, and how much patience china has irt taiwan.
