The War in the Ukraine

Aegis21

Junior Member
Registered Member
I remember a year ago, it was winter cold + oil/gas embargo will force West to end support to Ukraine.

Then it was Infrastructure attacks to force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia.

Then shift towards Ukraine depopulation and economic doom/debt to end Western support.

The goalpost is shifted an unsuccessful counteroffensive will end Western support to Ukraine.

It's time to recognize no effort short of regime change will end Western support for Ukraine... These open-ended predictions about ending Western support is too uncertain and risky to inform any war strategy and planning.
Well, they’ve never committed to any of these fully.
1) Russia continued to supply oil & gas to Europe through the winter.
2) Russians only attacked small 330kV transformers that could be easily repaired within days. Very few or no attacks on power plants or 750kV transformers (huge waste of missiles).
3) Ukrainian depopulation is true - to some extent. However, they still have enough to continue conscripting and allowing the country to operate. Economics don’t matter because the whole country is bankrolled by the west.
4) I don’t really know if it will end Western support, but there will be a lot of pressure both on Ukraine and Russia to negotiate. This will happen regardless of the outcome. If Russia can defend well, they will be able to get a better deal.
5) Regime change must have been the initial plan, there would be no other way to succeed with inferior forces. Think of something like the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. The assassination of Amin in Operation Storm-333 allowed Soviets to establish control over the country and install a more favorable leader. The real question is, why were Russians unable to do this?

Honestly, Russians would be able to win easily if the allocated the resources necessary for war. Putin didn’t want war and never had contingencies for the SMO turning into a drawn out conflict.
 

Right_People

Junior Member
Registered Member
For comparison - on day 13 of invasion Oryx counted Russian losses at ~140 mbt and ~300 ifv/apc and that was when Russia was gaining ground.
Good grief, why do some people try to put Oryx as a source?

Let's do a little intellectual exercise in the form of an "audit" of Oryx's work.
For this I focus on the M-777, the reasons are 5:

1- There is no misidentification, only Ukraine operates M777s and they are quite distinct from other artillery systems, both Soviet and NATO.
This is important, seeing the burnt chassis of a BMP-1 that both armies use in large numbers, you can really tell that it belongs to whoever you want, in fact there are quite a few cases of soldiers posing with their own destroyed equipment without realising it.

2-They have been in use for a year and a half, i.e. it is not a "delay in counting" error, as is the case now with the Leopards.

3-They are the most numerous NATO artillery system delivered to Ukraine.

4-Due to the fact that the majority of attacks are with Lancets, we have two means of monitoring the results, the Lancet's own camera, as well as the reconnaissance UAV that usually monitors the attack.

5-We have a counterpart to Oryx that has kept a detailed account and is much more scrupulous than Oryx's, as I will comment below.
This is LostArmour, unlike Oryx, LostArmour has been in the "business" since 2014, his summary of the losses of both sides in that period is incredibly detailed, even putting the service records of particular tanks, in which units he was in, in which bases he stayed etc.
The only flaw I take away from him is that in general, he works slow in comparison to Oryx.


Thus:

Oryx lists 52 155mm M777A2 howitzers, 33 destroyed and 20 damaged.
Here we have the first interesting aside, Oryx's way of justifying casualties:
2002-m777-destr-06-03-23.jpg
In many times simple captures, in this particular case it is the destroyed M777 number 22, is there any way to verify that the Lancet reached the target? Where is the rest of the video?

Another interesting issue is the counting of "non-combat casualties", but only for the Russians.

We see that Oryx counts a Mig-31 lost by Russia IN FINLAND!
1686437608102.png
Applying that methodology, why didn't Ukraine lose a Leopard in Poland when its turret was ripped off?
1109628347_0_35_710_434_1920x0_80_0_0_b1e3152eb3d7577d6743b8362a7a7a0d.jpg


Other justifications are simply ridiculous, and of a clearly blatantly biased methodology.
So let's look at justification number 28 Ka-52 destroyed (there are several similar justifications), a Telegram entry of a funeral of a pilot.
1003-ka52-destr-12-07-22.jpg
well, again if we apply this logic, why not add 5 aircraft type devices destroyed, as this was reported by the Khmelnytskyy regional military administration on 29 May 2023 after a Russian attack. (or all the ukranian pilot funerals) of which he barely mentions a few ...
photo_2023-06-11_00-34-54.jpg




Back to the case of the M777, LostArmour offers a superb list in Excel format, detailing the level of damage and link to the video of the particular action, as well as a detailed entry on their website (more up to date):
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As you can see we have dates, geolocations, link to the file that justifies it.
We also have a graph by time, one indicating the weapon attacking the M777 and the results.

We have 100 attacks on M777.
We have:
51 destroyed
17 damaged
19 unknown
7 "failures".
1 captured.

Well, we have that against the 52 total losses of Oryx (damage and destruction) 51 confirmed destructions, practically the same number.
51 being 54% more. Well an interesting figure of variation between the two mediums.
As I said this is just a small "audit" on one of the most mediatic and recognisable systems of the war.
The kind of cheating that could be going on in other systems that both sides use in large numbers, is wide, again, as I have already exposed the biased and fraudulent methodology that Oryx has, who even went so far as to show this as proof:
oryx.jpg
In short, Oryx is a source of rather dubious quality.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Also Germany is an automotive powerhouse with decades of tradition. Per Wiki vehicle production in 2021 in Germany was at 3,3m vehicles while German companies (in 2017, per Wiki) made 17m vehicles. In comparison Russia in 2021 only made 1,5m vehicles and in 2022 it was little over 600k due to sanctions and war. Russia's heavy vehicle industry runs on inefficient and outdated but cheap designs which are affordable due to price of energy in Russia. Civilian industry always forms the foundation for human capital in defense industry.
Russia heavy combustion engine industry is highly reliable thats why that Kamaz won so many Paris Dakar rallies. and Russia has tested tanks both in Indian desert and Mideast/Africa. Germans were so heavily fine by US that German are running away as fast from combustion engines even though they lack battery tech. That electrifying America is part of that force investment to compensate for German lack of honesty. Germany is not automotive power house for things that matter in the field.
This person created OPEC+ so he knows Mideast elites like no one else due his long serving in that role but the moment he overstep recognize borders all escort cars changed to Japanese.

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1686438719078.png
 

Fedupwithlies

Junior Member
Registered Member
D

Deleted member 24525

Guest
Does anybody know why Russia is suddenly seeing so much success with drones?

Where is the Ukrainian EW and air defense?

Conversely, I feel like I haven't seen Ukrainian drones having success for quite some time. Have they run out?

Sorry if this is a stupid question. I haven't been keeping up with the situation for months.
Ukrainian air defense ammunition has been depleted by the missile campaign and from the news it seems like Russia has effectively improved its EW to counter Ukrainian drones.
@gelgoog That scene of like a dozen guys getting hit by artillary was brutal. Can you put in a heads up next time?
 
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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Obtf Kaskad shows various Ukrainian vehicles, some life, some damaged, abandoned and destroyed. This confirms their role in the drone and artillery strikes in Zaporozhye.


Ground units of the Obtf Kaskad participated in the defense of Novodonetsk. Here a member shows off an abandoned and damaged British Mastiff MRAP.


Some IFV firing observed under night vision. Russian ATGM reaches out and strikes it. Attack credited to a unit of 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment.


In the Artemovsk sector, a loaded Ukrainian APC takes hit from a Russian ATGM. Attack is from the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Northern Fleet.

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Part of this video here, compiled by the 200th showing other armored vehicle kills in this sector.

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