Some new information about the UAV attack against the Il-76 base
He used to be a lot worse. As much as it pains me to admit it, his level of quality is high enough today that I wouldn't hesitate to give his articles a read, I would just take them with a grain of salt.
That is an incredibly sharp IR image that is almost certain to be from a NATO spy satellite since its impossible that an aircraft which can carry that quality of imaging equipment would be able to fly so far into Russian airspace and so high over a military airbase without getting splashed.
All I can say is NATO is playing stupid games and being ever more careless and provocative in flaunting it’s direct involvement in attacks against the Russians, deep into Russian territory no less.
Such self presented evidence pretty much gives Russia enough justification to label NATO ISR assets as direct participants in armed hostilities against Russian forces and thus are legitimate targets. NATO would certainly do so if missiles and drones started blowing up stuff in NATO military bases on NATO soil with the Russians showing the moment of impact images.
It is worth noting that the Russians and Putin in particular are patient. Just because they have not escalated this far, when the odds are stacked against them, does not mean they will not come back and settle old scores later, when the odds are more in the favour. It is also worth noting that you cannot invoke Article 5 if you yourself initiated armed hostilities first.
Nothing quite like an Iskandr strike. Well there is, but anyway. I wonder if those secondaries were landmines triggered by the shockwave?Iskandr SRBM strike on AFU headquarters in Rovno, DNR:
The IR imagery from the short clip shown appears to be from a thermo camera equipped UAV rather than any satellite as initially proposed. This could be western provided or just a DJI UAV, is Russia going to back ETIM now?I would not be surprised if Russia starts directly assisting potential adversaries in their attacks against NATO from now on.
Look at deino's post right above yours, it doesn't really strike me as satellite footage. After all if UAVs were used to accurately strike critical points of aircrafts they'll have to be guided to target visually anyhow. It seems reasonable to have a loitering thermal camera equipped UAV for damage assessment.Well for one thing, I believe that the provided images are in fact commercial satellite footage, but that's not why I made my comment.
The reason why @plawolf comment elicited such a response from me, is because I find it highly unlikely that this operation is possible without direct NATO involvement. I find it highly likely that target identification, route planning, and timetables have all been provided by NATO.
Is it possible that Ukraine did this all on its own? Certainly. It's possible.
But this is a country that's in an all out war, and whatever spy networks they have in Russia, it's much easier to know which targets are available, when and where, by using satellite footage. All of which NATO can readily provide.
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Putting aside what actually happened, what matters is what Russian leadership believe and I'm willing to bet a few body parts that the Russian leadership is assuming that this operation has been carried out with massive NATO help. I expect Russia to remember these incidents, and respond in kind when the opportunity arises.
Consider how many adversaries NATO has. Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, China, any of the dozen countries in Africa. In an event of any future NATO operation (whether it is a military one or otherwise), Russian intelligence or direct assistance, can turn the tide in these NATO endeavors.
SVR might even send a letter signed, "Russia sends its regards"... but that's enough Tom Clancy fiction for now.
Bottom line, NATO has clearly greatly escalated this situation regardless of anyone's opinion on whether that was the right or wrong thing to do. Russia can't resort to nukes, and it may have limited ways to escalate itself, but it will most certainly remember every single moment of this war, and pay back in kind when the opportunity arises, and it will arise.