The War in the Ukraine

TK3600 said:

What feels off to me is the arrowhead armor. It indicates it is at least Leopard 2A5 model, or possibly higher. I have not heard of more advanced model than 2A4 being sent to Ukraine.

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On Tuesday, Berlin confirmed that 18 Leopard 2A6 tanks, along with ammunition, spare parts and two armored recovery vehicles, had arrived in Ukraine.

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gelgoog said:

Several countries pledged Leopard 2A6 or A5 to Ukraine.

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"As of late April, we have the following officially announced commitments, sorted by countries and modifications:

• Germany: 18 Leopard 2A6
• Portugal: 3 Leopard 2A6
• Sweden: 10 Leopard 2A5 (Strv 122)
• Poland: 14 Leopard 2A4
• Spain: 10 Leopard 2A4
• Norway: 8 Leopard 2A4
• Canada: 8 Leopard 2A4
• Netherlands and Denmark: 14 Leopard 2A4"

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Usually these pledge takes a while to deliver. Evidently we are seeing them not only delivered but also on frontline in less than 2 month.

Someone has kindly matched up the first group with the 2nd group of Bradleys that showed up later, so we can get a better idea on how the second group decided to swing around.

HighGround said:

I read the aforementioned article a couple weeks ago when Kofman retweeted it actually. I am always interested in the opinions of NCOs and junior staff, but at the same time, lower-level officers tend to have a habit of being very narrowly Eurocentric (or maybe I should say NATO-centric?).

Doctrines evolve, tactics evolve, and so do combat manuals. Especially as they are meaningfully applied in the field, rather than officer halls. This is true of NATO as well. The failure in Vietnam has led to significant revisions in US manuals and an evolution in air power doctrine (among others). The same happened to the Red Army in the aftermath of its intervention in Afghanistan.

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I agree as well. While the article did point out a lot of unfavorable characteristics of the Ukrainian military, they definitely had a NATO-centric perspective.

I don't think there is something inherently wrong with old Soviet style doctrine. Or something inherently wrong with NATO's, China's, or otherwise. Every military will have its gaps. What is important, is that a State's military power have a doctrine. That is has a cohesive way of war that can adapt and evolve to meet modern challenges.

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I would say that the old Soviet system did have problems. The Chinese and Vietnamese both didn’t implement such a heavy top-down structure despite the Soviet influence. Both of them focused on initiative, and the Chinese definitely recognized the benefits of unscripted training and the importance of learning from failures. Both of which were brought up in that article as a major concern point. Yes, I do agree that doctrines change as the situation changes. However the reigning form of war is combined arms maneuver warfare backed with flexible and adaptable systems. The more inflexible Soviet doctrine didn’t evolve to meet such a criteria.

The main issue with some of the way NATO has approached Ukrainian training, is that they are trying to re-create a new army, instead of simply improving on what's already there. They look down on older practices (ironically, one could argue that it was Soviet legacy equipment and mobilization infrastructure that saved Ukraine in its first three weeks) and try to reject everything in favor of "modernity" or Western style practices.

In my opinion, this is an error, and this approach has led to what Kofman described as two armies co-existing in one organization, which is clearly a source of friction and mis-communication in the army.

Instead, NATO trainers need to focus on cohesion, and improving on parts that are deficient, while maintaining or evolving the parts that work well. NATO's commentary and approach, is ironically reminiscent of the typical caricature of a Communist Commissar. Detached, and un-involved in the actual work, while passing down judgement on the people who actually do the work.

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I agree too. While I am not a particular fan of the old Soviet practice, I do agree with you on how the Western trainers are trying to replace an entire military culture. That is practically impossible.

Right_People said:

Well, let's remember that the Russians most likely destroyed 5 of the Su-24s that Poland gave up that were carrying the missile while they were on base.

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Well … you should check your sources! Since when did Polsnd operate Su-24 which were given to Ukraine???

Polsnd transferred some old MiG-29, but those are not capable for the Storm Shadow.

if Ukraine's counteroffensive fails, any chance the West will stop sending weapons, forcing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia?

LawLeadsToPeace said:

It is hard to say. People focus too much on the equipment but never on the training, military culture and organization. Assuming the footage of the wrecked Bradley’s and Leopards is real, one can argue that the losses were caused by the lack of combined arms training, knowledge and leadership along with various other variables such as the higher ups’ adherence to the old Soviet doctrine and, worst of all, lying in training which most likely translates into lying on the battlefield. All of this is mentioned by former US Special Forces officers who are in Ukraine training battalion and company officers as we speak in this article:

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After one year of fighting, anyone seriously think that the Ukrianan doesn't deliver better perfomance than any other army except Russia?

I mean, the USA/German/Italian instructors,military organisation and policial class has ZERO real war experience.
They has lot of good fight against indigenous peple using tropical fruits as weapon, lacking real weapons and organisation.

Saying that anyone else could pull better result with the NATO weapons is like saying a chap with a new driving license could fare better than a professional drive with 20 years of experience, because the rookie has lot of fresh and proper training.

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Leopard 2 was hit by kornet

Ru Grad team with PARS-S Stepashka for protection against drones

Today, the Ukrans made another attempt to attack the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.

In the morning, the electronic warfare troops stopped 3 Ukrainian drones with ammunition from an RPG-7 grenade launcher, flying in the direction of the nuclear power plant. The downed drones were immediately destroyed by a controlled explosion, no damage or injuries were reported.

Deino said:

Well … you should check your sources! Since when did Polsnd operate Su-24 which were given to Ukraine???

Polsnd transferred some old MiG-29, but those are not capable for the Storm Shadow.

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Apparently they were modified in Poland to carry Storm Shadow missiles.


Never heard of this website though (and it seems Pro-RU), so take it with a pinch of salt.

Temstar said:

Someone has kindly matched up the first group with the 2nd group of Bradleys that showed up later, so we can get a better idea on how the second group decided to swing around.

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Nerds... lol jk.

Anyway,

This is an account to watch in my opinion. I've been following him for a long time, and I use him to gauge Ukrainian officer perceptions, or at least what Ukrainians want the public to perceive. Claims to be an officer, tweets are typically very level-headed. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if he was actually an SBU officer. In fact, that's what I personally think.


In particular, this tweet piqued my interest.


I think that Ukraine may have, or are attempting to at least secure either a town for a photo-op, or a tactically important location somewhere. I would not be surprised to see some sort of Ukrainian success in the next few days. I am growing increasingly skeptical though, that whatever success Ukraine will find, will be commensurate with the losses they've taken in the last week.

Moreover, unlike Balaklia, there are multiple defense lines. This is a true defense-in-depth, and I think it's unlikely that there will be any decisive breakthrough. Plenty of time and material left though so I'll end my speculations there.