People keep saying Russia will escalate, but Russia has never shown the ability to retaliate to Ukrainian strikes beyond low bandwidth cruise missile strikes. What they are doing in Ukraine is indeed what they are capable of.
They could use strategic bombing or tactical nukes. But those cannot be used because that is not the mission as stated by the commander in chief when the conflict started. This is not total war or something like that.
It takes a lot more firepower to irreparably damage modern structures than people realize. Cement and steel are very resilient materials, especially when paired together. The real answer is that Ukraine is a fairly big country and the Russian mic is not capable producing the volume of munitions needed to really devastate its infrastructure conventionally.
Russia has thus far avoided hitting the main power switches at power plants preferring to hit secondary switches. Those main switches are actually highly vulnerable and could still be targeted. One reason claimed why Russia has not hit the main switches is because it could lead to a collapse of the grid and the meltdown of the Ukrainian nuclear reactors. But if the Russians did not care about it, that could be done.
And Russia did resume bombing of the Ukrainian electric grid just recently in preparation for winter. You probably just missed the news.
They would be capable of this if Russia enjoyed the kind of uncontested air dominance they had over Georgia, and could just spam ultra cheap gravity bombs with impunity. But Russia does not have this, so they are stuck trying to destroy an entire country's infrastructure with expensive long range fires.
Yes that could be a factor. Even in Georgia, Russia did lose a bomber to some Georgian air defenses which had their electronics upgraded. Which is an experience they would rather not repeat. The bombing would likely have to be done by the Tu-22M3, and those are not manufactured anymore, so it would not be possible to replace lost airframes. The Tu-160 is in production, but it is horribly expensive, and not designed to hit targets with gravity bombs in the first place. It is a pure cruise missile launcher. The replacement, PAK DA, is only expected to enter service in the later part of this decade.
there is no greed, if they didn't do it in 2022 when they could really have an impact, doing it today would not have a major impact on the war fronts, the decision makers in Kiev are not in the official buildings, and the civilian evacuation plans before attacks on critical infrastructures are already more than approved at this point....
It is just that Russia is not wasting munitions on what is basically just a propaganda target. An empty building for all intents and purposes like the Black Sea Fleet HQ. Russia is in a war footing and active command personnel of the Black Sea Fleet are in a command bunker, not in the above ground building. Ukraine basically wasted at least three Storm Shadow cruise missiles just hitting what is basically just a propaganda target. Russia isn't going to copy that kind of move.
The Russians do not mind blowing up a civilian building, if their intelligence confirms a viable military objective, and they have done so.... it is absurd that at this point it is believed that Russia does not bomb, only because of its "good will", or because they are still thinking about taking Kiev...
Russia could do targeted assassinations. The Ukrainians have already killed two Russian journalists inside Russia. So the Russians have the justification to do it. That is one possible escalation they could do.
They don't do it because they want to maintain the public image that they are strong and can destroy Ukraine whenever they want, but that is as fictitious as their "red lines"... Russian intelligence in Ukraine has been a complete disaster. From the beginning. of the invasion, that is why its strategic bombings barely achieve significant objectives, that is why there are dozens of Su-24 planes with the capacity to launch supersonic missiles against Russian territory, that is why thousands of military equipment arrives from the West along all the Ukrainian borders with total impunity , the logistical lines to the front and from the front have not been attacked, so much so that they can even send tanks from the front to the western front to repair, that is why the production of drones and missiles in Ukrainian territory continues to increase....
"Production" of anything in Ukrainian territory is just a trickle. What I think they could do is basically destroy the bridges over the Dnieper. They already destroyed one recently, but they could destroy more of them.