The War in the Ukraine

SlothmanAllen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Russia has a modern Air Force with low average age of airframes. They bought their Su-35 less than a decade ago. So they had no reason to make large orders of the Su-57.
Once the Su-35 airframes get like 20 years old they will start being replaced.
I am not sure if I would call it modern. How many aircraft in Russian Air Force have AESA radars? If you look at China and the US they have thousands of aircraft with AESA radars and are both introducing GaN variants of existing radar sets.
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
Nope US won't have problems destroying Ukraine ADs.
  1. For one, US has a lot more ISR drones than Russia; stealth and high attitude ones. Russia has only the Orion and even not that many.
  2. US has a constellation of ISR satellites that can provide a near complete radar picture of AD systems in Ukraine.
  3. Couple Points 1 and 2 with decoy cruise missiles to trigger AD system
  4. And then lastly, US fighters, although short legged, can destroy UAF and subsequently launch Anti-Radiation missiles at these sites.
They've done this many things. They've built their whole entire air force and naval structure around the doctrine of SEAD and DEAD ops.

Russia lack of satellites, high altitude drones, and dedicated EA aircraft are the issues.
US can't even deal with Houthis AD buddy.

This is a matter of expectations, Russia is expected to suffer zero loses, anything less is failure, while Ukraine is expected to suffer loses, having any survivor is a win.
 

Racek49

New Member
Registered Member
They aren't that far from either Izium or Lyman.
But yeah crossing the river to Kherson is unlikely.


They have the capability, but to fight inside the city would take a lot of troops. You would need a large scale mobilization and the Russian government thus far has balked at this.
It is not enough just to conquer, but after occupying, to also hold, to ensure security and to ensure the entire logistics of the city, which is still completely connected to Ukrainian resources. To ensure energy, food and the entire system of operation of the city from Russia. And I can't imagine that, for example, with Kharkiv.
By the way, the drone attack was really good, but it destroyed weapons that Russia used very little against Ukraine. Militarily, it won't change anything. Besides, I think that such attacks against a country that is practically very sparsely populated are quite easy. There are always enough places to prepare, you can easily find the saboteurs and you can easily transport parts of those drones across foreign countries, after all, Russia has the longest borders in the world, which are almost unguarded. With 145 million inhabitants, Russia is simply too big for them to be able to guard them safely.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
I am not sure if I would call it modern. How many aircraft in Russian Air Force have AESA radars? If you look at China and the US they have thousands of aircraft with AESA radars and are both introducing GaN variants of existing radar sets.
Not that many. Just on the Su-57s. Russia was behind in GaA radar and chose to play to its strengths with klystrons and made the Irbis-E for the Su-35.
It has better specs than first generation AESA anyway. But yes it is worse than second and third generation AESA.
 

Neurosmith

Junior Member
Registered Member
Nobody is asking the most pertinent question, which is how Ukraine managed to sneak several trucks with FPV drones throughout Russia and near these military bases.

Airbase defense is something that could be improved upon, and I don't think even NATO could've expected such faraway bases to be struck. No amount of air defenses would suffice if Russia continues to be critically incompetent at stopping Ukrainian subterfuge and sabotage operations within its own borders, which is a problem with counterintelligence and surveillance rather than military tactic.
 

SlothmanAllen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Nobody is asking the most pertinent question, which is how Ukraine managed to sneak several trucks with FPV drones throughout Russia and near these military bases.

Airbase defense is something that could be improved upon, and I don't think even NATO could've expected such faraway bases to be struck. No amount of air defenses would suffice if Russia continues to be critically incompetent at stopping Ukrainian subterfuge and sabotage operations within its own borders, which is a problem with counterintelligence and surveillance rather than military tactic.

US Air Bases and Navy ships have had numerous drone incursions and encounters over the last seven or more years. There isn’t a good solution for this problem yet, especially in bases that are not in remote locations.

As you can see with this Ukrainian attack, normal looking trucks can be driven close to the base, pulled over to the side of the road, or parked in a gas station and then left. Rumours are these drones used AI for their attacks, so they might have not needed a man in the loop making them even more independent.

One solution is build and house all types of aircraft in hardened shelters. This would obviously be expensive upfront and maintenance heavy. You also need some sort of soft kill (EW or directed energy) and hard kill systems in place. Which is again more infrastructure and maintenance.
 

geralt

Just Hatched
Registered Member
There is nothing stopping Chinese fishermen, state sponsored or maybe Douyin streamers, from pulling this sort of stunt outside Taiwanese military airports since most are situated close to coast. There is no defense against this type of saturation attack.
This kind of drone attack probably relies on starlink. And Chinese version of starlink is still on the way.
 
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