The War in the Ukraine

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
On long term thinking, Having a functional neighbor is better than having a nonfunctional one that ask for even more war payment retributions.

Or maybe they have some dreaming intentions of taking.

Or they have their hands full already about destroying military asset that try to pass through their flanks than spending a lot of ammunitions on huge civilians infrastructures.
yup that third one is it, which is that they can't. right now it is clear that the way for either side to win is by attrition, both in military and civilian terms. the more damage you do to the other side, the quicker that moment will come, which in turn means less damage to yourself.
 

Sheleah

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's a bit strange, I think is more about greed than anything else.
there is no greed, if they didn't do it in 2022 when they could really have an impact, doing it today would not have a major impact on the war fronts, the decision makers in Kiev are not in the official buildings, and the civilian evacuation plans before attacks on critical infrastructures are already more than approved at this point....


The Russians do not mind blowing up a civilian building, if their intelligence confirms a viable military objective, and they have done so.... it is absurd that at this point it is believed that Russia does not bomb, only because of its "good will", or because they are still thinking about taking Kiev...


They don't do it because they want to maintain the public image that they are strong and can destroy Ukraine whenever they want, but that is as fictitious as their "red lines"... Russian intelligence in Ukraine has been a complete disaster. From the beginning. of the invasion, that is why its strategic bombings barely achieve significant objectives, that is why there are dozens of Su-24 planes with the capacity to launch supersonic missiles against Russian territory, that is why thousands of military equipment arrives from the West along all the Ukrainian borders with total impunity , the logistical lines to the front and from the front have not been attacked, so much so that they can even send tanks from the front to the western front to repair, that is why the production of drones and missiles in Ukrainian territory continues to increase....
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
If I were Ukrainians I would be more concerned of 2024 election than anything Russians can do. Maybe pull an India on Donald Trump will do! Joke aside, are there any more Soviet style equipment available in NATO for donation? Or will we be seeing mostly old NATO equipement from now on.
 

Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Hi
another theory of German soldier died in tank battle
can be not a German born citizen, but someone who
been offered citizenship of Germany after serving in
Ukrainian war and if or when he will be survived will
be offered citizenship
just a guess
thank you


And another much more reasonable explanation: It‘s pure plain stupid propaganda?

Really, not to trying to find reasonable explanations for such an evening, which surely would be all over the media if true facts were found makes no sense, when the easiest explanation is just obvious: It‘s a lie!
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
And another much more reasonable explanation: It‘s pure plain stupid propaganda?

Really, not to trying to find reasonable explanations for such an evening, which surely would be all over the media if true facts were found makes no sense, when the easiest explanation is just obvious: It‘s a lie!
People’s responses to information are determined more by their sympathies than by any critical examinations, particularly when regarding information that potentially confirms or negates such sympathies.

Put simply, confirmation-bias; but, you already know this!
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
People keep saying Russia will escalate, but Russia has never shown the ability to retaliate to Ukrainian strikes beyond low bandwidth cruise missile strikes. What they are doing in Ukraine is indeed what they are capable of.
They could use strategic bombing or tactical nukes. But those cannot be used because that is not the mission as stated by the commander in chief when the conflict started. This is not total war or something like that.

It takes a lot more firepower to irreparably damage modern structures than people realize. Cement and steel are very resilient materials, especially when paired together. The real answer is that Ukraine is a fairly big country and the Russian mic is not capable producing the volume of munitions needed to really devastate its infrastructure conventionally.
Russia has thus far avoided hitting the main power switches at power plants preferring to hit secondary switches. Those main switches are actually highly vulnerable and could still be targeted. One reason claimed why Russia has not hit the main switches is because it could lead to a collapse of the grid and the meltdown of the Ukrainian nuclear reactors. But if the Russians did not care about it, that could be done.

And Russia did resume bombing of the Ukrainian electric grid just recently in preparation for winter. You probably just missed the news.

They would be capable of this if Russia enjoyed the kind of uncontested air dominance they had over Georgia, and could just spam ultra cheap gravity bombs with impunity. But Russia does not have this, so they are stuck trying to destroy an entire country's infrastructure with expensive long range fires.
Yes that could be a factor. Even in Georgia, Russia did lose a bomber to some Georgian air defenses which had their electronics upgraded. Which is an experience they would rather not repeat. The bombing would likely have to be done by the Tu-22M3, and those are not manufactured anymore, so it would not be possible to replace lost airframes. The Tu-160 is in production, but it is horribly expensive, and not designed to hit targets with gravity bombs in the first place. It is a pure cruise missile launcher. The replacement, PAK DA, is only expected to enter service in the later part of this decade.

there is no greed, if they didn't do it in 2022 when they could really have an impact, doing it today would not have a major impact on the war fronts, the decision makers in Kiev are not in the official buildings, and the civilian evacuation plans before attacks on critical infrastructures are already more than approved at this point....
It is just that Russia is not wasting munitions on what is basically just a propaganda target. An empty building for all intents and purposes like the Black Sea Fleet HQ. Russia is in a war footing and active command personnel of the Black Sea Fleet are in a command bunker, not in the above ground building. Ukraine basically wasted at least three Storm Shadow cruise missiles just hitting what is basically just a propaganda target. Russia isn't going to copy that kind of move.

The Russians do not mind blowing up a civilian building, if their intelligence confirms a viable military objective, and they have done so.... it is absurd that at this point it is believed that Russia does not bomb, only because of its "good will", or because they are still thinking about taking Kiev...
Russia could do targeted assassinations. The Ukrainians have already killed two Russian journalists inside Russia. So the Russians have the justification to do it. That is one possible escalation they could do.

They don't do it because they want to maintain the public image that they are strong and can destroy Ukraine whenever they want, but that is as fictitious as their "red lines"... Russian intelligence in Ukraine has been a complete disaster. From the beginning. of the invasion, that is why its strategic bombings barely achieve significant objectives, that is why there are dozens of Su-24 planes with the capacity to launch supersonic missiles against Russian territory, that is why thousands of military equipment arrives from the West along all the Ukrainian borders with total impunity , the logistical lines to the front and from the front have not been attacked, so much so that they can even send tanks from the front to the western front to repair, that is why the production of drones and missiles in Ukrainian territory continues to increase....
"Production" of anything in Ukrainian territory is just a trickle. What I think they could do is basically destroy the bridges over the Dnieper. They already destroyed one recently, but they could destroy more of them.
 

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
"Production" of anything in Ukrainian territory is just a trickle. What I think they could do is basically destroy the bridges over the Dnieper. They already destroyed one recently, but they could destroy more of them.
this is it, destroying at least all of the railway connections over the dnieper will significantly reduce ukrainian logistics. it is hard but feasible. will require potent amount of heavy precision guided missiles.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
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U.S. Army Hospital in Germany Is Treating Americans Hurt Fighting in Ukraine​

Sept. 23, 2023

A group of Ukrainian Army soldiers pierced by Russian grenades and mortar shells arrived at a hospital recently in need of surgery. It would have been a familiar scene from the bloody war grinding on in Ukraine, except for two crucial differences: Most of the wounded
soldiers were American, and so was the hospital — the U.S. Army’s flagship medical center in Germany.
...
 

BoraTas

Captain
Registered Member
They can easily target decision making centres like the Ukrainian parliament or just take out power stations and critical infrastructure.
They tried that last winter with a lot of missiles. They didn't achieve anything beyond inconveniencing civilians with blackouts. Military needs were prioritized and were fulfilled despite the strikes. A lot of the damage is already repaired. Bombing the parliament would be a warcrime and wouldn't result in military advantage.

If Russia was capable of destroying critical infrastructure, it would destroy the roads and railways NATO weapons are flowing into Ukraine. They would also destroy whatever Ukraine is using to still fly fighters. These didn't happen.

They could use strategic bombing or tactical nukes. But those cannot be used because that is not the mission as stated by the commander in chief when the conflict started. This is not total war or something like that.

As written on this thread. If they can't generate substantial effects on the frontline with their TacAir, how can they carpet bomb cities? Bombers are less survivable and cities are deeper within Ukraine.

Nukes are absolute no go. A nuclear armed state using nukes against a non-nuclear one after invading it is just so unpalatable. I am sympathetic to Russian security concerns (I always had a darker view of international politics) but breaking the nuclear taboo would be totally inexcusable. In fact, I would go as far as saying it would make NATO intervention reasonable because nothing else is stopping widespread nuclear proliferation after that, which means nuclear wars would be common.
 
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