The War in the Ukraine

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I think Russians are incapable of doing maneuver warfare at large scale, unless there’s some major collapse un Ukrainian lines (unlikely). Russian reserves at this point and a portion of many deployed units are filled by mobiks. It seems these guys have varying levels of experience and training, but for guys with no combat experience it might be as little as 2-3 months. (Anecdotal experience:
).

This amount of training is only sufficient for basic combat and small unit tactics training, something useful in storming another Bakhmut but not good for maneuver warfare. For that, they would need much more combat coordination training and training with equipment, which would take 6 months or more.

Good point. They clearly have the capability to created armored formations and have announced the creation of 5 new divisions and 26 new brigades by 2024. The main question is 1. how many are operational? 2. will they actually use it now or wait until later.

They probably do have fully trained armored formations ready but do not want to use it yet.

I agree with the idea that they will likely not use massed armored forces, at least for a long time.

The Russian Security Council recently claimed that they produced 600 tanks in 5 months of 2023, so their production rate is 120 per month. This is consistant with Putin/Medevev's claim that in 2023 they will produce 1500-1400 tanks. Russia's tank losses in the Ukraine have been very high, and the more new model T-90/T-80/T-72/T-62 they send into Ukraine for assault gun work, the less they have for their strategic reserve.

But eventually Russian production will increase to offset losses, partially since Ukraine's situation with ammunition appears to be catastrophic and gaining more AFVs from the west will be harder.
 

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Marinka is almost done. Whatever left is being hit hard by thermobaric weapons. There are videos of TOS being used and the rubble won't protect those trying to escape from.

That sector has been reinforced by the Akhmat-Kadyrov special forces unit.


It must have been the deployment of the 2 Chechen units that broke through then.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Russia lost a lot of military hardware in the rush to cover as much ground as possible when the conflict started last year. They will likely only recover those hardware losses in ground equipment closer to the end of this year. Even if they do decide on making another large offensive, I expect it to be more methodical than what they did last year. They will likely push in a wide front and not make incursions as deep as they did back then into enemy positions.
 

MarKoz81

Junior Member
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Feels a little off top ic, but frankly I think it’s pretty damning of how major militaries have taken their eyes off the ball when it comes to de-mining work that no one has developed and fielded an air deployable mine clearing line charge (MCLC).

It can’t be some insurmountable engineering challenge to integrate a MCLC with a flying munitions dispenser so you basically fly a number of those over a minefield and they just deploy enough MCLCs to punch a path through a minefield so your mechanised units can race through at full speed instead of crawling along at the speed of the ABV. If timed well, the massive dust cloud from the MCLC detonations might also serve as an effective smokescreen for the attackers.

This is the sort of thing you would expect a bunch of engineering undergrads to be able to mock up as their final year project since all the major components are basically off-the-shelf items.

You decided to post an off-topic rant in which you dismissed an entire field of military engineering that armies all over the world develop as part of their routine operations as well as all the military-technical universities which have actual "bunches of undergrads" working on specific military-focused problems in said field as part of their education.

Anyway...

Crossing an area at full speed if it hasn't been properly recce'd is extremely risky. The reason being that ground structure isn't identical everywhere and either on its own or due to several 60t tanks going at 40km/h disturbing the ground structure it can collapse in places leading to this:

M1 stuck.jpg

There problem here is that there's no way to tell if the ground can support a tank unless you drive a tank over it. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't and sometimes it does but you slide down and it doesn't anymore. One really needs to see a tank platoon or company during exercise to understand the challenges because they're far from obvious. The common sense on what tanks can and can't do is very wrong because unlike civilian vehicles which move over hard surfaces designed specifically for vehicle movement tanks move over unprepared surfaces. Driving a tank is more like walking across a river. Roads are built to be driven on in controlled manner. Tanks go where maneuver is tactically advantageous meaning you drive the tanks where the enemy doesn't expect you to drive it.

There's an entire sub-field of military engineering called "getting tanks across". That's how much of a challenge it is to move such mass from A to B.

Also contrary to wheeled vehicles tanks have excellent braking on hard surfaces due to large friction area of their tracks but they can be at a disadvantage when moving through soft ground. While wheeled vehicles get stuck in mud due to point pressure, tanks can get locked in a slide where the driver loses control of the vehicle. And then they can get stuck.

The "massive dust cloud from the MCLC detonations" is the condition that any tank driver wants to avoid as it may easily lead to driving off the cleared path. Good practice also requires that the cleared path is at least visually assessed before proceeding forward.

The way the line charge works is that it creates a uniform shockwave front that detonates the mines through pressure and clears the mines that are not detonated off the blast area. For that the charge has to be continuous and as uniform as possible because mines are designed to be triggered by very specific conditions and hardened against blast damage. You can't clear it by multiple dispersed charges because then the shockwave front will not be uniform and may cause some of the undetonated mines to fall within the cleared path. It only takes a single mine to halt an entire column and if the mine is dropped somewhere in the middle of the cleared path it may detonate under one of the following tanks blocking the ones in the front from retreating.

The pressure necessary to achieve that is significant and the design of line charges is optimal at around ~6-7kg per metre which at approximately 100m length of charge gives 600-700kg plus the launching rocket. The charges are designed in such manner so as to ensure that they will fall on target area in as predictable and controlled manner as possible. Because of how resistant to blast mines are even 1-2m off target can put a live mine in the path of a tank during the crossing.

The cleared path needs to also be straight so as to not force the driver to make random turns, especially as tanks moving over soft ground will disrupt it further making it difficult to tell apart where the safe area is and where it isn't. And in general driving a tank isn't nearly as easy as people think it is. And a live mine may be just next to your track.

Finally the reason why breaching operations are so difficult is because they are the mechanised equivalent of tightrope walking which is performed by an entire unit at the same time while under fire which usually results in being effectively blinded and all of it has to happen within as short a span of time as possible because as soon as the breaching operation is detected the area will be covered by artillery fire and then by cluster munitions with anti-tank mines to prevent recovery.

Dropping a line charge from aircraft has all kinds of limitations the obvious one being that it's a large object - constrained more by volume than mass - that needs to come in at least 50m sections. Then the placement of the charges must be precise and that is very difficult for a fast-moving aircraft dropping an object which will be affected by not insignificant degree of air resistance and all other forces. And you can't drop it from low altitude because if the mines go off they may damage the aircraft.Any aircraft that isn't moving fast and is capable of lifting the charge is too expensive to risk shootdown.

------------

I wanted to post a map that a made over the weekend - a map of major roads between the front line and the main Russian line of defense in the Zaporozhia. The image is large - 4600x2300 pixels - but it shows the main constraints of maneuver and logistics.

The roads are as shown on OpenStreetMap at scale "12":
  • orange - "yellow" roads on OSM@12, all with numbers,
  • yellow - "wide white" local roads on OSM@12 , some of which have numbers
  • red - major national roads/highways
  • black - railways, paired with "wide white" class roads
  • purple - front line
  • blue - russian defensive lines as indicated by satellite imagery
  • darker lines on greyscale background - field roads and minor gravel roads.
Ua SO map 1_20230611.jpg

Note the scales around the map.

I've made a similar analysis last year w/r to Kherson but i can't remember if I posted it here. It was based on what i know of tactics and all the engineering and logistical factors and the actual movements of both Russian and Ukrainian forces essentially matched my predictions so i thought I will share it so that some of you - at least those who are interested in study of military operations - can use it as learning aid. It's not perfect but I do recommend you give it a look as remembering this particular network of roads and railways is very useful for contextualising movements of both sides. I did not include smaller roads because as Kherson proved they are not treated as major arteries. I actually thought that roads one category lower would still be prioritised but Russian forces treated them no different than movement across field. Those I put in colour were treated as major lines of communication and maneuver was conducted along them. If it feels wrong because there are gaps on the map - that's not an error. That's the actual road density there.

Also another interesting observation - but one that i didn't indicate on the map - is that when you connect the red dots north of the frontline, which are locations of Russian arty strikes on 11/6/23 then the approximate 20km and 35km ranges for 122mm and 152mm artillery fall exactly along the main road networks. This means that Russian artillery is using those roads for supply and maneuver and that will have major consequences if AFU manages to close in to the main line of defenses (blue) because then Russian artillery will have to retreat to stay out of range of Ukrainian light artillery (105/122mm and 120mm mortars) and that will mean moving it off the roads that enable fast movement.

800px_Ua SO map 2.jpg

The area between the main line of defense and the coastal M14 highway is even less well developed than in the north.

This is very serious because it indicates that Russia has no depth for defensive maneuver because of lack of roads. That in turn means that once the fighting reaches this main line of defense in blue we will see fighting on the scale that is comparable to the Russian spring offensive/phase 2 in 2022 i.e. Lysychansk/Severodonetsk. AFU has to break it to collapse the front and Russia must hold it and once AFU gets in range the casualties will equalise. It will be brutal.

First warning: stop insulting people regardless of how they view things
 
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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
It must have been the deployment of the 2 Chechen units that broke through then.

The Ukrainian positions have long been worn out as the town has been literally reduced to rubble. There's nothing to defend and nothing to hide with. Add TOS units now being used.

I think it's only one Akhmat unit in Marinka. The second new Akhmat unit is Akhmat-South but this is deployed in Zaporzhyzhia.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Seems the Russians have gotten close to the parking lot in Zaporozhye though can't post the video as there are several dead charred bodies all around the Bradleys and one of the Bradleys still had a running engine. I do remember several pro-ukraine accounts commenting that everybody survived which made it superior to whatever else the Ukranians were using.


A T-72B3M or T-90M destroying what seems a disabled Bradley

 

Right_People

Junior Member
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Ukrainian units that attacked in their offensive 6/4-6/11th so far:

1st tank
1st Brigade
72nd brigade
56th brigade
57th brigade
24th brigade
3rd brigade
110th brigade
59th brigade
79th brigade
23rd brigade
31st brigade
37th Brigade

Armored units with NATO training & equipment, not used yet:

116th Brigade
47th Brigade
33rd Brigade
21st Brigade
32nd Brigade
118th Brigade
117th Brigade
82th Brigade

From open sources and the leak (others can chime in for correction). Basically they have 8 NATO armored brigades left that haven't been used yet but have sustained heavy losses with the other brigades.

Ukraine's strategic reserve of 12 NATO equipped armored brigades have approx. 1500 AFVs (tanks + IFV) more or less. They have expended approx. 10-20% of the vehicles (knocked out, destroyed or captured) to little effect so far. If they lose 2% a day this offensive could go on for max. 4-6 weeks.
47th is used, and almost destroyed by now.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
I think Russians are incapable of doing maneuver warfare at large scale, unless there’s some major collapse un Ukrainian lines (unlikely). Russian reserves at this point and a portion of many deployed units are filled by mobiks. It seems these guys have varying levels of experience and training, but for guys with no combat experience it might be as little as 2-3 months. (Anecdotal experience:
Russian reserves train in the exactly same timeframe Ukrainian ones do. No time magic on either side.
Also, I don't understand the derision to mobilized troops from both sides.

We aren't in 19th-century Prussia anymore, mobilizations actually bring in more capable human capital into the armed forces.
In Europe, in most cases, military career - especially one without much progress - isn't exactly a sign of brightness and capability.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
The War Zone put out an article about the breach attempt. Several contradictions which make this seem more an attempt at whitewashing what happened than a serious analysis, namely the fact that they claim that the breach attempt was conducted according to doctrine but the attempt at rescuing the initial group goes against this doctrine as the risk of losing more people and equipment was too great.

Also kind of tries to frame the other Bradleys almost running into the fire of a third Bradley as something else other than the likely mistake it was

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From looking at the available images and video, the expert concluded that the second platoon’s advance likely ground to a halt after the lead breaching vehicle either struck a mine or suffered a mechanical problem. But contrary to some commentary, the expert said that it appears under the circumstances the Ukrainians performed as well as could be expected and as close to established doctrine as possible.

“These guys are now withdrawn from the breach site to suppressive fire and you're seeing the crews act, reacting correctly,” the expert said. The dismounted troops tossing the smoke grenade and the operable Bradley crew using its advanced optics to scan for threats “shows these guys were well-trained,” the expert said.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
The War Zone put out an article about the breach attempt. Several contradictions which make this seem more an attempt at whitewashing what happened than a serious analysis, namely the fact that they claim that the breach attempt was conducted according to doctrine but the attempt at rescuing the initial group goes against this doctrine as the risk of losing more people and equipment was too great.

Also kind of tries to frame the other Bradleys almost running into the fire of a third Bradley as something else other than the likely mistake it was

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No, the article this time is very much on point.
The only problem is they noticed it only now, and not during Ugledar.
 
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