The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
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Recent southfront updates: Discuss the recent EU candidacy of Ukraine and the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU which they said wouldn't happen at any time
A number of people have speculated on the next moves for Russia. Here I would like to take a stab at this.
Before I speculate, let's assign the goals of the Russian war against Ukraine. The War on Ukraine is a Russian counter-attack after NATO crossed one too many redlines with no regard for Russian interests and security concerns. NATO didn't have to expand all the way to Ukraine. Out of past momentum and inattentiveness, NATO assume incorrectly that Russia would not dare to attack Ukraine. This war, Russia must defeat NATO in the country that used to be Ukraine.
To defeat NATO, Russia must
1. Change the perception and the psyche of all Ukrainians, pro or against Russia. They must accept that no one, including NATO, however hard they have tried, can save them from Russian arm forces. This can only happen if Ukraine is defeated decisively after a prolong war with Russia, notwithstanding all the help that NATO has or will send. This change of psyche will turn the Ukrainians against those who caused them to go to war in the first place. It will turn them against NATO and the current Ukrainian government.
2. Change the perception and the psyche of other Eastern European countries like Lithuania so that they too, realize that NATO cannot stop the Russians from taking over their country. This will happen after Russia successfully conquer Ukraine.
3. Conquer and incorporate regions that are pro-Russia or indifferent.
4. Conquer and destroy regions that are anti-Russia.
5. Corollary to 4. above, drive out as many Ukrainians that are anti-Russia and send them packing to the West. repopulate Ukraine with more pro-Russian Ukrainians
A few side benefits that may follow and is nice to have,
6. Change the European government to a less anti-Russian one.
7. Weaken the Western European countries so Eastern Europe is more isolated and must fend for themselves.
8. Since relationship is soured with Europe, it would allow Putin a freer hand to re-orient the Russian economy towards the East.
So here is what I expect
Phase2, Conquering Donbass. This is ongoing. It will be completed when Kramatorsk grouping is destroyed.
Phase3, Southern Big Cities, straighten out the frontline as much as possible and slowly push towards multiple cities, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv. Let the Ukrainians bring their troops all the way across the country to fight the Russian army that is near the supply line and have a straight frontline. Once one of these cities buckle, send in the reserve force to attack it and conquer.
Phase4, Southwest Ukraine, Once all the cities in Phase3 is done, push north in a single broad front, avoid but surround Odesa, and push Northward from both sides of the Dnipro river, taking cities like Dnipro and Kremenchuk along the way.
Phase5, Zumy and rest of Eastern Ukraine
Phase6, Kiev
Phase7. Northwest Ukraine, Send an expeditionary force to fight and destroy what remains of Northwestern Ukraine, do not conquer it, and encourage all the anti-Russian Ukrainians to go there. Do not declare ceasefire and wait until most of these move on to Poland and beyond. Since no industry is possible after everything is broken, most will choose to move away once they arrive here from other parts of Ukraine. The Russians can either keep this as a buffer, or if they feel that NATO is still trying to come into this region, conquer it once it is de-populated.
Before I speculate, let's assign the goals of the Russian war against Ukraine. The War on Ukraine is a Russian counter-attack after NATO crossed one too many redlines with no regard for Russian interests and security concerns. NATO didn't have to expand all the way to Ukraine. Out of past momentum and inattentiveness, NATO assume incorrectly that Russia would not dare to attack Ukraine. This war, Russia must defeat NATO in the country that used to be Ukraine.
To defeat NATO, Russia must
1. Change the perception and the psyche of all Ukrainians, pro or against Russia. They must accept that no one, including NATO, however hard they have tried, can save them from Russian arm forces. This can only happen if Ukraine is defeated decisively after a prolong war with Russia, notwithstanding all the help that NATO has or will send. This change of psyche will turn the Ukrainians against those who caused them to go to war in the first place. It will turn them against NATO and the current Ukrainian government.
2. Change the perception and the psyche of other Eastern European countries like Lithuania so that they too, realize that NATO cannot stop the Russians from taking over their country. This will happen after Russia successfully conquer Ukraine.
3. Conquer and incorporate regions that are pro-Russia or indifferent.
4. Conquer and destroy regions that are anti-Russia.
5. Corollary to 4. above, drive out as many Ukrainians that are anti-Russia and send them packing to the West. repopulate Ukraine with more pro-Russian Ukrainians
A few side benefits that may follow and is nice to have,
6. Change the European government to a less anti-Russian one.
7. Weaken the Western European countries so Eastern Europe is more isolated and must fend for themselves.
8. Since relationship is soured with Europe, it would allow Putin a freer hand to re-orient the Russian economy towards the East.
So here is what I expect
Phase2, Conquering Donbass. This is ongoing. It will be completed when Kramatorsk grouping is destroyed.
Phase3, Southern Big Cities, straighten out the frontline as much as possible and slowly push towards multiple cities, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv. Let the Ukrainians bring their troops all the way across the country to fight the Russian army that is near the supply line and have a straight frontline. Once one of these cities buckle, send in the reserve force to attack it and conquer.
Phase4, Southwest Ukraine, Once all the cities in Phase3 is done, push north in a single broad front, avoid but surround Odesa, and push Northward from both sides of the Dnipro river, taking cities like Dnipro and Kremenchuk along the way.
Phase5, Zumy and rest of Eastern Ukraine
Phase6, Kiev
Phase7. Northwest Ukraine, Send an expeditionary force to fight and destroy what remains of Northwestern Ukraine, do not conquer it, and encourage all the anti-Russian Ukrainians to go there. Do not declare ceasefire and wait until most of these move on to Poland and beyond. Since no industry is possible after everything is broken, most will choose to move away once they arrive here from other parts of Ukraine. The Russians can either keep this as a buffer, or if they feel that NATO is still trying to come into this region, conquer it once it is de-populated.
This could have ended as a frozen conflict. Similar to Georgia. But the fact NATO keeps supplying weapons to Ukraine makes anything other than the overthrow of the Ukrainian state untenable given the initial mission statements made by Russia at the start of the conflict. In particular Russia won't allow Ukraine to retain control of the huge tank storage facilities in Kharkov. There are thousands of T-64 tanks there. I just do not see it happening.
Speaking to Foreign Policy (FP) magazine, an unidentified Ukrainian pilot humiliated US Drone by saying, "Ukraine is not Afghanistan so pricey unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can simply operate."
Due to worries that advanced surveillance technology and apparatus will end up in the hands of the Russian military, the US recently shelved a plan to supply Ukraine four MQ-1C "Gray Eagle" unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Due to worries that advanced surveillance technology and apparatus will end up in the hands of the Russian military, the US recently shelved a plan to supply Ukraine four MQ-1C "Gray Eagle" unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
This is bollocks. The US just don't want the propaganda of losing their drone easily to a Tor missile. It would cause sales of this over priced piece of junk to crater. There is little it can do over the TB2. It is heavier than the TB2 but the weapon types and ranges are about the same. Only thing is it can carry the Stinger, so could work as anti-drone capable craft, perhaps even engage helicopters.
No, this would require advanced UCAV aircraft. Russia is a peer competitor. This sort of crap won't stick.
Slovenia has provided Ukraine with M-80A infantry fighting vehicles. An echelon with 35 Yugoslav-made infantry fighting vehicles has already arrived in Ukraine. Even the newest production BMP M-80A is already over 30 years old, the vehicles have been removed from storage, as they were developed in the sixties and finished in the nineties. The Yugoslav BMP M-80A is a reworked copy of the Soviet BMP 1. The armored vehicle is armed with a 20-mm Hispano-Suiza HS.804 automatic cannon and there are problems with this, the cannon requires 20x110 mm shells, Ukraine and Russia do not have them. A 7.62 mm machine gun is paired with a cannon. The infantry fighting vehicle is equipped with ATGM 9M14 "Baby" developed in 1960.
The Ukrainian military has published the first video footage of the use of American M-142 Himars multiple launch rocket systems. The information is inaccurate, since it is impossible to establish the location from where the fire is being fired. The presented video frames show the launches of M-30A1 missiles, with a range of hitting targets up to 70 kilometers. Presumably, two M142 Himars MLRS, captured on video, were deployed in the south of Ukraine, in the Odessa region, while two more launchers are located in the central part of Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Defense showed the combat work of the crews of heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A Solntsepek. After completing the combat mission, the crews of the TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" in the shortest possible time carry out a change of combat positions and promptly reload the installations. There are 24 thermobaric projectiles in the installation package. They are capable of covering an area of up to 40 thousand square meters, while destroying lightly armored vehicles and fortifications. after a 200-kilogram projectile hits the target, the thermobaric mixture dissipates in the air and explodes under enormous pressure, creating a temperature of 3000 degrees. TOS-1A "Sun" is a 2001 modification of the TOS-1 "Pinocchio" system developed back in 1980.
The base of the Kraken battalion, a Ukrainian territorial defense unit created from semi-criminal elements, was destroyed in Kharkiv by Russian artillery strikes.
The Ukrainian military has published the first video footage of the use of American M-142 Himars multiple launch rocket systems. The information is inaccurate, since it is impossible to establish the location from where the fire is being fired. The presented video frames show the launches of M-30A1 missiles, with a range of hitting targets up to 70 kilometers. Presumably, two M142 Himars MLRS, captured on video, were deployed in the south of Ukraine, in the Odessa region, while two more launchers are located in the central part of Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Defense showed the combat work of the crews of heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A Solntsepek. After completing the combat mission, the crews of the TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" in the shortest possible time carry out a change of combat positions and promptly reload the installations. There are 24 thermobaric projectiles in the installation package. They are capable of covering an area of up to 40 thousand square meters, while destroying lightly armored vehicles and fortifications. after a 200-kilogram projectile hits the target, the thermobaric mixture dissipates in the air and explodes under enormous pressure, creating a temperature of 3000 degrees. TOS-1A "Sun" is a 2001 modification of the TOS-1 "Pinocchio" system developed back in 1980.
The base of the Kraken battalion, a Ukrainian territorial defense unit created from semi-criminal elements, was destroyed in Kharkiv by Russian artillery strikes.
