The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Why trade nuclear incident with nuclear apocalypse?
They talk about that 24/7 to gather their population support for sending another billion of taxes to Ukraine and to distracted from their issues at home.
it's not like they need popular support that much though, they've been sending financial and military aid without much internal opposition since the beginning of the war.
I know that as war drags on and winter draws closer these governments might feel pressured to make a deal to end the war, but if the us want it to continue they'll toe the line
They're talking about it to prepare the populace for the day Russia inevitably and of course for some, "illegally" (in some alternate universe) idles the station to prevent a nuclear disaster. Basically Russia eeeevil for doing what it can to prevent Ukrainian militants from unleashing a radiological disaster in Europe.
Ukraine exports electricity to Europe, winter is just on the horizon, and a shut down is going to squeeze European energy markets even further than the no gas situation. Pretty much a win win for Russia to shut it down.
Seems Russians have more potential to play ball in the wests economic warfare game than anyone really considered when pushing Ukraine towards this conflict.
It's not NATO asking Ukraine to bombing nuclear power plants. How would they benefit from a radioactive cloud going across Europe again? Russia could retaliate against nuclear power plants controlled by Ukraine, they could even fire a radiological bomb against a country like Poland and blame the Ukrainians.
It's very much Ukraine doing this. They want to escalate this war as much as possible. Or they're just a low IQ people that doesn't understand the dangers in doing what their doing.
The war will continue till all of Ukraine is controlled by Russia, from the east all the way to Lviv, there is no other option.
a deal is simply not possible, because any land in the east that falls under Russian control will become part of Russia and since any deal has to include Ukraine giving up land then a deal can never happen because if Zelensky dares to give up land then the far right Ukrainian militias will consider him a traitor and execute him publicly.
As long as Russia controls Ukrainian land then Ukraine will continue fighting, and as long as Russian soldiers are coming under attack they have no option but to attack as well till the enemy is defeated. So it's gonna be one long painful war for Russia, as for what will happen to Ukraine.. well let's just say the battle in Mariupol will look like a picnic once the battle for major cities like Kharkov and Kiev begin.
The eastern regions will become part of Russia while the rest of Ukraine will remain an "independent" state ruled by a pro Moscow government.
Don't be naive. NATO is running the military of Ukraine. This war has harmed NATO, Russia and Ukraine, yet NATO do not want this to end. The ones calling the shots in NATO is the U.S. If there are nuclear fallouts in Europe, that is a price we the U.S. are willing to pay in exchange for Russia having to clean up another Chernobyl. The Europeans, aside from stopping their aid to Ukraine, really have very little say on this war.
I am not disputing this, I agree that the shelling was carried out by ukrainian forces.
the scenario I was talking about is something like this:
- winter is coming, gas prices are sky-high, there's no end in sight
- european countries are getting antsy so they're pressuring washington to find a way to end the hostilities
- us and allies come up with the plan to shell the nuclear plant and blame the russians for it
- "you gotta let the iaea assess the damages you caused by shelling the plant", "you have to demilitarise the area", you gotta do this, you gotta do that
- if you don't, we nato might have to intervene cause we cannot risk a nuclear disaster on the continent
- force russia to sit down at the negotiating table
I'm not saying this is what's happening, I was asking if other members find this plausible.
anyway, seems
In this instance no.
My reading is that this is due to to two related things:
1) The loss of the power that the Plant produces and
2) The upcoming referendums in both Kherson and Zaporizhzhia
You only had to read the Ukrainian response to the prospect of Russia disconnecting the station from the Ukrainian grid and connecting it to the Russian "It will take them months to lay sufficient cables for that distance"
This is a purely political response indicating that the cables would need to bypass the existing power network in the Russian controlled areas of Ukraine and only be able to connect once it reached the International borders.
Likewise the Russian statement that there will be no disruption to supply to the Ukraine as long as the power is paid for is equally instructive.
Of course it is highly likely that after the Referendums in due in September that the Zaporizhia plant will be within Russia itself and so connection to "the Russian power grid" a mere technicality.
Equally instructive are the Ukrainian calls for the Russians to remove their forces from the plant (seems a shame to disrupt their clearly favourite sport of shelling each other) and to "remove all the mines laid in its vicinity"
If this is not a clear indication that they want to retake the station and need the power themselves, I don't know what is.
We could speculate as to whether or not the Ukrainian army would use possession of the site as a operational military beachhead to try and expand further into the Russian held territory south of the Dnieper but it would be moot, as clearly such a withdrawal by the Russians is not going to happen and this ultimately becomes just another PR stunt, following in the footsteps of the grain from Odessa.
Speaking about Grain from Odessa, I keep reading that all the ships that have left with grain cargoes have all been bound for Western/European ports and that none have gone to the Middle East or Africa to feed the millions facing starvation which was at the heart of the PR campaign to get the port opened again.
If anyone has any hard facts on this, I would be very grateful.