The War in the Ukraine

Hadoren said:

I wouldn't get too excited about any possible "cauldron." In this entire war, Russia has only managed one encirclement in Mariupol. And even then it took months to eliminate the defenders.

Best case scenario - Russia surrounds Avdeevka on three sides, Ukraine loses a lot of troops, and Ukraine finally withdraws.

More likely scenario - nothing exciting happens in Avdeevka for the next half year. I remember in August when the Russians looked threatening towards Kupyansk. Several months later, and looks like Kupyansk isn't going to fall anytime soon.

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Theyve been fighting for kills, not land, for the entire war. The point would be that eventually they can make many safe encirclements once the defenders are sufficiently thinned out.

If Ukraine isn't able to make any plays and they just keep losing men and materiel, we're simply waiting for the transition point when manning the front isn't an option anymore.

Stealthflanker said:

Or Russian DRG can now actually penetrate the frontline that far deep. Not a small feat.

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They did that on a large Ukrainian oil facility in the north, where they struck it with FPV drones. But it's easier to do infiltration there due to having more forest cover. From the south, to strike those air bases it would to be done in the flat open Zaporozhye region, which is something that would be risky for a DRG to do, although not impossible but very close to foolhardy.

Hadoren said:

I wouldn't get too excited about any possible "cauldron." In this entire war, Russia has only managed one encirclement in Mariupol. And even then it took months to eliminate the defenders.

Best case scenario - Russia surrounds Avdeevka on three sides, Ukraine loses a lot of troops, and Ukraine finally withdraws.

More likely scenario - nothing exciting happens in Avdeevka for the next half year. I remember in August when the Russians looked threatening towards Kupyansk. Several months later, and looks like Kupyansk isn't going to fall anytime soon.

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it's quite easy to tell, if russia continues to make noticeable progress to the end of this week, then avdeevka is in real danger. if no noticeable advance by end of the week, then it means their momentum has run out. this breach in the north of the city does look like an opportunist advance to capture a momentary weakness in ukrainian lines, there were no significant build up prior, so if ukraine gets a couple of days to regain its composure that's all they need to re-stabilize the front.

Statement from Zelensky himself who went to NATO HQ at Brussels today, stressing the need for defense instead of continued counteroffensive. I think it's safe to conclude that Russians now have the initiative.

I think overall the counteroffensive have been a big failure, wasted man and machine for little territorial gain and has made the west become weary of further aid. Having said that I'm not sure if there's any better alternative for the Kiev government, had their decided to just dig in for an offensive in 2024 instead their western backers may also run out of patience due to perceived lack of result from their aid.

Temstar said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1712066204704116993

Statement from Zelensky himself who went to NATO HQ at Brussels today, stressing the need for defense instead of continued counteroffensive. I think it's safe to conclude that Russians now have the initiative.

I think overall the counteroffensive have been a big failure, wasted man and machine for little territorial gain and has made the west become weary of further aid. Having said that I'm not sure if there's any better alternative for the Kiev government, had their decided to just dig in for an offensive in 2024 instead their western backers may also run out of patience due to perceived lack of result from their aid.

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Will we see DJI v Abrams before they call it quits?

Temstar said:

I think overall the counteroffensive have been a big failure, wasted man and machine for little territorial gain and has made the west become weary of further aid. Having said that I'm not sure if there's any better alternative for the Kiev government, had their decided to just dig in for an offensive in 2024 instead their western backers may also run out of patience due to perceived lack of result from their aid.

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The counteroffensive would have to have been conducted this year, however, the planning was extremely underestimated by the Russian forces, they really believed that the Russians in the trenches under the effect of the bombs would surrender to the Ukrainians. I believe that this was the second biggest strategic error of this war, the main mistake of this war was the invasion by Russia.

FPV drone takes out Ukrainian observation post.


Missile attack on the Ukrainian airfield in Myrhorod, Poltava region where several fighters are parked.


Destruction of an AFU field ammo depot in Novomikhailovka. Credit for the attack goes to a 240mm 2S4 Tyulpan mortar.


Batch of new Ghoul drones ready to be sent to a customer regiment.


203mm 2S7M Malka self propelled howitzer of the 1st Donetsk Army firing at Ukrainian positions in support of the offensive in Avdiivka.


New batch of T-90M "Breakthrough" and modernized T-73B3M tanks ready to be sent to the front.


FPV drones of the Sudoplatov Battalion taking out several AFU pickups and a Kirpi.


Russian columns advancing into Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka.


Servicemen of the AFU 77th Brigade got lost and ended up where the 1st Guards Army is. Seeing their mistake, they surrendered.


More airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka.



Closeup of the Challenger tank knocked out last September, along with the blown turret of T-64BV and a destroyed M113.


Ukrainian pickup truck with troops and supplies under attack by the 40th Marines Brigade. The truck tried to hide and the Russian FPV drone missed. However the follow up attack by a 122mm shell of a Russian 2S1 Gvozdika hit true to its target.


Zaporozhye front getting more FABs again.


RM-70 MLRS moments before it's destruction.

Hadoren said:

I wouldn't get too excited about any possible "cauldron." In this entire war, Russia has only managed one encirclement in Mariupol. And even then it took months to eliminate the defenders.
Best case scenario - Russia surrounds Avdeevka on three sides, Ukraine loses a lot of troops, and Ukraine finally withdraws.

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This isn't the first time Russia captured the area of the railway north of Avdeevka. Last time the Ukrainians managed to push them back. But it is the first time the Russians bombed it this severely.

Looks like Avdeevka will fall not long later. Major milestone as it secures Donesk from terror attacks. Russia has only up to the winter for making big pushes like these. Afterward big push has to come next summer. Judging from Zelensky's statement some sort of counterattack is coming.

Not really. Russia has done winter offensives before. Once the mud freezes over an offensive is also possible.