a Sad SAM's decided to turn back to its launching point. Probably a Buk.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
West of Dnepr river(except Nikolaev and Odessa) are also pointless from economic point of view. It is all poor regions of Ukraine that have minimal export.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
It’s always shallow and nonsensical to try to add a price tag to geopolitical issues, especially ones considered to be of potentially existential level security concerns.
To suggest Russia has no interest in taking the western Ukrainian provinces because they are poor and of limited economic worth is just the flip side of the Reddit level arguments that China only cares about Taiwan because of its economic value.
The only time in modern military history where a major power has committed itself fully to a war and not finished the job is during the Korean War, where both sides ground each other into an unbreakable stalemate.
There is currently zero prospects of the Ukrainian military achieving the same feat against the Russians, and the west has already thrown even its sanctions kitchen sink at Russia, so just why would Russia just suddenly stop all by itself?
This self delusional wishful thinking about Russia just stopping instead of taking all the marbles when they are up for grabs is the true cause of endless western ‘intelligence’ obsessions about Russia running out of war supplies from shells to missiles to men to tanks. There is no real indication that Russia is running out of anything it needs for the war effort, but the desire for such copium reports are so strong that of course you are going to get people stepping up and providing intelligence assessments to say just that when there is so much to be gained from doing so personally and basically no downside to being wrong.
Sure, there will be an insurgency issue after the war, but that’s a problem for after the war. And as I have said before, I think Russia will change how it conducts itself during the latter phases of the war, once they are deep in hostile territory, that will probably vastly mitigate this potential insurgency threat while also massively increasing the costs for NATO and the EU.
Basically, expect them to take the gloves off when the Ukrainian military holes up in population centres in areas that are overwhelmingly anti-Russian. They will do so consistently and maybe even deliberately by trapping Ukrainian military forces in population centres to give them the pretext needed to bomb and shell those population centres off the map. Drive all the hostile population progressively west and out of Ukrainian and the insurgency problem basically solves itself.
To suggest Russia has no interest in taking the western Ukrainian provinces because they are poor and of limited economic worth is just the flip side of the Reddit level arguments that China only cares about Taiwan because of its economic value.
The only time in modern military history where a major power has committed itself fully to a war and not finished the job is during the Korean War, where both sides ground each other into an unbreakable stalemate.
There is currently zero prospects of the Ukrainian military achieving the same feat against the Russians, and the west has already thrown even its sanctions kitchen sink at Russia, so just why would Russia just suddenly stop all by itself?
This self delusional wishful thinking about Russia just stopping instead of taking all the marbles when they are up for grabs is the true cause of endless western ‘intelligence’ obsessions about Russia running out of war supplies from shells to missiles to men to tanks. There is no real indication that Russia is running out of anything it needs for the war effort, but the desire for such copium reports are so strong that of course you are going to get people stepping up and providing intelligence assessments to say just that when there is so much to be gained from doing so personally and basically no downside to being wrong.
Sure, there will be an insurgency issue after the war, but that’s a problem for after the war. And as I have said before, I think Russia will change how it conducts itself during the latter phases of the war, once they are deep in hostile territory, that will probably vastly mitigate this potential insurgency threat while also massively increasing the costs for NATO and the EU.
Basically, expect them to take the gloves off when the Ukrainian military holes up in population centres in areas that are overwhelmingly anti-Russian. They will do so consistently and maybe even deliberately by trapping Ukrainian military forces in population centres to give them the pretext needed to bomb and shell those population centres off the map. Drive all the hostile population progressively west and out of Ukrainian and the insurgency problem basically solves itself.
⚡️Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (June 24, 2022)
Part 1 (read Part 2)
◽️Successful offensive of Russian units towards Lugansk within 5 days has resulted in the liberation of Loskutovka, Podlesnoye, Mirnaya Dolina, Shchebkaryer, Vrubovka, Nyrkovo, Nikiolayevka, Novoivanovka, Ustinovka and Ray-Aleksandrovka.
◽️Group of Ukrainian units has been completely isolated near Gorskoye and Zolotoye.
◽️This pocket has encircled 4 battalions: 3rd Mechanised Battalion of 24th Mechanised Brigade, 15th Mountain Assault Battalion of 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, 42nd Mechanised Infantry Battalion of 57th Mechanised Infantry Brigade, 70th Battalion of 101st Territorial Defence Brigade, as well as an artillery group of 57th Mechanised Infantry Brigade, a group of Nazis from Right Sector organisation and a detachment of foreign mercenaries.
In total, the Gorskoye pocket has isolated up to 2,000 people: about 1,800 servicemen, 120 Nazis from Right Sector, up to 80 foreign mercenaries, as well as over 40 armoured combat vehicles and about 80 guns and mortars.
◽️41 servicemen abandoned their resistance and surrendered voluntarily just over the past 24 hours.
◽️According to the prisoners, the encircled Ukrainian units are exhausted. The units are currently manned by less than 40%. Higher Ukrainian command has lost control over these units. Armament, munitions, fuel and other logistic supply is completely stopped.
◽️Russian troops are straitening the Gorskoye encirclement by launching uninterrupted attacks at the enemy. Half of Zolotoye had been taken under control over yesterday.
◽️The enemy suffers considerable losses in other directions, too.
High-precision attacks of Russian Aerospace Forces at three bases of foreign mercenaries in Nikolayev, Golitsyno (Nikolayev region) and Oleshki (Kharkov region) have resulted in the elimination of more than 200 'soldiers of fortune' and up to 100 Ukrainian nationalists.
◽️Desertion and refusals to be involved in operations are becoming widespread in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Over 30 Ukrainian servicemen from one of the battalions of 25th Airborne Brigade have abandoned their positions and personal weapons near Aleksandropol (Donetsk People's Republic).
◽️To replenish the losses in manpower, Ukrainian command are forced to form separate rifle battalions formed by untrained, mobilised citizens in each regions towards Donetsk and Lugansk.
#MoD #Russia #Ukraine
@mod_russia_en
⚡️Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (June 24, 2022)
Part 2 (read Part 1)
◽️The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.
Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised AFU manpower and military equipment at 367 areas. 5 depots of munitions, missiles, artillery armament and logistic supplies near Privolye (Lugansk People's Republic) and Nikolayev, as well as artillery and mortar units in 62 areas, including an artillery battery of M-777 howitzers near Oleshki (Kharkov region).
Bastion coastal missile system has launched an attack at the firing position of S-300 air defence missile system near Odessa. The target has been eliminated.
◽️Attacks launched by aviation, missile troops and artillery have resulted in the elimination of more than 620 nationalists, 19 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, as well as 17 special vehicles.
Russian air defence means have destroyed 2 Su-25 airplanes near Dolgenkoye (Kharkov region) and Vysokopolye (Nikolayev region).
5 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down near Popasnaya and Kapitanovo (Lugansk People's Republic), Verbovka, Donetskoye (Kharkov region), as well as 5 Tochka-U tactical missiles near Stakhanov, Lugansk and Izyum.
In total, 213 airplanes and 132 helicopters, 1,334 unmanned aerial vehicles, 350 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,769 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 659 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 3,002 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 3,835 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
#MoD #Russia #Ukraine
@mod_russia_en
Part 1 (read Part 2)
◽️Successful offensive of Russian units towards Lugansk within 5 days has resulted in the liberation of Loskutovka, Podlesnoye, Mirnaya Dolina, Shchebkaryer, Vrubovka, Nyrkovo, Nikiolayevka, Novoivanovka, Ustinovka and Ray-Aleksandrovka.
◽️Group of Ukrainian units has been completely isolated near Gorskoye and Zolotoye.
◽️This pocket has encircled 4 battalions: 3rd Mechanised Battalion of 24th Mechanised Brigade, 15th Mountain Assault Battalion of 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, 42nd Mechanised Infantry Battalion of 57th Mechanised Infantry Brigade, 70th Battalion of 101st Territorial Defence Brigade, as well as an artillery group of 57th Mechanised Infantry Brigade, a group of Nazis from Right Sector organisation and a detachment of foreign mercenaries.
In total, the Gorskoye pocket has isolated up to 2,000 people: about 1,800 servicemen, 120 Nazis from Right Sector, up to 80 foreign mercenaries, as well as over 40 armoured combat vehicles and about 80 guns and mortars.
◽️41 servicemen abandoned their resistance and surrendered voluntarily just over the past 24 hours.
◽️According to the prisoners, the encircled Ukrainian units are exhausted. The units are currently manned by less than 40%. Higher Ukrainian command has lost control over these units. Armament, munitions, fuel and other logistic supply is completely stopped.
◽️Russian troops are straitening the Gorskoye encirclement by launching uninterrupted attacks at the enemy. Half of Zolotoye had been taken under control over yesterday.
◽️The enemy suffers considerable losses in other directions, too.
High-precision attacks of Russian Aerospace Forces at three bases of foreign mercenaries in Nikolayev, Golitsyno (Nikolayev region) and Oleshki (Kharkov region) have resulted in the elimination of more than 200 'soldiers of fortune' and up to 100 Ukrainian nationalists.
◽️Desertion and refusals to be involved in operations are becoming widespread in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Over 30 Ukrainian servicemen from one of the battalions of 25th Airborne Brigade have abandoned their positions and personal weapons near Aleksandropol (Donetsk People's Republic).
◽️To replenish the losses in manpower, Ukrainian command are forced to form separate rifle battalions formed by untrained, mobilised citizens in each regions towards Donetsk and Lugansk.
#MoD #Russia #Ukraine
@mod_russia_en
⚡️Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (June 24, 2022)
Part 2 (read Part 1)
◽️The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.
Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised AFU manpower and military equipment at 367 areas. 5 depots of munitions, missiles, artillery armament and logistic supplies near Privolye (Lugansk People's Republic) and Nikolayev, as well as artillery and mortar units in 62 areas, including an artillery battery of M-777 howitzers near Oleshki (Kharkov region).
Bastion coastal missile system has launched an attack at the firing position of S-300 air defence missile system near Odessa. The target has been eliminated.
◽️Attacks launched by aviation, missile troops and artillery have resulted in the elimination of more than 620 nationalists, 19 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, as well as 17 special vehicles.
Russian air defence means have destroyed 2 Su-25 airplanes near Dolgenkoye (Kharkov region) and Vysokopolye (Nikolayev region).
5 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down near Popasnaya and Kapitanovo (Lugansk People's Republic), Verbovka, Donetskoye (Kharkov region), as well as 5 Tochka-U tactical missiles near Stakhanov, Lugansk and Izyum.
In total, 213 airplanes and 132 helicopters, 1,334 unmanned aerial vehicles, 350 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,769 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 659 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 3,002 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 3,835 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
#MoD #Russia #Ukraine
@mod_russia_en
It is third time Russia return control of Ukraine. And both previous time it was splited in two steps. With first being Eastern Ukrainian regions.
If Ukraine's best soldiers are all in Donbas, why aren't the Russians attacking on a different front? Surely it would be better to take Zaporizhzhia than continue the fighting in the Donbas?
Exactly, Ukrainians have free movement and the right to work in the EU. This will be impossible to revoke. Only very few people will choose to fight an insurgency when they can live a good life in a rich country that welcomes them.
It might however be useful to create a small area into which all the insurgents can be moved. Just as they've turned Idlib into a rebel mini state in Syria, they could move all the insurgents to Lviv and keep the rest of the country pro Russian.
It is just the angle that makes it look like that. It didn't turn back to the launching point, but rather left and down and hit somewhere towards the cameraman.
Given the number of smoke trails, isn't it more likely an MLRS?
Minimal Export rn, but large Coal and uranium deposits right north of nikkolaev oblast.
I think that leaving western Ukraine to its own devices would make the entire affair kind of a waste. The main issue driving the conflict has been keeping Ukraine from entering NATO. I don't think the argument was demographic (NATO already has a huge demographic advantage over Russia, 45 million Ukrainians wouldn't make much of a difference), but geographic in nature - shortening the hypothetical future front line in a potential conflict with NATO.
Now, let's assume Russia cuts Ukraine off from the sea in the south (basically a must-have), and stays roughly along the Dnepr line in the east, while leaving western Ukraine alone, and that western Ukraine sooner or later joins NATO. The Russia-NATO border doesn't get shorter. It actually gets longer compared to the pre-war situation. Not capturing western Ukraine, or at least not turning it into a satellite akin to Belarus, would be a bad move as far as establishing future Russia-NATO border goes.
The perfect western border for Russia (physically) imo would be taking all of Ukraine, all of Moldavia, all of the Baltic states, and a portion of Romania along the Siret river. This is of course not possible, but not even taking all of Ukraine after you've already gone this far would be in my opinion a bad call. You already ate the sanctions, the west is already as distrustful of you as they can be, you already have the EU trying to move away from fossil fuels, they won't come back even if they have to bite the economic bullet and stagflate. Might as well go all in and secure your interests in full - going half way doesn't get you anything.
I would also disagree that western Ukraine has no economic value. It's still farmland. Even if the agricultural output is not as high as other parts of Ukraine, it's still an asset you deny the other side. There are still industrial centers there (Lvov for example). And don't forget Kiev. Sure, a lot of people wouldn't return to Kiev under Russian/satellite control. But it would still be one of the largest cities in eastern Europe, and it will always have a symbolic value. Just my thoughts though.
Now, let's assume Russia cuts Ukraine off from the sea in the south (basically a must-have), and stays roughly along the Dnepr line in the east, while leaving western Ukraine alone, and that western Ukraine sooner or later joins NATO. The Russia-NATO border doesn't get shorter. It actually gets longer compared to the pre-war situation. Not capturing western Ukraine, or at least not turning it into a satellite akin to Belarus, would be a bad move as far as establishing future Russia-NATO border goes.
The perfect western border for Russia (physically) imo would be taking all of Ukraine, all of Moldavia, all of the Baltic states, and a portion of Romania along the Siret river. This is of course not possible, but not even taking all of Ukraine after you've already gone this far would be in my opinion a bad call. You already ate the sanctions, the west is already as distrustful of you as they can be, you already have the EU trying to move away from fossil fuels, they won't come back even if they have to bite the economic bullet and stagflate. Might as well go all in and secure your interests in full - going half way doesn't get you anything.
I would also disagree that western Ukraine has no economic value. It's still farmland. Even if the agricultural output is not as high as other parts of Ukraine, it's still an asset you deny the other side. There are still industrial centers there (Lvov for example). And don't forget Kiev. Sure, a lot of people wouldn't return to Kiev under Russian/satellite control. But it would still be one of the largest cities in eastern Europe, and it will always have a symbolic value. Just my thoughts though.
You yourself are making assumptions. While I do not subscribe to the opinion of those who say that Russia is not interested in taking over Western Ukraine because of its lack of economic utility, I do indeed believe that the Russians wouldn't want to take over Western Ukraine because of the certainly very hostile population and also because of the additional logistical efforts and even strain that will entail for it to occupy that part of the country.
The Russians do also have concern for being embroiled in a likely open ended conflict in Western Ukraine that will cost them significant numbers of personnel and also treasury. I do not believe that Russia is running out of ammunition, vehicles, personnel, finances etc to sustain its objectives in the Donbass and other parts of Ukraine that it already occupies. Far from it. But attempting to occupy the rest of Ukraine, especially Ukraine west of the Dnieper is many times for taxing in terms of resources.
I do not believe that the Russians will be as ruthless as you believe they will be with regards to Western Ukraine.