What you mean is that Russia can intensify its attacks and put an end to the Ukrainian defenses whenever they want, but they don't do it because they prefer to tear themselves apart, economically, militarily and humanly, just out of "good will"?......As long as they don't use the ATACMS on targets deep within Russian territory itself it is unlikely that Russia would escalate with nukes. But Russia has plenty of options to escalate the conflict if they want to. They already started destroying bridges over the Oskol river. They can also destroy the bridges over the Dnieper if they wanted to.
right because whatever missiles they used they didnt have enough of them last year.They didn't blow up the bridges over the Oskol river last year either. But they did it this year.
The Russians are failing at this. Honestly, you can even see the objectives of the Russian command, but the actions of the Russian command to achieve this are very questionable. In the strike that took place in February 2023, where they targeted the Poltava oblast, there were even blackouts, but they are temporary, Ukrainian Railways reports delays in services when this happens, this only slows down the strengthening of the units formed there, but does not eliminate troop supply in Poltava, this would be completely achievable if they had already attacked any of the railway bridges in Poltava oblast:bridges over the dnieper are not the same as those over oskil. they are bigger, harder to damage, and further away. there are also a few dams that double as crossings, cant exactly blow up those. the most russia can do is concentrate on the rail crossings and destroy those to slow down ukrainian rail transport.
having the ordnance to reach these targets is not the same as being able to destroy them. look at how hard it has been for ukraine to take out even one bridge which is the kerch. makes no difference if you take out the bridge then it is repaired in a couple of days.The Russians are failing at this. Honestly, you can even see the objectives of the Russian command, but the actions of the Russian command to achieve this are very questionable. In the strike that took place in February 2023, where they targeted the Poltava oblast, there were even blackouts, but they are temporary, Ukrainian Railways reports delays in services when this happens, this only slows down the strengthening of the units formed there, but does not eliminate troop supply in Poltava, this would be completely achievable if they had already attacked any of the railway bridges in Poltava oblast:
1 - A railway bridge in Kremenchuk: 49.051951, 33.424076
2 - Another railway bridge in Cherkasy: 49.479244, 32.039574
3 - Another bridge with a direct line to Kiev connecting with Poltava: 49.638602, 34.181466
4 - Another bridge with a direct line to Kiev connecting with Poltava: 49.838078, 33.852300
5 - Another bridge with a direct line to Kiev connecting with Poltava: 49.953357, 33.581174
6 - Another bridge with a direct line to Kiev connecting with Poltava: 49.977628, 33.015386
Destroying any bridge directly connecting Kiev to Poltava in addition to destroying the railway bridge at Kremenchuk ends any supply of troops to Poltava by rail. An Iskander in Belgorod has enough range to attack any of the 6 railway bridges, all bridges above are within missile range, plus the ship-launched Kalibr and Kh-101/Kh-22... aircraft-launched LACMs, all missiles have the range to do this. This type of air interdiction would solve many problems for Russia in Kharkiv/Luhansk, in addition to effectively delaying any viable buildup for offensives or the formation of reserves, strikes in this Poltava oblast could be even smaller because the amount of troops, weapons and supplies sent there would already decrease drastically due to the collapse of the railway bridge.
Eh no. Kh-38 is way larger than Maverick. Kh-38 is a 520 kg missile with 250 kg warhead. Maverick is a 210-304 kg missile with 57-136 kg warhead. The Kh-38 has roughly twice the weight and warhead of the largest Maverick.
For comparison the FAB-250 has 100 kg filling weight, FAB-500 has 300 kg filling weight, FAB-1500 has 675 kg filling weight. So the Kh-38 has close to the same warhead weight as the FAB-500.
Also, for comparison, the Iskander has a 480-700 kg warhead weight. Kinzhal is probably the same with regards to explosive. But it has much higher kinetic energy due to higher speed.
The Il-76MD-90A has glass cockpit and uses more modern PS-90-76 engines instead of the D-30. So it has built-in navigation and is more fuel efficient with greater range.New IL-76MD-90A delivered to Russian Aerospace. I'm not sure what the alphabet soup means, or what's the improvements or modernizations just yet.
Computer onboard a Kaliber missile looks outdated but the important part is that it's entirely Russian, self produced and sanction proof.
I suggest you put the coordinates on the map to know what type of railway bridge I was referring to. You mentioned the Kerch Bridge as a teaching example that tearing down bridges is the hardest thing, but the Kerch Bridge is multiple times more reinforced than any bridge I mentioned.having the ordnance to reach these targets is not the same as being able to destroy them. look at how hard it has been for ukraine to take out even one bridge which is the kerch. makes no difference if you take out the bridge then it is repaired in a couple of days.
from russias perspective, there are a few concerns about using missiles to hit these bridges:
1. are they accurate enough to hit the bridge. a rail bridge is what, 10m wide? a missile could easily miss. how many missiles do you need for a couple of them to land a hit to collapse it?
2. russia not only needs missiles to collapse a bridge, they need to be able to collapse all of them within a short amount of time, lets say within a week, to overwhelm ukraine's repair capabilities and to prevent them from being able to redirect rail traffic.
3. russia also needs to time these hits with a general offensive, because if you dont attack on the ground, then once the bridges are repaired you are back to square one.
so in order to make these attacks make sense, russia needs missiles that are accurate, needs them in enough numbers, also needs sensors that can assess damage after hit, AND they need to be able to pair these hits with a major ground offensive.